Choosing Foresight Projects Presentation to ForSociety Conference Karl Cunion, Assistant Director, U

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Choosing Foresight ProjectsPresentation to
ForSociety Conference Karl Cunion, Assistant
Director, UK Foresight December 2004
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Methodological Sessions

• To assess the state of the art within the topic
  identifying foresight issues
• To exchange methodological experience
• To prepare a framework for further activity
  within the ERA-NET project

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UK Foresight Programme

• Foresight produces challenging visions of the
  future to ensure effective strategies now.
• It does this by providing a core of excellence in
  science-based futures expertise and access to
  leaders in government, science and business.

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Project process
Review
Core Proposition
Authoritative science
Analysis and Engagement
Action

• Flexible futures tools
• Modelling
• Exploring issues

• Commitments
• Ownership

• Peer reviewed
• Cross disciplinary

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Foresight Projects

• Cognitive Systems
• Flood Coastal Defence
• Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
• Cyber Trust Crime Prevention
• Brain Science, Addiction Drugs
• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
• Detection Identification of Infectious Diseases

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Selection Criteria

• Potential Foresight projects are selected
  according to a standard set of criteria to be
  approved, projects must tackle issues which
• look ahead at least ten years
• are driven by science and technology
• have outcomes that will influence decision-makers
• are not covered by work taking place elsewhere
• require an inter-disciplinary approach
• and command the support of key stakeholders
• But, ultimately, they will not proceed without
  broad Ministerial approval, and the agreement of
  a Minister in the key Department to chair the
  Stakeholder Group

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Stakeholder Groups
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Project Timetable
April 2002
April 2004 April 2005 April 2006
April 2003
Cognitive Systems
Flood Coastal Defence
Exploiting E-M Spectrum
Cyber Trust Crime Prevention
Brain Science, Addiction Drugs
Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
Detection Identification of Infectious Diseases
Project 8?
Project 9?
Project 10?
Project 11?
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Phase One

• Cognitive Systems
• Flood Coastal Defence
• Pilot Projects started before comprehensive,
  accountable mechanism in place.
• Ideas emerged through discussion around
  Government and research community, and vision of
  senior officials in Office of Science Technology

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Phase Two

• Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum
• Cyber Trust Crime Prevention
• Brain Science, Addiction Drugs
• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems
• Detection Identification of Infectious Diseases
• Emerged from 2002 consultation process

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Phase Two

• July 2002. Hothouse of prominent (academic)
  visionaries
• October December. Open consultation, plus
  discussion with
• Government Departments
• Research Councils
• Institutions and Organisations
• February 2003. Ministerial approval of general
  concepts still requires development of scope,
  stakeholder support, and availability of
  resources.

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Phase Three

• No major events, but ideas from a variety of
  sources
• Previous Foresight participants
• Government Departments
• Institutions and Organisations
• Individuals
• Programme of engagement with specific groups
• Our own finger on the pulse
• Seek common format for proposals relating to
  selection criteria.
• OST Horizon Scanning Centre

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OST Horizon Scanning Centre

• Treasury Strategy for Science and Technology,
  2004 2014
• Need for Cross Government ST Horizon Scanning
  capacity
• Separate from Foresight projects
• Housed within Foresight Directorate
• Considering cross-Departmental issues, with high
  calibre secondees from Government, academia and
  business
• Likely to generate ideas for Foresight projects