A WORLD OF CHANGE A CONSTANT WORLD

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A WORLD OF CHANGE A CONSTANT WORLD

• COMMUNITY FOUNDATIONS SYMPOSIUM ON A GLOBAL
  MOVEMENT
• Berlin, Germany, Dec. 2-4,2004

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Outline

• Introduction Thinking About the Future
• Existing Trends
• Alternative Futures
• Vision, Mission, Goals, Strategies
• Where We Come In The Role of CFs
• Summary and Conclusion A Constant World

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Constantly Changing World

• We live in a constantly changing world due to
  scientific progress and technological innovation
• Future is uncertain and unpredictable
• Final outcome depends on battle between two
  opposing forces
• Those that threaten peoples lives
• Those that improve them

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Constantly Changing World

• Why think about the future of the world?
• To better shape what will happen
• To apply what we learn to our own community
• The Power of One

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State of the Present

• Progress in human development during the 20th
  century was dramatic and unprecedented.
• 2004 Human Development Report

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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News
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State of the Present Good News

• Child Mortality more than halved (1960-2000)
• Adult Illiteracy almost halved (1975-2000)
• Secondary school enrollment rose by more than 40
  (1982-2002)
• Population growth slowed down from 80.5 million a
  year in 1982 to 73.9 million in 2002.

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State of the Present Good News

• International cooperation to reduce threats of
  new and reemerging diseases and immune
  microorganisms (e.g. SARS)
• Women
• Increasing number of women with formal education
  or participation in the cash economy.
• This has contributed to the improvement in
  improved general welfare better nutrition
  conditions, lower infant mortality, lower birth
  rates

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State of the Present Good News

• Political front
• Fewer major armed conflicts from 31 in 1982 to
  25 in 2002
• Vast majority of world living in peace
• Greater dialogue and formal and informal regional
  groupings adding to stability
• Number of democracies growing, number of
  dictatorships decreasing
• Incidence of violent crime has gone down

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State of the Present Good News

• Science and Technology front
• Greater efficiency
• It takes 33 less energy to produce a unit of
  output in industrial economies than it did 30
  years ago
• Revolution in information and communication
  technology
• 13 of humanity connecting to the internet, and
  digital divide between North and the South
  narrowing from 40-to-1 in 1996 to 4-to-1 last
  year

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State of the Present Bad News

• Overall progress not equally shared by all the
  6.4 billion people who populate the 194
  countries/areas around the world.

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State of the Present Bad News

• 54 countries are poorer now (lower real per
  capita income) than in 1990
• Of these, 20 are from SSA, 17 from E. Europe and
  CIS, 6 from Latin America and the Caribbean, 6
  from East Asia and the Pacific, and 5 from the
  Arab States
• Income poverty rates increased in 37 of 67
  countries with data
• At the beginning of this century, 1.1 billion
  people were living on less than 1 PPP US a day

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State of the Present Bad News
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State of the Present Bad News
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State of the Present Bad News
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State of the Present Bad News

• In 19 countries more than 1 person in 4 is going
  hungry and the situation is failing to improve or
  getting worse.
• In 21 countries the hunger rate has increased
  831 million people are undernourished.
• In 14 countries, under-5 mortality rate increased
  in the 1990s.
• In 7 countries, almost one in four children will
  not see their fifth birthday 11 million
  children under age 5 are dying each year.

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State of the Present Bad News

• In 9 countries more than 1 person in 4 does not
  have access to safe water 1.2 billion people
  have no access to safe water
• In 15 countries more than 1 person in 5 does not
  have access to adequate sanitation 2.7 billion
  people have no access to adequate sanitation.
• In the 2 cases above, the situation is failing to
  improve or getting worse.
• Water tables are falling on every continent,
  agricultural land is becoming brackish,
  groundwater aquifers are being polluted.

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State of the Present Bad News

• More than 30 new and highly infectious diseases
  have been identified in the last 20
  years(including AIDS, SARS, Ebola, avian flu) and
  for many there is as yet no treatment cure, or
  vaccine
• Annual AIDS deaths rose to 3.10 million in 2002
  from zero in 1982 in SSA alone over 7 million
  are infected

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State of the Present Bad News

• Some 104 million primary age children are not in
  school, 60 of them are girls
• Developing country debt in 2002 was 74 more than
  it was 20 years earlier

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State of the Present Bad News

• Women
• Violence against women between 15-44 years of age
  causes more death and disability than cancer,
  malaria, traffic accidents, and even war
• Estimates are that 1 out of every 3 women has
  been physically assaulted by an intimate male
  partner at some point in her life

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State of the Present Bad News

• Political front
• Some 1.8 billion people live in countries where
  political regimes do not fully accommodate
  democratic, political and civil freedoms
• Between 1990 and 2001 there were 57 major armed
  conflicts in 45 locations
• These have killed as many as 3.6 million people
  and injured many millions more more than 90 of
  whom are civilians, with children accounting for
  at least half of the casualties.

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State of the Present Bad News

• Political front
• About 900 million people belong to ethnic,
  religious, racial or linguistic groups that
  face discrimination

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State of the Present Bad News

• Environment front
• Atmospheric CO2 has increased for another record
  year mean monthly CO2 in the atmosphere has
  grown by almost 10 from 337.9 to 367.5 ppm 3 of
  the last 5 years were the warmest in recorded
  history
• Forestlands have diminished, from 4.1 billion
  hectares in 1982 to 3.9 billion in 2002

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State of the Present Bad News

• Terrorism and crime
• No. of people killed in terrorist attacks almost
  quintupled between 1982 (739) and 2002 (3361)
• Civilization is more vulnerable to cyber
  terrorism, information pollution (e.g.,
  misinformation, pornography, junk email, media
  violence) and virus attacks cyber weapons can
  now be considered weapons of mass destruction.

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State of the Present Bad News

• Terrorism and crime
• Transnational organized crime has grown to the
  point (2 trillion a year) that it is
  increasingly interfering with the ability of
  governments to act

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State of the Present Bad News

• Important Note
• Just as progress is unevenly distributed at the
  international level, the same phenomena can be
  observed at regional, national, subnational and
  community levels

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State of the Present Bad News

• Even in developed countries
• In the US official poverty rate in 2002 was
  12.1, up from 11.7 per cent in 2001 (34.6
  million v. 32.9 million)
• The number of Americans living in severe poverty
  with incomes below half of the poverty line was
  14.1 million, with 3.9 million Americans
  suffering from food insecurity and hunger

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State of the Present Bad News

• Even in developed countries
• In the UK, just under 1 in 4 people (nearly 13
  million) live in poverty
• In Germany, once the new package of welfare
  reform law goes into effect in January 2005, it
  is estimated that the no. of poor people will
  increase from 2.8 to 4.5 million people.

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State of the Present Bad News

• In the Philippines
• Some provinces exhibit similar human development
  as developed countries, while others would be at
  the same level as countries in Sub Saharan Africa
• Average life expectancy in Philippine provinces
  ranges from 53 years to 71 years
• Infant mortality rates range from 41.8 to 80.4
• Cohort survival rates in elementary range from
  22 to 81

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Alternative Futures

• Future depends on which will dominate
• Forces which threaten peoples lives
• vs
• Forces which provide opportunities for their
  improvement

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Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios

• Without sufficient nutrition, shelter, water, and
  sanitation, there will be increased disease,
  migrations, conflict
• e.g. roughly 40 of the worlds population live
  in 260 major international water basins shared by
  more than two countries already a potential
  source of conflict

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Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios

• 98 of the growth of the worlds population up to
  2050 is expected to be in the poorest countries
• Within the next two decades, hundreds of millions
  more could be added to the 1.1 billion people
  living on less than USPPP1 a day
• 285 minority groups could be in conflicts due to
  different forms of injustice

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Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios

• Advances in science and technology increase the
  possibility that single individuals acting alone
  can create and use weapons of mass destruction
• e.g. hospitals, food storage, water supply and
  other support systems increasingly depend on
  computerization and the internet, and are thus
  vulnerable to cyber terrorism.
• Global warming, continuing unabated, may lead to
  a greenhouse effect growing beyond human control

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Alternative Futures Gloom Scenarios

• AIDS could reach global catastrophic proportions,
  as by 2012 the number of people dying early of
  AIDS could double or triple
• by 2025, China, India, and Russia, even in a
  moderate scenario, would see almost 200 million
  people infected
• Transnational organized crime may be able to buy
  the technology to create new forms of crime to
  generate even more profits and control
  governments

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Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios

• State of the Future 2003 reports
• The synergies and confluence of nanotechnology,
  biotechnology, information technology and
  cognitive science (NBIC) will create tools that
  will dramatically increase individual and group
  performance and the support systems of
  civilization
• NBIC products will range from biometrics to
  counterterrorism systems, from restoring brain
  functioning and eyesight to increased longevity,
  not to mention increases in agricultural
  productivity

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Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios

• More sophisticated biomedical devices and imaging
  methods could lead to more accurate diagnosis and
  treatment of cancer, heart disease, Parkinsons,
  Alzheimer's, schizophrenia, etc.
• Growing a new lung or a new heart may be
  possible, as will be a pharmacy-on-a-chip that
  time releases medicine

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Alternative Futures Boom Scenarios

• Natural capital will be replaced by made capital,
  technological change will continue to result in
  improvements in collective human-machine capital
  and reduce dependence on raw materials thus
  ensuring sustainable development

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Alternative Futures

• State of the Future Index (SOFI)
• a statistical combination of key indicators and
  forecasts designed to show the direction and
  intensity of future change as well as to identify
  the factors responsible

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RESHAPING THE FUTURE

• CASE STUDY UN MILLENIUM DECLARATION, MILLENIUM
  DEVELOPMENT GOALS (MDG), MILLENIUM DEVELOPMENT
  COMPACT

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RESHAPING THE FUTURE VISION

• Vision is guided by Fundamental Values
• Freedom
• Equality
• Solidarity
• Tolerance
• Respect for Nature
• Shared Responsibility

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Vision

• What is envisioned is a world at peace, secure,
  and disarmed
• What is envisioned is a world free from want
• What is envisioned is a world where the common
  environment is protected rather than irredeemably
  spoilt by human activities
• What is envisioned is a world characterized by
  democracy, upholding the rule of law and human
  rights

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RESHAPING FUTURE MISSION

• Millenium Development Goals (MDGs)
• 8 goals, together with a set of 18 specific,
  time-bound targets (with exceptions), as well as
  48 indicators that would provide measures of
  performance
• Goals range from halving extreme poverty to
  halting the spread of HIV/AIDS to universal
  completion of primary grades
• Interrelated improvement in one improves
  prospects for the others, and vice versa.

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RESHAPING FUTURESTRATEGIES

• Key Elements
• 1. Not a one-size-fits all, but tailored to fit
  needs of the country, owned by stakeholders
• 2. Prioritize the poorest, most neglected top
  priority, high priority
• 3. Burden sharing and accountability among the
  stakeholders

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WHAT DO THESE ALL MEAN FOR CFs?

• There is a need for CFs everywhere rich or poor
  countries, North v. South
• Knowledge is power familiarity with situation,
  stakeholders, possibilities make for greater
  effectiveness, success
• Knowledge not just book-learning includes
  combined inputs and experience of stakeholders
  (e.g. sharing of best practices)
• Strategies must be OWNED

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The Role of Community Foundations

• Many choices education, health, women, debt,
  democracy, environment, youth (the warm/soft
  heart)
• Choice depends on both specific needs of the
  community and financial and human resources of
  the CF (the cool/hard head)

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The Role of CFs

• Not limited to design of strategies and provision
  of philanthropic services
• Must include participation in larger arena,e.g.,
  serve as watchdogs to ensure the fulfillment of
  local, national and international commitments
• Networking with other CFs makes each one a
  stakeholder in the others activities and
  contributes to their success

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Summary and Conclusion

• The world is constantly changing
• Progress around the world has been uneven
• There is an infinite number of futures,
  ranging from the most pessimistic to the most
  optimistic
• Getting the future we prefer involves vision,
  mission, goals, targets and strategies cool
  heads in the service of warm hearts

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Summary and Conclusion

• Everything depends on us. That is the constant,
  unchanging, truth we are in charge
• In the end, the future is shaped by the people,
  by us by our commitment or our indifference, by
  our despair or by our confidence

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All We Really Need To Know We Learned in
Kindergarten

• SHARE EVERYTHING
• PLAY FAIR
• DONT HIT PEOPLE
• PUT THINGS BACK WHERE YOU FOUND THEM
• CLEAN UP YOUR OWN MESS
• DONT TAKE THINGS THAT ARENT YOURS

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ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN

• SAY YOURE SORRY WHEN YOU HURT SOMEBODY
• WASH YOUR HANDS BEFORE YOU EAT
• FLUSH
• WARM COOKIES AND COLD MILK ARE GOOD FOR YOU

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ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN

• LIVE A BALANCED LIFE LEARN SOME AND THINK SOME
  AND DRAW AND PAINT AND SING AND DANCE AND PLAN
  AND WORK EVERY DAY SOME
• TAKE A NAP EVERY AFTERNOON
• WHEN YOU GO OUT INTO THE WORLD, WATCH OUT FOR
  TRAFFIC, HOLD HANDS, AND STICK TOGETHER

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ALL WE REALLY NEED TO KNOW WE LEARNED IN
KINDERGARTEN

• BE AWARE OF WONDER