The COOL project Introduction

1
The COOL project Introduction Outcomes

• Willemijn Tuinstra
• Wageningen University, The Netherlands
• IHDP Open Science Meeting Rio de Janeiro 2001

2
COOL Facts

• Part of the Dutch National Research Programme on
  Global Air Pollution and Climate Change
• January 1999-July 2001
• Joint effort by an interdisciplinary team of
  several institutions Institute for Environmental
  Studies, VU Amsterdam National Institute of
  Public health and the Environment (RIVM),
  Wageningen University, Utrecht University,
  Ecofys, Netherlands Energy Foundation and others.
  

3
COOL Goals

• Supporting the development of long-term climate
  policy in the Netherlands in a European and
  Global context.
• Aspects
• -Stakeholder participation --Sectordialogues
• -From "Future Visions" to strategic Sector Plans,
  making use of Backcasting

4
Main Features of COOL

• Long term (2050) and radical reductions (-80)
• - Climate policy strategy needs long term vision
• - Far reaching reductions are needed (structural
  change)
• - Long term visions have short term implications
• User driven dialogue setting
• Back-casting approach
• Three levels National, European, Global

5
Three Dialogues

• National Dialogue
• - 4 sector groupsBuildings, Energy/Industry,
  Transport, Food production
• European Dialogue
• - 2 sector groups Energy/Industry, Transport
• Global Dialogue
• - 1 group Negotiators NGO's involved in the
  UNFCCC process

6
Back-casting vs forecasting

• Problem in need of solution
• Broad scope for human choice
• Analyse conditions for futures to materialise
• Broad array of methods
• Stimulates creativity

• Dominant trends likely futures
• Narrow focus on changing trends
• Sensitivity analysis for dominant variables
• Strongly mathematical model oriented
• Risk of extrapolating trends

7
Back-casting in COOL

• Constructing visions of long-term future (e.g.
  low GHG future or climate targets)
• Construction of pathways to establish the vision
• Future history writing (how do we get to vision)
• Mile stones/accomplishments that have to be made
• Identifying barriers and opportunities
• Designing of strategies (e.g. for emission
  reduction)
• How to deal with barriers and how to make use of
  opportunities
• Formulating conditions
• Evaluating options and short-term actions

8
National Dialogue

• Sector group participants from private sector,
  environmental organisations, trade unions, local
  govt and national govt independent chair
• Each sector group met ca. 6 times
• Starting point were 2 alternative Low GHG
  Visions for 2050, developed by the scientific
  support team
• Back-casting develop strategic plans identifying
  feasible options and conditions to be fulfilled
• Products
• Sector plans
• Recommendations for Dutch Climate Policy Strategy

9
European dialogue

• Participants from private sector, environmental
  groups, European Commission, national governments
• Two sector groups met 4 times during 4 workshops
• Starting point were Low GHG Visions for 2050
• Linking long term EU sector strategies to long
  term EU Climate Policy
• Back-casting approach
• Products feasible options for long term policy
  and conditions that are to be fulfilled

10
Global dialogue

• 4 meetings with one group participants involved
  in UNFCCC process from governments, environmental
  groups, industry
• Long-term issues related to ultimate objective of
  Climate Convention (stabilisation of GHG
  concentrations)
• Back-casting evaluate short and medium term
  implications (Kyoto second commitment period)
• Products
• feasible approaches to consensus building on long
  term issues
• (computer) tools to facilitate decision making

11
Conclusions NL

• 80 technological feasible
• doubts about feasibility without causing or
  increasing other societal problems
• societal, political, institutional and
  psychological barriers
• major technological breakthroughs are needed

12
Conclusions Europe

• 80 reduction is technically feasible in 50 years
• Major bottlenecks institutions, prices,
  behavioral changes, enlarging the EU
• Initial efforts have started in oil companies,
  car manufacturers, electricity producers
• EU need a long term vision
• Mechanisms for leap-frogging of accession
  countries needed

13
Conclusions Global

• Conditions for change
• A broad public awareness of the climate change
  problem and a belief that there are feasible,
  acceptable and affordable solutions.
• Clear and effective global and national climate
  policies, providing incentives to companies and
  consumers giving a price to carbon emissions,
  both national and international.
• Developed countries will have to show the way, by
  developing and implementing new technologies
  (e.g. fuel cell car, PV) and adjustment of
  lifestyles.
• Wide scale and effective transfer / diffusion of
  modern technological knowledge to developing
  countries and integration of climate policies
  into sustainable development.
• Some support to fossil fuel dependent developing
  countries to restructure their economies, develop
  new energy resources and technologies and to
  soften the regional consequences of reduced
  fossil fuel production.

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More information

• Http//www.wau.nl/cool

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Teamwork

• Bridging the gap between science and policy
  together! Thats COOL!