Stockpile Stewardship: The Science and Economics of Our Nuclear Weapons Future

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Stockpile Stewardship The Science and
Economics of Our Nuclear Weapons Future

• Todd S. Palmer
• NE 319
• May 8, 2001

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Throughout this talk, think about

• Given a world with nuclear weapons,
• Should we worry about the safety and
  effectiveness of our aging weapons?
• What purpose(s) does nuclear testing serve?
• Can a stockpile stewardship program replace
  nuclear testing?
• Can or should we try to disinvent this
  technology?
• How does deterrence work?

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Recent events Bushs missile defense plan

• President states that the START treaty is a
  dinosaur.
• Reduce the number of different weapons in the
  stockpile
• Build missile defense shield
• Space based laser interception
• Ground based missile destruction
• Star Wars?

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Recent events Does Saddam have the bomb?
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Recent events Does Saddam have the bomb?
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Recent events

• May 1998 - India conducts nuclear tests

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Recent events

• About 2 weeks later - Pakistan follows suit

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Recent events
September 24, 1998 - Russia conducts subcritical
test

• Washington Times Article
• Novaya Zemlya Island test site
• Truchs unloading filler material detected by
  surveillance satellites
• Subcritical tests explosions not involving
  nuclear yield
• U.S. current policy subcritical tests do not
  violate the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty
• Also occurred in January, 1996
• August, 1997 seismic activity consistent with
  nuclear testing

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Outline

• Introduction Why should you listen to me?
• History Briefly, how did we get here?
• Weapons Physics How do they work?
• Nuclear Testing
• Stockpile Stewardship What is it?
• Where should you go for more information?
• Discussion What do you think?

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Introduction Why should you listen to me?

• Who am I?
• B.S. NE Oregon State, 1987
• M.S. Ph.D. NE Scientific Computing,
  University of Michigan
• 5 years of experience in A Division (Weapons
  Design) at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory
• Consultant Lawrence Livermore and Los Alamos
  National Laboratories

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Introduction

• More about me
• Up for tenure this year (keep your fingers
  crossed)
• Research interests reactor physics, numerical
  methods, parallel computer algorithms, transport
  theory, nuclear criticality safety
• Advising 7 graduate students
• Undergraduate recruiting director

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Background

• Fission
• Heavy nuclei (U-235, Pu-249) absorb a neutron and
  split into lighter nuclei, 2 or 3 neutrons and
  about 200 MeV of kinetic energy
• Fusion
• Light nuclei (H-2, H-3, Li-6) come together to
  form a heavy element with the release of several
  MeV of kinetic energy
• Uranium
• Naturally occuring radioactive element, with two
  major isotopes 99.49 U-238 (fissionable), 0.5
  U-235 (fissile)
• Plutonium
• Produced when Uranium atoms absorb neutrons and
  undergo radioactive decay Pu-238, Pu-239,
  Pu-240, Pu-241
• Criticality
• The degree to which a physical system permits a
  sustained nuclear chain reaction

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History How did we get here?

• 1895 - Roentgen discovers radiation
• X-rays emitted by a cathode ray tube
• 1905 - Einstein develops special theory of
  relativity
• Equivalence of mass and energy
• 1932 - Chadwick discovers neutron
• Alpha particles bombard beryllium nuclei knocking
  out particles with the mass of a proton but no
  electric charge.
• 1939 - Meitner and Frisch discover fission
• When uranium is bombarded with neutrons, the
  nucleus splits into lighter energetic nuclei and
  neutrons.
• 1940 - Seaborg discovers plutonium
• Radiochemist bombards uranium with neutrons and
  creates element 94 which fissions like U-235

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Scientists world-wide understood the implications.

• World War II is raging at a fever pitch
• Germany invades Poland
• Japanese bomb Pearl Harbor
• Germany invades USSR, advances in North Africa
• April 1939, Germany
• Reich Ministry of Education convenes secret
  conference on application of fission for weapons
• October 1939, United States
• Leo Szilard, Edward Teller and Eugene Wigner
  communicate concerns to President Roosevelt
• 1939, Soviet Union
• Igor Kurchatov alerts government to possible
  military significance of fission
• Early 1940, Great Britain
• Frish-Peirels Memorandum catalyzes efforts to
  develop a weapon.

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The Manhattan Project - Timeline
May 1942 Manhattan Engineering District
formed Dec, 2, 1942 Fermi Achieves first nuclear
chain reaction July 16, 1945 U.S. explodes first
nuclear device (Trinity) August 6, 1945 Little
Boy destroys Hiroshima August 9, 1945 Fat
Man destroys Nagasaki November 25,
1945 Oppenheimer forms Los Alamos Scientific
Laboratory September 2, 1952 Lawrence forms UC
Radiation Laboratory - Livermore
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Manhattan Project -Technological Advancements

• Fermi demonstrates working nuclear reactor at
  Stagg Field in Chicago
• Reactors at Hanford site in S. Central Washington
  produce plutonium for weapons
• Gaseous diffusion and electromagnetic isotope
  separation (enrichment) plants constructed in Oak
  Ridge, TN
• Chemical and other material properties of
  important radionuclides researched

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Weapons were quickly developed in other countries.
August 29, 1949 USSR explodes fission
device October 3, 1952 U.K. explodes fission
device November 1, 1952 U.S. explodes first
thermonuclear device November 22, 1955 USSR
explodes thermonuclear device November 8,
1957 U.K. explodes thermonuclear device February
13, 1960 France explodes fission device October
16, 1964 China explodes fission device June 17,
1967 China explodes thermonuclear device August
24, 1968 France explodes thermonuclear
device May 18, 1974 India explodes fission
device Pakistan South Africa Iraq (???)
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Weapons Physics How do they work?
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A Gun-Assembled Fission Device

• Hiroshima/Little Boy
• untested before use
• August 6, 1945
• 15 kilotons
• Fuel U-235
• Atomic Bomb
• Weight
• 10,000 lbs
• Relatively slow
• Cant use plutonium

Subcritical masses
Explosive propellant
Supercritical mass
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Hiroshima
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Implosion-Assembled Fission Device

• Trinity Test/Alamogordo Bombing Range, White
  Sands NM
• July 16, 1945
• 15 kilotons
• Nagasaki/Fat Man
• August 9,1945
• 15 kilotons
• Fuel Pu-239
• Weight
• 10000 lbs
• Atomic bomb

Before firing Just after firing
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Trinity blast - 10 seconds after firing
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A Boosted Fission Device

• Fission/fusion hybrid
• Fission bomb modified to include fusion fuel
• Deuterium (H-2)
• Tritium (H-3)
• George Shot
• May 8, 1951
• Enewatak atoll

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Multi-stage Thermonuclear Fusion Device

• Fission bomb acts as driver (primary)
• Fusion fuel region (secondary) implodes through
  radiation coupling
• Fusion fuel H-2 H-3
• Mike shot
• November 1, 1952
• Eneuwatak atoll
• 10.4 Megatons
• Weight
• Hundreds of lbs.
• Hydrogen bomb

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Mike shot
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What was left of the island chain...
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Nuclear Testing
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Why test nuclear weapons?

• Engineering reasons
• Will a design work?
• How close are our predictions
• Political reasons
• Look, we have the bomb!
• Our bombs are bigger than your bombs.
• Deterrence only works if the other guy believes
  that you can destroy him. Are old bombs still
  a deterrent?

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Global nuclear weapons tests (1998)
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How much did nuclear testing cost?
Overall cost 5821 billion dollars (1996
dollars)
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Components of U.S. nuclear weapons complex...

• Design
• Los Alamos
• Livermore
• Sandia
• Fabrication, Assembly and Fuel Production
• Pantex
• Y-12
• Rocky Flats (Inoperative)
• Hanford Reservation (Inoperative)
• Mound (Inoperative)
• Testing
• Nevada Test Site

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Stockpile Stewardship What does it mean?

• Long term DOE plan to meet DOD requirements in
  tough fiscal times
• Adjust to the new way in which business will be
  done
• fewer weapons
• fewer types of weapons
• no new weapon production
• aging stockpile
• no nuclear testing
• Three major elements
• Enhanced surveillance to understand and predict
  effects of aging
• Small efficient manufacturing capability
• Revalidation process to support assessment and
  certification

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Enhanced Surveillance

• Computational techniques to analyze material
  databases
• Advanced methods of examining corrosion
• scanning tunneling microscopes
• atomic force microscopes
• Sensors and non-destructive techniques
• endoscopic surgical tools
• fiber optic visualization
• Many opportunities for partnership with industry.

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Manufacturing and Refurbishment

• Goal Extend the life of current weapons systems
• replace important components
• remanufacture weapons cheaply and in an
  environmentally friendly manner
• Recycling of components
• Plutonium pit reuse
• Uranium parts rebuilding
• Computer modeling for better prediction of metal
  casting and extrusion
• High explosives?

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Science-Based Assessment and Certification
Without testing, how do we ensure that a
refurbished weapon will perform as well as the
original?

• National Ignition Facility (NIF)
• Accelerated Strategic Computing Initiative (ASCI)
• Above-Ground Hydrodynamic Experiments (AGEX)
• Hydronuclear tests

We must infer the safety of a weapon from related
physics calculations and experiments.
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National Ignition Facility

• 192 Laser beams deliver 1.8 million Joules of
  energy to ignite small fusion targets
• Worlds largest optical instrument
• Advance U.S. technology industries
• Optics
• Lasers
• Materials
• High-speed instrumentation
• Semiconductors
• Precision manufacturing
• Likely to be built at LLNL as follow-on to NOVA
  laser

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ASCI - Advanced Strategic Computing Initiative

• Improve computational physics modeling
  capabilities
• 3-D methods
• Massively parallel computers
• New physics
• Sandia, LLNL and LANL all getting new machines
  (50 million dollars)
• 45 million in codedevelopment

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AGEX - Above Ground Experiments

• Non-nuclear tests to investigate the behavior of
  implosion phase of detonation
• 16 million for new facility at LANL
• Dual-Axis Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility
  
• Contained Firing Facility at LLNL - upgrades
  costing 6.6 million
• Improvements in imaging
• Uses only conventional high explosives

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Hydronuclear Experiments

• Proposed, but not likely to happen
• Some nuclear material used, but only to better
  understand true behavior
• Negligible nuclear yield (lt 1 kt)
• Poses philosophical problems
• Is this a nuclear test or not?
• These tests performed during previous test
  moratorium in 1958-1961

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Where to go for more information...

• DOE Stockpile Stewardship position paper
• http//web.fie.com/fed/doe/oor/any/text/any/sto1.h
  tm
• High energy weapons archive
• http//www.pal.xgw.fi/hew
• LLNL, LANL web sites
• http//www.llnl.gov
• http//www.lanl.gov
• Sante Fe New Mexican Special Edition
• http//sfnewmexican.symtezzi.com/
• Bureau of Atomic Tourism
• Todds Atomic Homepage (not mine)
• http//neutrino.nuc.berkeley.edu/neutronics/todd.h
  tml

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So, what do you think?

• Should the U.S. rely on stockpile stewardship to
  ensure a reliable nuclear arsenal?
• Are nuclear weapons needed in a post cold war
  world?
• Can you ever put the nuclear genie back in the
  bottle?