Nuclear Weapons Today

1
Nuclear Weapons Today

• A presentation prepared by the Medical
  Association for Prevention of War

2
Nuclear Weapons Today

• The Weapons
• The Effects
• The Locations
• The International Response

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The Basics
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Nuclear Weapon Cores

• Fission weapons require fissile isotopes
• Most important - plutonium-239 (Pu-239) and
  uranium-235 (U-235)
• Some weapons are made from both isotopes
• Basic nuclear weapons rely on nuclear fission
  chain reaction to produce large amount of energy
  in a very short time

5
Nuclear Explosions

• Explosive power measured by the mass equivalent
  of TNT
• A 1 kiloton bomb has an explosive yield
  equivalent to 1000 tons of TNT
• A 1 megaton bomb has an explosive yield
  equivalent to 1,000,000 tons of TNT

6
Plutonium

• Weapons grade - produced in military
  plutonium-production reactors specifically for
  nuclear weapons use
• Reactor grade - produced in all nuclear-power
  reactors
• For electricity production, but can be used to
  make weapons

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Plutonium

• Powerful nuclear explosive
• Highly radioactive and toxic
• The half-life of plutonium is 24,500 years
• Remains hazardous for 250,000 years

8
Uranium

• Naturally occurring uranium contains 0.7 U-235
• Weapons use highly-enriched uranium (HEU) -
  proportion of U-235 increased
• Weapons grade - usually enriched to greater than
  90, but lower percentages still useable

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Separated Plutonium Stocks
Country Military plutonium Civil plutonium
Russia 95 tonnes 88 tonnes
US 47 tonnes 45 tonnes
UK 3.2 tonnes 96.2 tonnes
France 5 tonnes 78.6 tonnes
China 4.8 tonnes -
Israel 0.6 tonnes -
India 0.4 tonnes 1.5 tonnes
Japan - 5.4 tonnes
Germany - 12.5 tonnes
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Estimated HEU stocks
Country Military highly-enriched uranium
Russia 1070 tonnes
US 575 tonnes
UK 21.9 tonnes
France 29 tonnes
China 20 tonnes
Pakistan 1.1 tonnes
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Core requirements

• A 20 kt nuclear bomb requires
• 4-5 kg of weapons grade plutonium OR
• 10-15 kg of weapons grade uranium
• A 1kt nuclear weapon could be made with
• 1 kg of weapons-grade plutonium OR
• 2.5 kg of weapons-grade uranium

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The fission process

• Nucleus of U-235 or Pu-329 captures a neutron -
  U-236, Pu-240 nucleus formed.
• U-236, Pu-240 very unstable, rapidly split into
  two (fission)
• Neutrons and a large burst of energy are emitted
• Complete fissioning of 1 gram of U-235 releases
  23,000 kilowatt-hours of heat

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The fission process
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Critical mass

• Each nucleus undergoing fission must produce a
  neutron that splits another nucleus
• Critical mass - the minimum mass of fissile
  material that can sustain a nuclear fission chain
  reaction
• Sphere is optimum shape

15
Nuclear explosions

• Nuclear explosions occur at super-critical masses
• Basic weapons contain fissile material less than
  critical mass.
• Within half a millionth of a second
• Temperatures - hundreds of millions degrees
  centigrade, and pressures - millions of
  atmospheres, build up

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Fusion

• Isotopes of hydrogen - deuterium and tritium
• Extremely high temperatures required for reaction
  to occur
• Require a fission bomb to provide energy to
  initiate reaction
• Used mainly to boost fission bombs - increase
  fission rate by providing more high energy
  neutrons

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Main Components Of Nuclear Weapons

• High quality, high purity conventional high
  explosives and reliable detonators
• Electronic circuits
• A tamper and neutron reflector
• A core of fissile material
• A neutron source

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Detonation techniques

• Gun technique
• Only used with HEU
• Mass of sub-critical HEU fired at another - sum
  of two masses supercritical
• Simple technique
• Long assembly time
• Hiroshima bomb

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Detonation techniques

• Implosion technique
• 1/10 the assembly time of the gun technique
• HEU or plutonium can be used
• Fissile core surrounded by conventional high
  explosives

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Detonation techniques

• Implosion technique
• Explosives detonate and uniformly compress the
  core and increase its density, making it
  super-critical
• Neutrons also fired into fissile material to
  encourage fission chain reaction

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Delivery Systems

• Gravity Bombs
• Ballistic Missile Warheads
• Cruise Missile Warheads
• Other Forms
• Anti-ballistic Missiles
• Anti-submarine Warfare

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Tactical vs. Strategic Nuclear Weapons

• Tactical
• US and Russian definition - less than 500 km
  range
• Strategic
• Intended to be detonated in other countries, i.e.
  intercontinental delivery

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Launch on Warning (LoW)

• Retaliation with nuclear weapons to a perceived
  nuclear attack by another state
• Response to a warning (by radar or satellite
  sensors) of attacking missiles
• Decision must be made in minutes

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The Effects of Nuclear Weapons
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August 6, 1945

• US detonated a 15 kiloton bomb over Hiroshima,
  Japan
• Deaths 66,000
• Injuries - 69,000

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August 9, 1945

• US detonated a 21 kiloton bomb over Nagasaki,
  Japan
• Deaths - 73,884
• Injuries - 74,909
• 6.7 million square metres leveled

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Hiroshima and Nagasaki

• Ground temperatures reached about 7,000 degrees
• Black rain containing radioactive fallout
  poured down for hours after the explosions

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Flash
• Intense flash of light, a thousand times brighter
  than lightning
• Pulse of heat radiation - sets fire to
  combustible material 14 km away
• Pulse of X-rays, lethal within 3 km

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Fireball
• Forms after the flash and rises in the air
• Can permanently blind people up to 80 km away
• All exposed body parts burned deeply within 10 km
• Superficial burns within fifteen km

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Blast
• Powerful blast wave - starts immediately, but
  travels slower than the flash and fireball
• Destroys everything within 2 km
• 100 fatalities within 3 km
• 50 of people killed within 8 km
• Major damage to buildings within 14 km, windows
  broken out to 20-30 km

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Blast
• Hurricane force winds, first outwards, then
  inwards
• Tornado force winds (six hundred km/hr), within
  four km - can drive glass splinters into people
• People picked up and hurled into any object
  strong enough to be still standing

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Firestorm
• Fires started by the first flash coalesce
• Cause sufficient updraft to form their own wind,
  which blows inwards from all sides - increasing
  the intensity of the fire
• Fire uses all available oxygen
• People caught in the open would melt, those in
  shelters would probably be baked

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Acute Radiation Exposure
• Central nervous system dysfunction
• Gastrointestinal damage
• Uncontrolled internal bleeding
• Bleeding from gums or within the skin
• Massive infections
• Death

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Delayed Radiation
• Everything in vicinity of explosion radioactive
• Hiroshima - radioactive rainstorms
• 1/3 of original fissile material not destroyed
• Widespread contamination
• Increased risk of developing cancer for survivors

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• In case of a nuclear bomb - dont bother to call
  your doctor
• No significant medical response possible
• Hospitals destroyed, most health care providers
  killed

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Medical response barriers
• No electricity, water or telephone service
• No drugs, sterile IV solutions, bandages
• Impassable roads, inaccessible areas
• Overloading of emergency/ hospital services in
  surrounding areas
• Rescuers risk radiation exposure

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated In The Air

• Medical problems one city of 1-2 million
• Fifty times more severe burns than burn beds in
  North America
• A years supply of blood for transfusions needed
  immediately
• Bottlenecks and delays due to the need for
  radioactivity assays
• Most of injured die, even from easily treated
  injuries

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One-Megaton Bomb Detonated At Ground-Level

• Enormous crater - 400 metres wide and 70 metres
  deep
• Major fallout of radioactive particulates,
  potentially lethal hundreds of kilometres
  downwind
• Area of blast damage and immediate deaths about
  one half of air detonation scenario
• More deaths days to weeks after bomb due to
  radiation sickness from fallout

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Effect Of Nuclear War

• Many nuclear bombs exploded
• Radioactive contamination of whole continents
• Permanent large scale damage to environment
• Nuclear winter

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Nuclear Winter

• Airborne contaminants absorb and reflect the
  suns rays
• Results in an extended period of semi-darkness
  and freezing temperatures
• Potentially generated from less than 100
  detonations

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Nuclear Winter
The view of the Earth from Apollo 10 (18 May
1969) from 26,000 nautical miles on its journey
to the Moon
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Nuclear Winter
This is what the world would look like after a
large-scale nuclear holocaust
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Nuclear Winter

• Nuclear winter could occur with detonation of 100
  nuclear warheads over major cities
• 30,000 weapons currently, deployed 90
  reduction of deployed weapons could still cause
  nuclear winter
• This puts nuclear weapons are in a league of
  their own

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Nuclear Weapons Testing
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Nuclear Testing

• 2,058 nuclear test explosions by 8 countries
• United States 1,030
• Russia (USSR) - 715
• France - 210
• United Kingdom - 45
• China - 45
• India - 7
• Pakistan - 6

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Effects of Nuclear Testing

• 2.4 million people estimated to die from cancer
  as a result of nuclear testing
• Tests sites around the world contaminated

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Nuclear Terrorism
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Nuclear Terrorism

• Only 20kg of HEU and 10kg of Plutonium needed
• Possibilities
• -primitive nuclear explosive
• -attacking a nuclear-power reactor
• -nuclear weapon
• -transport attack
• -dirty bomb

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Nuclear Material Availability

• Fissile materials are not controlled or accounted
  for effectively
• At least 40 kg of weapons-usable uranium and
  plutonium has been stolen
• Only 1/3 of an estimated 600 tonnes of
  weapons-usable material in the former USSR has
  been secured

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Terrorism And Nuclear Energy

• The International Atomic Energy Agency has
  confirmed that current nuclear power plants are
  structurally vulnerable against the Sept. 11
  attack scenario
• Over 120 documented cases of nuclear sabotage
• Credible threats reported by security agencies

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States Possessing Nuclear Weapons
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Nuclear Weapons -Declared States
Strategic Tactical Reserve Total
USA 4530 780 5000 10,310
Russia 3800 3400 11000 18,200
France 290 60 350
China 400 150 550
Britain 185 15 200
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Nuclear Weapons - De Facto States

• Israel 75-200
• India 40-50
• Pakistan 25-50
• Nth Korea - ?

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Nuclear Weapons
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Numbers by Region
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Arms Control and Disarmament
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International Law and Nuclear Weapons

• Multilateral (3 or more states)
• Bilateral (2 states)
• Unilateral (1 state)
• In existence proliferation, testing, geographic
  limitations
• Not in existence complete disarmament, fissile
  material control

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Key Terms

• Disarmament
• Decrease in number
• General and Complete
• Weapon Specific
• Abolition

• Arms Control
• Limitations
• General and Complete
• Weapon Specific
• Non-Proliferation

Vertical
Horizontal
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United Nations

• Main roles
• Forum
• Facilitating
• Verification Enforcement
• Education
• UN Treaties
• Antarctica Treaty, PTBT, Outer Space Treaty, NPT,
  Sea-Bed Treaty, NWFZs, CTBT

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IAEA

• Established by UN in 1957
• Nuclear non-proliferation
• Nuclear Science and Technology in Sustainable
  Development
• Nuclear Safety and Security

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Conference on Disarmament

• UN Body
• Established in 1979
• 66 countries are members
• Agreement by Consensus
• Based in Geneva, Switzerland

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Major Treaties (Bilateral Multilateral)

• INF
• START
• NPT
• CTBT

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Intermediate-Range Forces (INF) Treaty

• Missiles with ranges of 500-5,500 km
• World-first in disarmament talks
• Nuclear arsenal reduction
• Category of weapon eliminated
• Extensive on-site verification
• Signed 8 December 1987

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Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START)

• START I - signed in 1991
• US and Russia agreed to reduce ICBMs, SLBMs and
  warheads
• START II - signed in 1993
• Reduction of strategic nuclear arsenals to
  3,000-3,500 by 2007
• START III superceded by SORT
• SORT not verified or reversible

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Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)

• Opened for signature in 1968
• More signatures than any other arms control
  treaty
• Two-part bargain between nuclear weapon states
  (NWS) and non-nuclear weapon states (NNWS)

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(NPT) Article VI

• Each of the Parties to the Treaty
• undertakes to pursue negotiations in good faith
  on
• effective measures relating to
• cessation of the nuclear arms race
• at an early date and to
• nuclear disarmament,
• and on a
• treaty on general and complete disarmament
• under strict and effective international
  control.

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(NPT) Safeguards

• The International Atomic Energy Agency is
  responsible for a safeguards system to verify
  compliance with the NPT by conducting regular
  inspections of signatories to the Treaty

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(NPT) The Review Cycle

• Review Conference (RevCon)
• every 5 years over 4 weeks
• meetings held at United Nations in New York
• 1995 NPT indefinite extension
• 2000 13 Point Action Plan

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NPT 2005 Review

• 2-27 May 2005
• Disagreement over conference agenda
• -Nth Korea, Iran, CTBT, disarmament, non-NPT
  states, past decisions/agreements
• No substantive text produced

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Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty

• Opened for signature 24 September 1996
• Bans all nuclear tests
• All 44 Annex II must sign and ratify
• 3 Annex II states still to sign
• 11 Annex II states still to ratify
• CTBTO working from Vienna

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Fissile Materials Cut-Off Treaty (FMCT or
fissban)

• First suggested at the UN over 50 years ago
• Enthusiasm for a FMCT from early 1990s onwards
• Talks at Conference on Disarmament deadlocked
• Disagreement over
• -Existing stocks
• -Scope of the treaty

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Security Council Res 1540

• 28 April 2004
• Threat from Non-state actors
• Calls on states to enact national legislation
• Member states must report to the 1540 Committee

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International Court of Justice

• Advisory Opinion, July 8, 1996
• ...the threat or use of nuclear weapons would
  generally be contrary to the rules of
  international law applicable in armed conflict,
  and in particular the principles and rules of
  humanitarian law.

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International Court of Justice - Implications

• Supplements and reinforces the role of
  international laws (UN Charter, humanitarian law
  NPT etc)
• Nuclear weapons are now in effect illegal under
  international law

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Nuclear Free Zones (NWFZs)

• Treaties completely banning nuclear explosive
  devices in territories
• Latin America (Treaty of Tlatelolco)
• South Pacific (Treaty of Rarotonga)
• South East Asia (Treaty of Bangkok)
• Africa (Treaty of Pelindaba)
• Proposed zones for Central Asia, Central Europe
  and the Middle East

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Existing NWFZs
6
4
5
2
3
1
1. Antarctic Treaty 2. Treaty of Tlatelolco
3.Treaty of Rarotonga 4.Treaty of Bangkok
5.Treaty of Pelindaba 6. Mongolia
77
Status Of Key Treaties In 2006

• NPT Signed-188, Ratified-188
• CTBT Signed-175, Ratified-122 (Annex 2-33)
• FMCT Treaty in draft form
• NWC Treaty in draft form

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Status Of The Non-proliferation Disarmament
Regimes

• The risk of nuclear war has not gone away and is
  in fact increasing
• The opportunity presented by the end of the cold
  war was squandered
• Multilateral disarmament deadlocked

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The ICAN Campaign

• ICAN stands for International Campaign to Abolish
  Nuclear weapons

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ICAN

• ICAN to address the erosion of the global nuclear
  disarmament regime
• Nuclear Weapons Convention Review, update,
  progress
• MAPW to take a leading role within IPPNW and the
  global peace movement in the ICAN Campaign

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Model Nuclear Weapons Convention (NWC)

• Draft text produced by NGOs
• Submitted to the UN by Costa Rica in 1997
• NWC would prohibit
• development
• testing
• production
• stockpiling
• transfer
• use and threat of use

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What ICAN Would Aim For

• IPPNW members feel that a coordinated effort
  across states and institutions, in the framework
  of voluntary governmental and non-governmental
  participation, is necessary if there is to be a
  reversal of the nuclear threat.
• One element of such coordination will be a
  multilateral agreement to prohibit and eliminate
  nuclear weapons a Nuclear Weapons Convention.

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How To Work Towards A NWC

• It is strongly felt that the campaign for a NWC
  would need to be based on an Ottawa style process
  that lead to the Landmines Treaty a strong and
  effectively coordinated global coalition of NGO's
  and international organisations that drew in
  governments, starting with Canada, and achieved a
  treaty in the space of five years.

84
Phases for Elimination

• All States possessing nuclear weapons will be
  required to destroy their arsenals according to a
  series of phases.

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Step by Step

• The Convention outlines a series of five phases
  for the elimination of nuclear weapons beginning
  with
• taking nuclear weapons off alert
• removing weapons from deployment
• removing nuclear warheads from their delivery
  vehicles
• disabling the warheads
• removing and disfiguring the "pits"
• and placing the fissile material under
  inter-national control.

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Fissile Materials And Delivery Vehicles

• The Convention also prohibits the production of
  weapons-usable fissile material and requires
  delivery vehicles to be destroyed or converted to
  make them non-nuclear capable.

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Working Towards A Nuclear Weapons Free World

• Today some of these issues may appear
  intractable, and there is no guarantee that they
  are soluble.
• However, a robust and open debate is the most
  likely - if not the only - way to generate
  creative solutions and engage the broad
  transnational and cross-industrial involvement
  necessary for a nuclear weapons free world.

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Nuclear Weapons Knowledge

• Nuclear weapons knowledge cannot be disinvented.
  However, a vast portion of the knowledge, design
  and maintenance information can and should be
  destroyed once it is no longer necessary for
  disarmament.

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Our Responsibility

• Moreover, and precisely because we cannot return
  to a world innocent of nuclear weapons knowledge,
  the answer to the "genie out of the bottle" is to
  increase scientific responsibility and awareness
  of potential proliferation risks.

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Get Involved

• For further information about the NCW, please
  see http//www.ippnw.org/NWC.html
• or contact the Medical Association for Prevention
  of War (Australia)
• phone [phone]
• email mapw_at_mapw.org.au

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Medical Association for Prevention of War
Australia (MAPW) National Office P.O. Box
1379, Carlton VIC 3053, Australia Ph 03 8344
1637 Fax [phone] www.mapw.org.au
mapw_at_mapw.org.au Australian affiliate of
International Physicians for Prevention of
Nuclear War (IPPNW)