Marc Beurskens

1
Fusion in the future energy mix

• Marc Beurskens
• FOM institute for plasma physics "Rijnhuizen"
• 3430 BE Nieuwegein, PO Box 1207
• The Netherlands
• Marc.Beurskens_at_rijnh.nl

2
Questionnaire on energy in 2100
3
Fusions contribution in 2100?
50 of global energy use
4
Fusions contribution in 2100?
10 of global energy use
5
Fusions contribution in 2100?
1 of global energy use
6
Fusions contribution in 2100?
none
7
Which of these will have a contribution of more
than 10 in 2100?
Wind
Solar PV
Biomass
Fission
8
Which of these will be the cheapest in 2100?
Wind
Solar PV
Biomass
Fusion
Fission
9
Energy issues one hears about

• Oil will run out
• Security of supply
• The climate is going to change
• Energy poverty

10
How much oil is left?
11
BP says 40 years

7000

Oil production (Mt/year)
3500

0

0

40

Years from now
12

7000

Oil production (Mt/year)
3500

0

0

30


Years from now
13

7000

Oil production (Mt/year)
3500

0

0




Years from now
14
Where is the oil?
Miljard vaten
(source BP statistical review 2002)
15
Resources limited?
16
Not if we accept to use coal
17
Fossil fuels

• Run out but probably only on the long run
• Induce security of supply problems

18
Any other issues?
19
Climate change
20
CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas
21
CO2 concentration

• Was 280 ppm
• Is 360 ppm
• Will be?

22
How much CO2 are we going to emit this century?
23
CO2 emission scenarios
Source IPCC SRES emission scenarios
24
CO2 is Prime Greenhouse gas
25
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26
So we need to get rid of fossil fuels because

• They run out on the long run
• They contribute to political instability
• And most importantly they contribute to global
  warming

27
Can we make a prediction for the future energy
consumption?
28
CO2 emission scenarios
Source IPCC SRES emission scenarios
29
World energy consumption
IIASA B-scenario
1600
South
1400
North
1200
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
600
400
200
0
Year
30
What does the current mix look like?
Source IEA
31
Which part may remain fossil?
1600
1400
1200
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
600
400
200
0
Year
Source VN, IPCC
32
Target European Commission

• 50 emission reduction in 2050
• Now assume that the rest of the world would also
  do this

33
The entire world has 50 carbon free energy in
2050
1600
1400
1200
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
600
400
200
0
Year
34
What are the options for 2050?

• Energy saving
• Solar
• Wind
• Biomass
• Hydro
• Nuclear fission
• Carbon sequestration

35
Fossil fuels
Cost Dirt cheap (3 cts/kWh)
Application All
Scale Small-Big
Operation Extremely variable
Public acceptance Good/sexy
Potential 100 (now 80)
Environment Bad
Political tension yes
36
Nuclear Energy
Cost Cheap (5-10cts/kWh)
Application Electricity
Scale Big
Operation Continuous
Public acceptance Very Bad
Potential Large
Environment Good/Bad
Political tension yes
37
Hydro Energy
Cost Low
Application Electricity
Scale Small-large
Operation variable
Public acceptance Boring
Potential Limited 10
Environment Good (?)
Political tension no
38
Energy saving
Cost Cheap-Expensive
Application All
Scale Small-Big
Operation -
Public acceptance Boring
Potential 15 (now 0)
Environment good
Political tension no
39
Solar Energy
Cost Very high (100cts/kWh)
Application Electricity
Scale Small-Big
Operation Intermittent
Public acceptance sexy
Potential 5-10 (now 0.01)
Environment good
Political tension no
40
Example To cover 5 of current energy in Europe

• We need to install 600 times the current world
  capacity of solar PV
• This would cover the Netherlands

41
Wind Energy
Cost Cheap (5-10cts/kWh)
Application Electricity
Scale Takes much space
Operation Intermittent
Public acceptance sexy
Potential 5-10 (now 0.1)
Environment good
Political tension no
42
Contribution to electricity of wind energy in 2003
43

• Currently 2 of electricity in Europe
• 24 GW of wind
• 20 of electricity in Europe means
• 240 GW of wind

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Which means 1500 big wind parks
Horns Rev in Denmark 160 MW (80 mills of 2MWp)
45
Biomass Energy
Cost Medium (10-50cts/kWh)
Application All
Scale Huge
Operation Variable
Public acceptance bad
Potential 5-10 (now 1-2)
Environment good
Political tension no
46
Example To cover 5 of current energy in Europe

• We need to cover France with energy crops

47
CO2 storage
Additional cost 5-20 cts/kWh
Application All
Scale Large
Operation Variable
Public acceptance bad
Potential Large
Environment Good? (not proven)
Political tension no
48
Hydrogen economy

• To make hydrogen from electrolyses is too
  expensive (factor 2-3)
• Fuel cells are too expensive (factor 10)
• Hydrogen is essential as energy storage for
  intermittent sources

49
There is no single alternative energy source that
can replace the role of fossil fuels
50
In total

• All the renewable sources would add up to about
  50 if all works perfectly
• Nuclear fission and carbon sequestration could
  fill in the gaps.

51
Surely we are investing a lot?
52
Industry RD investment
70
RD investment/Added Value
60
Can energy industry invest more in RD?
50
40

30
20
10
0
Tobacco
Oil gas
Electricity
IT hardware
Pharma biotech
Telecommunications
Automobiles parts
Electronic electrical
53
Industry all investment
70
RD investment/Added Value
60
Capital invest/Added Value
50
40

30
20
10
0
Tobacco
Oil gas
Electricity
IT hardware
Pharma biotech
Telecommunications
Automobiles parts
Electronic electrical
54
What does the government do?
Government RD
Raw oil price
6000
80
5000
70
4000
60
3000
50
Government RD in US
2000
40
Oil price 2001
1000
30
0
20
10
0
1970
1980
1990
2000
Year

55
Action required

• We need all available energy sources
• Invest in implementation of nearly competitive
  sources
• Invest in RD for not yet competitive and newer
  sources

56
What after 2050?
57
80-90 of energy should be carbon free in 2100
1600
1400
1200
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
600
400
200
0
Year
58
It could be better, it could be worse
Source IPCC SRES emission scenarios
59
Is there anything else we can hope for?
60
Fusion
61
Nuclear fusion
Cost ?
Application Electricity
Scale Large 1GWe
Operation ?
Public acceptance ?
Potential ?
Environment ?
Political tension no
62
Cost
63
Fusion plant cost division
64
Does it become cheaper?
Cost example
2030 Cost of fusion electricity 16ct/kWh
Investment cost million Euros
2100 Cost of fusion electricity 7-9 ct/kWh
65
Operation
66
Load following

• Fusion is high investment/low running cost
• But load following with about 50 power variation
  is possible

67
Potential
68
Fusion fast track?
69
How fast can we grow?

• 1 reactor in 2035
• 1 commercial reactor in 2050
• 10 commercial reactors in 2060
• Growth no higher than 10-15 per year
• 250-2500 reactors in 2100.
• This is 4-35 of global electricity in 2100
• So lt 10 of total energy in 2100.

70
Public acceptance
71
Public opinion Eurobarometer
72
Public opinion informed students
73
Environment
74
Environment

• No Greenhouse gasses
• No other chemical pollutants
• Radioactive waste?

75
Anti-ITER site in Canada
76
Bulk radioactive waste OK
77
Tritium

• If 10 g of tritium is released to the
  atmosphere, no evacuation of the direct
  environment outside the site is required
• Question
• What if all of the 1.5kg are released?

78
Nuclear fusion
Cost 7-16cts
Application Electricity
Scale Large 1GWe
Operation Continuous/variable
Public acceptance Be very careful
Potential lt5 in 2100
Environment Good, but
Political tension no
79
If all the money given to fusion would go to
renewables this would solve the worlds energy
problems
80
EU-15 Energy support

• Totaal 18 Billion Euro/year
• Subsidies15 Billion Euro
• 7.5 Billion fossil
• 3.5 Billion Renewables
• 3.5 Billion energy saving
• 0.5 Billion Nuclear fission
• RD Private 1 Billion Euro
• RD Public 2 Billion Euro

Source Delft-CE
81
Which part may remain fossil?
1600
1400
1200
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
600
400
200
0
Year
Source VN, IPCC
82
Plan for the future
Now-2030 Efficiency improvement Wind and biomass Coal ? Gas Solar PV RD Energy storage RD Nuclear fusion RD CO2 sequestration RD Generation IV fission RD
83
Plan for the future
2030-2050 CO2 sequestration Energy storage Wind en biomass Solar competitive? Fusion works? Continue energy RD!
84
Plan for the future
2050-2100 In this era we need all the options we can get Energy storage works well So many renewable options Solar PV is competitive Fusion works
85
Fusion and the energy mix

• No single new energy source can replace fossil
  fuels.
• Therefore an extensive energy mix is required
• To achieve this large RD and implementation
  budgets are required
• Fusion could play a significant role at the end
  of the century, but does not offer a single
  solution.

86
The energy mantra should be

• We need to invest in all new options for energy
  production.
• We should not fight each other, but join forces
  towards policy makers.

Fusion comes late, but will arrive exactly at the
time when the need is the highest
87
Thank you for your attention
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89
Welk aandeel mag fossiel blijven?
1600
A2
IIASA
1400
A1
1200
B2
1000
Energy consumption (EJ)
800
B1
600
400
200
0
Year
90
Is energy equally distributed on earth?

• A Chinaman uses 10 times less energy than an
  American.
• At the end of this century this will still be
  only a third

91
Equal energy distribution?
No!
IIASA/WEC 1998 business as usual scenario
1.2
1.0
0.8
Relative energy consumption
per person
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
2000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
2000 2050 2100
North
Western
India and
Afrika
America
Europe
China
92
Resource limitations or climate change?
Conventional Conventional (upper) Unconventional
93
It will produce only 20-40 of its maximum
capacity
94
Can Solar PV get Cheaper?
Maybe
95
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