NASA

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Presented to Climate Change Science Program Office

• NASA
• Earth Science Enterprise Role in
• Global Change Research the Climate Change
  Research Initiative

Office of Earth Science Code Y NASA HQ July 23,
2002
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The NASA Vision
To improve life here, To extend life to
there, To find life beyond.
The NASA Mission
To understand and protect our home planet To
explore the universe and search for life To
inspire the next generation of explorers
as only NASA can.
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Earth Science in NASA
Earth Science is one of five Strategic
Enterprises in NASA and is about 10 of NASAs
annual budget.
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Agenda

• Opening Remarks M. Cleave
• Program Overview J. Kaye
• Earth Science Applications R. Birk
• Science Research and Products for CCRI
• Carbon, Ecosystem, Land Cover/Use Sciences
  D. Wickland
• Water Cycle J. Entin
• Climate Variability W. Abdalati
• Atmospheric Composition P. DeCola
• Computational Earth System Modeling R. Rood
• Summary J. Kaye

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OVERVIEW Jack Kaye
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NASA Role in USGCRP/CCRI

• NASA brings the global perspective from satellite
  and suborbital measurements to address climate
  and global change science questions.
• NASA has the end-to-end capability to develop
  technologies, models, deploy observing systems,
  utilize and provide products for decision support
  systems.
• NASA develops models that can utilize its
  observations for addressing science questions and
  providing forecasting and decision support.
• NASA enables scientists and engineers to provide
  the knowledge base to further develop new and
  enhanced remote sensing approaches to decision
  support
• NASA has the organizational capacity (systems
  engineering, program management partnering
  capability) to carry out large-scale, long-term,
  and multi-party programs.

NASAs work with NOAA made todays global weather
climate prediction possible, and the research
and technology development we are doing now will
enable improved predictive capability for the
nation in the future
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NASA Earth Science Enterprise Budget in CCRI
Inventory (M)

33M (directly related) distributed in top six
areas in FY03
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FY03 CCRI Impacts for NASA

• Deferred initiation of development of new
  missions for one year pending outcome of the
  review of CCRI/USGCRP
• Maintains missions in development where a pathway
  to transition to operational systems is
  identified (NPP, Landsat, Ocean topography)
• Defers start of ocean winds, total column
  ozone/aerosols, and solar irradiance
• Funds continuation of global precipitation
  measurement study defers commitments to partners
• Delays full funding of newly selected ESSPs FY02
  carryover funds to be used for risk mitigation
  during FY03
• Adds 3M for specific activities to benefit CCRI
• 2M for NPP validation
• 1M for aircraft observations of black carbon

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From Science to Decision Support
Applying NASAs system engineering approach and
ESE results to support decision-making tools,
predictions, and analysis for policy and
management decisions.
Science Models Data Assimilation
Predictions
Value benefits to citizens and society
Info. Products
- Oceans - Ice - Land - Coupled - Atmosphere
Decision Support Tools
Policy Decisions Management Decisions
High Performance Computing, Communication,
Visualization

• Assessments
• Decision
• Support
• Systems

Data
Measurements Monitoring
Observations
- Satellite - Airborne - Ground
Data Products
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Earth Science Enterprise
Develop a scientific understanding of the Earth
system and its response to natural and
human-induced changes to enable improved
prediction of climate, weather and natural
hazards for present and future generations
GOALS

• Science Observe, understand, and model the
  Earth system to learn how it is changing, and the
  consequences for life on Earth
• Applications Expand and accelerate the
  realization of economic and societal benefits
  from Earth science, information, and technology
• Technology Develop and adopt advanced
  technologies to enable mission success and serve
  national priorities

We provide end-to-end scientific information for
decision-makers
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Earth Science Enterprise Strategy Documents
Research Strategy
NASA Strategic Plan
Technology Strategy
Agency Level
Earth Science Strategic Plan
Applications Strategy
Education Strategy
Enterprise Level
Under development
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Recent Milestones

• Enhance the science base
• Two decade record of solar irradiance and
  atmospheric ozone concentration
• Major discoveries in patterns of change in polar
  ice caps and sea ice
• First globally consistent 30m land cover data
  sets based on 30 years of Landsat data
• Two decade record of global temperature
  humidity from satellites
• First global maps of marine and terrestrial
  biosphere
• First global CO distribution measurement from
  Terra
• Enhance observing monitoring systems
• Together with partners launched five space
  observation missions SAGE III, Jason-1, GRACE,
  Aqua and POES (NOAA-M) in FY02
• Conducting CRYSTAL-FACE campaign
• Improve decision support tools
• QuikSCAT data being employed in operational
  weather forecasts
• TRMM data being employed by NOAA for seasonal
  climate prediction
• Enhance exploratory research
• Selected / matured 38 new instrument concepts for
  future observing techniques
• Initiated partnership with NSF, NOAA, DOE, and 15
  universities to develop a common modeling
  framework

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An Extensive Web of Partnerships

• Interagency
• CCRI with 11 other agencies
• Joint weather satellite programs with NOAA DoD
• Landsat with DOI/USGS
• Research and applications with USDA, DOT, NSF,
• FEMA, USFS and others
• Academia
• Over 1000 grants with universities around the
  nation
• Extensive National Academy of Sciences Review
• International
• Over 290 agreements with approximately 60
  different countries
• International research programs with multilateral
  organizations, e.g. FAO, UNEP, WMO, WHO and CCAD
• Regional, State Local
• Associations of states, counties and cities
• Consortia of local governments and universities
• Commercial
• Traditional industrial partnerships
• Purchases of commercial data
• Targeted advanced technology collaborations

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Earth as a Dynamic System
Forces acting on the Earth system
Earth system responses
IMPACTS
Feedbacks
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Climate Forcings
NASA research and satellite observations enable
the global characterization of factors forcing
the climate system, and their relative strengths.

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Science Questions

• How is the global Earth system changing?
• What are the primary forcings of the Earth
  system?
• How does the Earth system respond to natural and
  human-induced changes?
• What are the consequences of changes in the Earth
  system for human civilization?
• How well can we predict future changes in the
  Earth system?

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Science Questions from the Research Strategy
Variability
Forcing
Response
Consequence
Prediction
Precipitation, evaporation cycling of water
changing?
Atmospheric constituents solar radiation on
climate?
Clouds surface hydrological processes on
climate?
Weather variation related to climate variation?
Weather forecasting improvement?
Global ocean circulation varying?
Changes in land cover land use?
Consequences in land cover land use?
Transient climate variations?
Ecosystem responses affects on global carbon
cycle?
Surface transformation?
Changes in global ocean circulation?
Coastal region change?
Trends in long-term climate?
Global ecosystems changing?
Stratospheric ozone changing?
Stratospheric trace constituent responses?
Future atmospheric chemical impacts?
Ice cover mass changing?
Sea level affected by climate change?
Future concentrations of carbon dioxide and
methane?
Motions of Earth interior processes?
Pollution effects?
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Establishing Priorities
Science Priority Criteria
Science Return Benefit to Society Mandated
Program Appropriate for NASA Partnership
Opportunity Technology Readiness Program Balance
Cost/Budget Context
Implementation Priority Criteria
Includes potential for handoff to operational
systems
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Answering Science Questions What is required?

• Research Analysis
• Sponsor competitively selected research, analysis
  and modeling via open solicitations structured
  around the science question
• Support basic Earth science RA and related EOS
  and other mission science teams, the suborbital
  science program, and the interdisciplinary
  research investigations.
• Observations
• Systematic measurement missions to detect trends
  against the background variability in the Earth
  system
• Exploratory measurement missions to examine
  lesser understood but important Earth system
  processes (particularly in forcings and
  responses)
• Technology
• Technology development and demonstration to
  reduce the cost and enhance the capability of
  future missions and data product capabilities
• Modeling
• Modeling via advanced computing to enhance the
  predictive power with space based observations
  and prepare accurate geophysically-consistent
  global data sets
• Data Management and Distribution
• Provide access to massive volumes of data, needed
  for increasingly fine resolution analyses and
  models and for the application of multiple data
  sets from many sources
• Improve access with the advent of a network of
  active archives, science and applicationns data
  and information partners, and data services
• Assessments and Decision Support
• The results of research will be used in periodic
  reassessment of questions and prioritization
• Data sets and models will be incorporated into
  decision support systems through partnership
  with other federal and non-federal agencies

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End-to-end Support in a Globally Integrated
Program
Space-based Sensors Data Relay
Atmosphere
Unpiloted Aerial Vehicles
Airborne Sensors
Field Campaigns
Research Balloons
Buoys
Ground Networks
Mid Latitude Regions
Research Vessels
Ground Stations
NASAs Partners ground, sea, air and in-situ
measurements augment space-based observations to
validate science results and provide
complimentary measurements
Polar Regions
Ground Stations
Research Balloons
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Large-scale, Long-term, Multi-party Projects
NASA system engineering and partnering capability
enable projects
AERONET An Internationally Federated Network

• Characterization of aerosol optical properties
• Validation of Satellite Aerosol Retrievals
• Near real-time data acquisition long term
  measurements

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Airborne/Suborbital Campaigns Provide Global
Access to Regional Processes

• Satellite/Space Data Product Calibration/Validatio
  n Algorithm Development
• Process Studies Model Validation
• Applications Development Demonstration
• Space Sensor and Remote Sensing Technology
  Development Demonstration
• Future capability for focused observations of
  persistent but finite phenomena and hazardous
  operations (UAVs)

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Multiple Satellite Observations Provide Global
Perspectives
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Systematic Measurement Missions
Existing
Through 2010

• Terra, Aqua
• Landsat 7
• TOPEX, Jason
• TRMM
• SeaWinds
• TOMS, OMI
• ACRIMSat/SORCE

• NPOESS Preparatory Project (2005/06)
• LandSat Data Continuity Mission (2005/06)
• Ocean Topography Mission (2006)
• Global Precipitation Mission (2008)
• Ocean Surface Winds (2006)
• Total Column Ozone/Aerosols (2008)
• Solar Irradiance (2006)

• Funded
• Under study/ early formulation
• Contained within NASA budget projections/undergoin
  g preliminary study

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Science Questions Addressed By Exploratory
Missions
Variability
Forcing
Response
Consequence
Prediction
Precipitation, evaporation cycling of water
changing? Aquarius
Atmospheric constituents solar radiation on
climate? Calypso, OCO
Clouds surface hydrological processes on
climate? Cloudsat
Weather variation related to climate variation?
Weather forecasting improvement?
Global ocean circulation varying?
Changes in land cover land use?
Consequences in land cover land use?
Transient climate variations? Aquarius
Ecosystem responses affects on global carbon
cycle? OCO
Surface transformation?
Changes in global ocean circulation? Aquarius
Coastal region change?
Trends in long-term climate? OCO, Aquarius
Global ecosystems changing?
Stratospheric ozone changing?
Stratospheric trace constituent responses?
Future atmospheric chemical impacts?
Ice cover mass changing?
Sea level affected by climate change?
Future concentrations of carbon dioxide and
methane? OCO
Motions of Earth interior processes? GRACE
Pollution effects?
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Transition from Research to Operations
In operation
Imaging and Sounding
Under Development
Under Study or Formulation
Solar Irradiance, Ozone, and Aerosols
NPOESS
ACRIMsat
SORCE
SIGF
NPOESS
SAGE III
AURA
Observation
Ocean Surface Topography
Jason
OSTM
NPOESS/partners
Land Cover/Land Use Change
Commercial (USGS)
Landsat 7
LDCM
Technology
Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation
NCEP
Modeling
Short-term Prediction Research and Transition
Center
NWS
NASA NOAA jointly funding NRC studies on
improving transition
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Data Management and Distribution
Ingesting, processing, and archiving an
unprecedented volume of climate and Earth science
data. NASA is benchmarking capabilities and
processes for handling the capacities for future
operational needs (e.g., NPOESS).
NASA provides access to Earth system science
data, information, and services to millions of
unique users. Over the next decade, NASA will
ensure the timely delivery of Earth Science
information at an affordable cost by evolving to
a more open, distributed set of data systems and
service providers.
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Data and Information Are Provided by a
Cooperative Network of Data Centers and Service
Providers
Data centers process and archive the ESE
satellite data, and provide open access to these
national assets. Science partners improve
accuracy of long-term systematic parameters and
support key science research initiatives. Applica
tions partners provide resource management and
policy decision support in applications of
national importance, and address education needs.
NASAs Earth science data flows through a
value chain, from the raw satellite data
through increasing levels of synthesis
data are calibrated validated for geo-products,
analyzed and derived into information
for specialized research and applications,
and synthesized into
knowledge needed for understanding,
science-driven policy, and national
applications.
DATA
Value
KNOWLEDGE
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Managing the End-to-End Information Flow
Predictions
Access to Knowledge
Information Synthesis
Advanced Sensors
Data Processing Analysis
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Multiple Remote Sensing Approaches
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Development of Enabling Technologies

• Development Projects
• Instrument Incubator
• Adv Tech Initiative
• Adv Info Sys Tech
• Computational Technologies
• New Millennium Program
• Suborbital and Space Validation

Planning

• Products
• Instruments
• Critical components
• Measurement Techniques
• Information Systems
• System elements
• Modeling Infrastructure
• Platform Capabilities

• Capability/Needs Assessment
• Development and Infusion Planning

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Technology Infusion

• In four years have funded over 150 technology
  development projects - all science driven.
• Instrument Incubator Program(IIP) - 9 of the
  first 27 have had aircraft flights of which 4
  have participated in field campaigns
• Precipitation Radar 2 , DC-8 (CAMEX Aug-Sep 2001)
• High-Altitude MMIC Sounding Radiometer, ER-2
  (CAMEX Aug-Sep 2001)
• GPS-Based Oceanographic and Atmospheric Low-Earth
  Orbiting Sensor, Cessna (October 1998, January
  2001)
• PANTHER, ER-2 (May 2002)
• 6 ESSP-3 (Exploratory) Proposals based on IIP
  Instruments
• Delay Doppler Phase Radar Altimeter
• Low Mass, Low Power Radar
• Ultra Stable Microwave Radiometer
• Gas and Aerosol Monitoring Sensorcraft
• Integrated UV-IR Spectrograph and Imager
• Wide Field Imaging Spectrometer

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Computing Modeling at ESE From Observations to
Predictions

• Full power of satellite data is achieved when
  they are integrated with computational modeling
  capabilities
• Model initialization - for weather and climate
  forecasts
• Model evaluation - for all classes of models
• Data assimilation - preparation of accurate,
  global, geophysically consistent data sets for
  research and applications uses

• The challenge facing ESE is to integrate massive
  amounts of data with computationally demanding
  scientific models and to be able to produce
  products for research and decision support
• NASA efforts emphasize this integration, and
  take advantage of the availability of large-scale
  computing facilities within NASA, and agency
  capabilities in computer architecture and
  software engineering

High-end computing and modeling are the key to
transforming data into useful information for
decision makers.
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Modeling Computing Research

• Climate forcing, multi-decade, centennial
  assessment
• Ocean and Land Assimilation, Ocean-land-atmospheri
  c interactions 6 24 months
• Atmosphere, land-surface assimilation,
  assimilated data for mission support, observation
  impact, link between weather and climate
• PI-driven model development selected projects
  through numerous programs
• Engineering Component
• Software engineering/Data assimilation
  methodologies/Computational technologies

NASA Seasonal Interannual Prediction Project
Data Assimilation Office
Computational Technologies
The NASA Short-term Prediction Research
Transition Center
ESMF
Goddard Institute for Space Studies
NASA/NOAA Joint Center for Satellite Data
Assimilation
Earth Science Modeling Framework
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A Vision of the Future Enabling Earth System
Prediction
TODAY
Goals for 2010
3-Day forecast at 93 7 Day forecast at 62 3
day rainfall forecast not achievable Hurricane
landfall /-400Km at 2-3 days Air quality day by
day 6-12 month seasonal prediction experimental
achieved an understanding of El Nino
mechanics Decadal climate prediction with coarse
models and significant uncertainties in forcing
and response factors Demonstrate
centimeter-level measurement of land
deformation Accurate characterization of
long-term tectonic motions, but no short-term
earthquake forecast capability Accurate
characterization of volcanic activity, but no
long-term prediction accuracy
5-Day forecast at gt90 7-10 Day forecast at
75 3 day rainfall forecast routine Hurricane
landfall /-100Km at 2-3 days Air quality
forecast at 2 days 6-12 month seasonal
prediction routine12-24 months experimental 10
year climate forecasts experimental moderate to
high confidence in forcing response
factors Continuous monitoring of surface
deformation in vulnerable regions with millimeter
accuracy Improved temporal dimension of
earthquake volcanic eruption forecasts Improve
post-eruption hazard assessment
Weather
Climate
Natural Hazards
Accuracy refers to sea level pressure forecasts
over Northern Hemisphere during winter.
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r5
How is Global Sea Level Affected by Climate
Change?
Regional sea level rise prediction
capability
IPCC Report
IPCC Report
Airborne ice surveys
NASA Sea Level Assessment

Validated crustal, ice
and ocean models for analysis of global and
regional sea level
ICESat Follow-on GRACE Follow-on
NASA
Joint
Integrated ocean observing system for analysis of
subsurface heat, salt, and wind effects to
understand sea level
Unfunded
Sea Surface Salinity Mission
GODAE CLIVAR
Ocean Vector Winds Mission
Estimates of glacier and ice sheet discharge into
ocean improved capabilities for modeling ice
mass changes
US SAR Mission
Synthesis of Gravity, land-ice elevation, and
ocean elevation data for relative sea level rise
contributions
Knowledge Base
Observationally enhanced model improvements of
Earth/Ice/Ocean/Climate interactions
Global Ocean Data Assimilation Experiment
Observations of ice mass changes, gravity and
ocean topography enable identification of their
relative contribution to of sea-level rise
ICESat
Ongoing model improvements
GRACE Jason
FY04 Performance Outcome High resolution ice
elevation maps for modeling Integrated
Topex/Jason sea-level time-series First-order
sea ice thickness assessments
Continued tide gauges, buoys,
and meteorological observations
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Earth Science National Applications
Carbon Management
Aviation Safety
Energy Forecasting
Public Health
Water Management
Disaster Preparedness
Coastal Management
Homeland Security
Agricultural Competitiveness
Air Quality
Community Growth
Invasive Species
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Enrich Earth Science Education for the Nation
Improve public awareness, appreciation and
understanding of Earth system science and
encourage pursuit of careers in science and
technology using NASA-unique content and resources

• Provide the Nation with life-long learning
  opportunities about climate change research
• Partner with Youth Groups, Parks, and Museums to
  bring science to life through hands-on,
  stimulating educational experiences
• Science technology stories provide the
  foundation for museums, broadcasters, filmmakers,
  rangers, web providers, etc.
• Partner with educators to build human capacity to
  create effective decision support tools
• Identify encourage creation of quality
  curriculum
• Sponsor professional development for educators
• Sponsor graduate students and recent PhDs

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Inspiring the Next Generation of Explorers

• Using the Earth System Science concept and our
  view from space to change the way Earth science
  is taught
• Influencing each stage of the education pipeline
• Teacher-reviewed curriculum support materials for
  K-12 11,438 teachers trained in 344 workshops
  thus far
• Earth System Science Education curricula for
  colleges universities implemented at 44 thus
  far
• Sponsoring 150 graduate student fellowships
  directly, with 50 selected each year
• Sponsoring 40 early career and education grants
• Working with 25 museums to integrate NASA Earth
  science results into their evolving exhibits
• Partnering with the National Park Service, the
  Girl Scouts, Earth Sky Radio, and others to
  increase public literacy in Earth science

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Research Announcement Selections
340 investigations have been competitively
selected for support since January 2001.
State, Local, Tribal 5
Commercial 10
Other Federal 11
Universities 53
NASA 21
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Agenda

• Opening Remarks M. Cleave
• Program Overview J. Kaye
• Earth Science Applications R. Birk
• Science Research and Products for CCRI
• Carbon, Ecosystem, Land Cover/Use Sciences
  D. Wickland
• Water Cycle J. Entin
• Climate Variability W. Abdalati
• Atmospheric Composition P. DeCola
• Computational Earth System Modeling R. Rood
• Summary J. Kaye

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Summary

• NASA brings an integrated global perspective
• NASA has the end-to-end capability to go from
  research to decision support
• NASA has the organizational capacity to carry out
  complex programs

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Contributions in CCRI/USGCRP
NASA is positioned to implement the goals of CCRI
with our agency partners