Professor of Geology, University of Adelaide Emeritus Professor of Earth Sciences, University of Mel

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Professor of Geology, University of
AdelaideEmeritus Professor of Earth Sciences,
University of Melbourne
HSEC Innovation in ResourcesAdelaide, 15th
October 2009
Greenhouse Dilemmas
Ian Plimer
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Constant cyclical climate change
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Climate change over time
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Is the speed and degree of modern climate change
unprecedented?
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Cold snaps and ice
Ice Accumulation (metres/year)
0
5
10
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Age thousands of years ago
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Cooling with increasing CO2
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The next climate change The future is
written in the past
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Temperature

• Location, location, location..

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Urban heat island effect
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What is really measured?
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Temperature Trend per Decade 1940 - 1996 (C)
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
-0.1
Population of Country
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Reliability of surface measurements
The 28 years of high quality satellite data
Global
Northern Hemisphere
Temperature Variation (C)
Southern Hemisphere
The Southern Hemisphere is the same temperature
it was 28 years ago, The Northern Hemisphere has
warmed slightly
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Models for atmospheric temperature
Zonally-averaged distributions of predicted
temperature change in K at CO2 doubling
(2xCO2-control), as a function of latitude and
pressure level, for four general-circulation
models (Lee et al., 2007)
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Radiosonde measurements
No greenhouse warming signature is observed in
reality
hPa
Km
Source HadAT2 radiosonde observations, from CCSP
(2006), p116, fig. 5.7E
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Temperature, sunspots and CO2
Year
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Temperature proxy

• Cosmogenic isotopes (C14 also Be10, Al26, Cl36,
  Ca41, Ti44, I129)

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Sea level change
1992-95 Global average rise 4.6 mm/yr
1992-98 Global average rise 1-4-3.1 mm/yr
TOPEX/Poseidon measurements, September 1992
August 1995 (patterns dominated by international
ocean variability, e.g. ENSO)
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Well all be rooned
Measurement of historic sea levels
Port Pirie
-0.3mm/yr
2.4mm/yr
Port Adelaide Outer Harbour
Fort Denison
1.0mm/yr
Sea Level (mm)
1.4mm/yr
Fremantle
Southern Oscillation Index
Global average of tide gauges for 20th Century
sea level rise is 1-2mm/yr (IPCC, 2001)
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Smoothing of ice core CO2 data- why
pre-industrial choice of 280ppm?
1812-2004 Northern Hemisphere, Chemical
Measurement
CO2 (ppmv)
Year
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Water Main greenhouse gas
driver of CO2
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Doubling CO2 at 385ppmhas no effect
The warming effect of atmospheric carbon dioxide
Temperature (C)
Atmospheric carbon dioxide in ppm
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Submarine volcanicity

• Terrestrial volcanoes change weather (e.g.
  Tambora 1815)
• Submarine supervolcanoes add heat and CO2
  to oceans and change climate (64,000km ridges
• 10,000 km3/a of cooling water
• gt85 Earths volcanoes)

Megaplume 2
Megaplume 1
Seafloor Spreading
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Greenland ice sheet
5.4cm/yr increase
Greenland ice sheet change in cm/yr
Year
Time Years Before Present
Derived from 11 years of ERS-1/ERS-2 satellite
altimeter data, 1992-2003
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Is global warming melting the ice caps and
reducing sea ice? NO!
Antarctic Sea Ice Trends
. going up!
Source National Snow and Ice data Centre
Year
Antarctic Land Ice Trends
. going up over most of the continent!
Source Vaughn, D.G., 2005. Science, 3008,
1877-1878.
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Its easy to stop climate change - All we have
to do is

• STOP bacteria doing what bacteria do
• STOP ocean currents changing
• STOP plate tectonics and continent movement
• STOP orbital changes to Earth
• STOP variations in energy released from Sun
• STOP orbit of Solar System in Galaxy
• STOP supernoval eruptions

When weve stopped these natural processes, if
human-induced then PERSUADE China and India to
stay poor
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Alternative energies

• Base load power (coal, hydro, nuclear fission U
  and Th)
• Peak load power (gas, hydro)
• Remote power (diesel, wind, solar)
• Ideological power (wind, wave, solar, tidal,
  biological)
• Possible new sources (hot dry rock, nuclear
  fusion)
• Attitudinal myths (awareness resources
  consumption of 182 tonnes per person per annum 7
  t coal equivalent)

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and Australias electricity

• Coal - cheapest, gt200 years, established
  infrastructure, clean, expansion
• Hydro - cheap, driest habitated continent,
  established infrastructure, no expansion
• Gas (natural and coal bed) - cheap, lower
  reserves, unreliable WA supply and possible
  expansion on SE Australia grid
• Nuclear (ALP/Greens NEVER Conservatives support
  community 50 support)
• Australia net exporter of energy (gt200Mt coal,
  yellowcake, refined Al, Zn, Pb and Cu)
• Australias economy dependent upon large volumes
  of cheap energy

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US house cooling costs (July 2007)

• Electricity used 1900 kWh (US169)
• Comparative costs
• Natural gas 6200 ft3 27
• Oil 48 gal. 46
• Coal 500 lb 28
• Wood 1400 lb 21
• Uranium 0.25 lb 13
• GREEN POWER
• Wind 40,000
• (10 kW machine, 22ft blade, 100 ft tower on 1
  acre)
• Solar 120,000
• (733 ft2 of 9 kW panels)
• Coal and oil have high energy density (e.g. 30g
  coal can pull 1t coal 1.5km 30g oil can pull 1t
  coal 5km)

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Carbon pollution reduction scheme

• Replacement of efficient job creating energy with
  unreliable expensive energy (cf Waxman
  cap-and-trade bill in USA)
• Refusal to consider nuclear base load energy
• Tax on energy, bureaucratic control of CO2 which
  underpins all industry, energy and food
  production, opportunity for unregulated opaque
  money transfer
• CO2 plant food the more CO2 and the warmer the
  climate, the more food (cf Medieval Warming)
• Threaten employment in rural and smoke stack
  communities, lose competitive trade advantages,
  increase costs for everything, decrease in
  standard of living

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Senator Wongs 3 unanswered questions from
Senator Fielding

• 1 Is it the case that CO2 increased by 5
  since 1998 whilst global temperature cooled over
  the same period?
• If so, why did the temperature not increase
• and how can human emissions be to blame for
  dangerous levels of warming?

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Senator Wongs 3 unanswered questions from
Senator Fielding

• 2 Is it the case that the rate and magnitude
  between 1979 and 1998 (the late 20th Century
  phase of warming) was not unusual in either rate
  or magnitude as compared with warmings that have
  occurred earlier in the Earths history?
• If the warming was not unusual, why is it
  perceived to have been caused by human CO2
  emissions and, in any event, why is warming a
  problem if the Earth has experienced similar
  warmings in the past?

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Senator Wongs 3 unanswered questions from
Senator Fielding

• 3 Is it the case that all GCM computer models
  projected a steady increase in temperature for
  the period 1990-2008, whereas in fact there were
  only 8 years of warming followed by 10 years of
  stasis and cooling?
• If so, why is it assumed that the long-term
  climate projections by the same models are
  suitable as a basis for public policy making?

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Senator Wongs 3 unanswered questions from
Senator Fielding

• On 3rd July 2009, a Due Diligence Paper was
  released by Senator Fielding that shows
• a. The Minister and her Department have
  largely been unable to answer the questions that
  they were asked.
• b. The Australian Department of Climate Change
  has little capacity to assess the science of
  global warming in an expert knowledgeable and
  independent way
• YET
• Australias CPRS legislation still has had
  neither scientific nor financial due diligence
  and yet is the biggest financial decision that
  Australia has ever made

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A few little problems

• Warmings in industrial age (1860-1880, 1910-1940,
  1975-1998 CO2 rise only correlates with
  1975-1998 warming)
• Industrial age coolings when CO2 increasing
  (1880-1910, 1940-1975, 1998-present)
• Peak of Little Ice Age coolings (Dalton, Maunder,
  Spörer, Wolf) when few sunspots 20th Century
  solar maximum and no sunspots
• Pre-industrial Minoan, Roman and Medieval
  Warmings (with no sea level changes)
• Greater past variability and changes
• Five of six great ice ages when atmospheric CO2
  up to 1000 times higher than now
• Arctic warming (fanfare)
• Antarctic, oceanic (PDO) and atmospheric cooling
  (silence)

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The dilemma

• Governments (and oppositions) wedded to
  controlling global climate (new taxation base,
  greater centralised control)
• Can not credibly retreat from spin, hype and
  dogma
• Contrary validated science (now starting to see
  the light of day
• Community attitudes changing, governments (and
  oppositions) follow but dont lead
• Meanwhile, Rome burns during a global economic
  crisis in the absence of a long term energy,
  food, water and disaster policy