Numerical Simulation of Hurricanes Wallace Hogsett University of Maryland, Department of Meteorology

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Numerical Simulation of HurricanesWallace
HogsettUniversity of Maryland, Department of
Meteorology

• Overview of Past Results
• Modeling Obstacles
• Future Research Objectives
• Incorporation of GPS Technology

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Why do we care?

• Life
• Property

73,000,000,000 US since 1900
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Past Research Results MM5

• Despite relative lack of data, the general
  structures of tropical cyclones have been
  reproduced well numerically
• Track and Intensity
• Intense eyewall
• Spiral rainbands
• Radius of Maximum Wind

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Liu et al (1997), Yao et al (2004)
Model Simulation at Landfall
Doppler Radar Observation (final scan before
radar was destroyed)
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• How will we be able to remove the discrepancies
  and improve the simulation?
• Allow SST variability
• Increase resolution
• Improve initialization
• GPS Data!

ABOVE Comparison of simulated (CTL) and observed
(OBS) max wind speed and min pressure (Liu et al.
1997) LEFT Constant theta-e surface showing
transport from boundary layer to upper
troposphere via convective towers (Liu et al.
1997)
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Difficulties in Hurricane Modeling

• Coarse ocean data
• Poor-quality satellite measurements
• Bogus initial vortex
• Reanalyses cannot resolve initial vortex
• Inner core processes
• PBL schemes inadequate?
• Multi-scale Interactions
• Intensity/Track determined by different scales
• Computational decisions must be made

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Future Research

• Energy Budgets for Andrew (1992)
• Kinetic, latent, sensible, and conversions among
  energies
• Landfalling Hurricanes using WRF Model
• Additional energy analyses for this decaying
  stage
• Complex land-air interactions
• Analyses of existing PBL schemes to determine
  applicability during landfall
• How will GPS data be utilized to improve such
  studies?

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GPS Incorporation

• Radio Occultations
• Synoptic scale only?
• Ocean Reflections

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References

• Liu, Yubao, Zhang, Da-Lin, Yau, M. K.. 1997 A
  Multiscale Numerical Study of Hurricane Andrew
  (1992). Part I Explicit Simulation and
  Verification. Monthly Weather Review Vol. 125,
  No. 12, pp. 30733093.
• Yau, M. K., Liu, Yubao, Zhang, Da-Lin, Chen,
  Yongsheng. 2004 A Multiscale Numerical Study of
  Hurricane Andrew (1992). Part VI Small-Scale
  Inner-Core Structures and Wind Streaks. Monthly
  Weather Review Vol. 132, No. 6, pp. 14101433.

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Any Questions?