Title: Climate Change and Indian Agriculture: Current Focus and Future Priorities
1- Climate Change and Indian Agriculture Current
Focus and Future Priorities
P.K. Aggarwal Indian Agricultural Research
Institute New Delhi, India
2Climate and Indian Agriculture
- Indian agriculture is considerably dependant on
changes in weather - Contribution of agriculture to GDP is decreasing,
yet large population dependent on this for
livelihoods - Need to understand the impacts of increasing
climatic risks and possible adaptations
3Approach Experiments modelling
- Models of food production
4InfoCrop A User-friendly Crop Modelling System
- Model responds to change in
- Environment Radiation, temperature, CO2,
rainfall, wind speed, vapor pressure, flooding,
frost - Soil
- Variety
- Agronomic Management
- Pests population
- Has been validated for rice, wheat, maize,
sorghum, cotton, potato, groundnut, soybean,
mustard in different agro-climatic regions
5Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change on
Wheat Yields in North India
6Simulated Impact of Global Climate Change
Scenarios on Wheat Yields in North India
2080
2050
2020
7Impact of Climate Change on Food Supply
8Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
Demand
Supply
9Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
10Impact of Climate Change on Food Production
11Agro-Ecological Regions
12Validation of InfoCrop for wheat producing states
Another validation with the parent model-WTGROWS-
using FACE experiment at USA- showed good
agreement with field observations
13Regional climate change scenarios
- PRECIS A2 scenario
- Daily values for 2070-2099 period
14Total number of frost days at Delhi for observed
and baseline scenario
15Total number of rainy days at Delhi for observed
and baseline scenario
16Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
pessimistic technology scenario HaDCM3-2020
17Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
pessimistic technology scenario
HaDCM3 scenarios
18Impact of climate change on wheat yields in a
paradise technology scenario
HaDCM3 scenarios
19Declining Response of Wheat to Improved
Management in Global Warming Scenarios
20Relation of Recent Weather Trends with Yields of
Paddy and Wheat
Decline in yield is apparently also related to
decrease in radiation and increase in minimum
temperature
21Evidences in Recent Past Estimated impact of
heat wave in March 2004 on wheat production
- Increased heat 5-8 oC in north and central
India from 5th March to 28th March, 2004 - Caused a loss of 4.5 million tons of wheat
22Estimated impact of heat wave in March 2004 on
wheat production
23Adaptation in agriculture is a continuous process
- Agriculture diversity is a manifestation of
climatic adaptation - Farmers/society have always adapted when allowed
by technology availability, their socio-economic
capacity, and economics. - Induced adaptation by innovation
- Green revolution of 1960s
- Resource conservation technologies such as zero
tillage - GMOs
24Traditional adaptations/coping strategies to
climatic stress practiced by farmers
- Drought proofing by mixed cropping
- Low yielding, tolerant crops
- Resource conservation
- Single cropping
- Frost management by irrigation
- Heat stress alleviation by frequent irrigation
- Shelter belts
25Adaptation options to climatic change autonomous
- Changing varieties/crops
- altering fertiliser rates to maintain grain or
fruit quality and be more suited to the
prevailing climate, - altering amounts and timing of irrigation
- harvest water
- conserve soil moisture (e.g. crop residue
retention) - use water more effectively
- altering the timing or location of cropping
activities - diversifying income including livestock raising
26Scope of autonomous adaptations in wheat in north
India in different scenarios
27Constraints in autonomous adaptations
- Availability at desired time
- Fields for desired activity
- Extension services for management of adapted
variety, if different - Seeds of adapted varieties
- Irrigation water, fertilizer and machinery
- Costs of adaptation- unknown
28Adaptation options to climatic change Planned
- Investments in adaptation research capacity
- Improved communication of climate changes and
options to adapt to them - Investments in infrastructure for water
management and for product transportation and
marketing - Changes in policies and institutions, e.g.
incentives for resource conservation and use
efficiency - Credit for transition to adaptation technologies
- Relocation to more productive areas
- Creating alternate livelihood options and
reducing dependence on agriculture - Greater insurance coverage for the farm
29Conclusions
30Future priorities Complex future agriculture
scenario
- Increasing demands for food
- Reducing/stagnating crop yields fatigue of
intensive agriculture and climate change - Reducing availability of natural resources for
agriculture - Need for increased resources land, water,
fertilizers, capital - Need to preserve environment
- Greater environmental impact of agriculture
31Agriculture in an Uncertain Future Need for
Integrated Action
- Assess vulnerability of agriculture to global
climate change in a changing global scenario
(demands, markets, technologies, natural
resources) - Develop research infrastructure for assessment of
direct impacts- FACE, FATE - Develop models for integrated assessment
- Need to link sectoral research- scenarios of
climate change- water resources agriculture and
other sectors- policy -feedbacks - Identify research/technology/policy options for
short-term - Focus on no-regrets options
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35Indian National Network Impacts, Adaptation
and Vulnerability of Indian Agriculture to
Climatic ChangeInvolves 16 research
institutes, gt60 scientists
36Specific Information Needs
- Impact on food (crops, milk, fish) demand and
supply- spatial and temporal differences - Impact on nutrition cereals, legumes, oil crops
- Impact on commercial crops (quality and
quantity)- spices, tea, coffee, medicinal plants - Impact on trade internal and external
- Impact on natural resources- soil, water and air
- Impact on farmers livelihood
- Options to enhance adaptive capacity - farmer
level, regional differences, government level - Potential of agricultural land as carbon sink
- Policy implications link with current
development plans
37Information Needs on Vulnerability of
Agricultural Sector
- Can we remain self-sufficient in food despite
global climatic changes, urbanization and trade
liberalization? - Which regions and the social groups are more
vulnerable to climatic change? - How will enhanced climatic risks affect
livelihoods of resource-poor farmers- hill,
coastal, tribals? - How should different farmers adapt to cope with
climate change ? (in the background of changing
scenario of demand and markets)
38Mitigation of Climatic Change/ Feedbacks on
Environment Information Needs
- Can alternate land use systems such as
plantations and agroforestry increase carbon
sequestration and yet meet food demand? - How much area can be taken out from agriculture
for forestry where and what policy measures
would be needed? - How much carbon is conserved by limited tillage
options? For how long ? - What is the potential of biofuels for carbon
mitigation what policies and technologies would
ensure their adoption by farming community?
39Need for research infrastructure