Political Affairs Department

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Political Affairs Department
Elections 2008 The Impact on Credit Unions
Elections 2008 The Impact on Credit Unions
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Political Affairs Department
Richard Gose Senior Vice President, Political
Affairs
Elizabeth Furey Director Grassroots Advocacy
Trey Hawkins Political Director
Naomi Robinson Political Affairs Executive
Assistant
Emi Montances PA Accounting PAC Compliance
Manager
Shane Singh Political Affairs Accounting
Coordinator
Kate Abel Political Programs Manager
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John Magill Senior Vice President for
Legislative Affairs
Becky Rogers Executive Assistant
Legislative Affairs Department
Rosemary Manesis Government Affairs Assistant
Chris Johnson Vice President for State Government
Affairs
Ryan Donovan Vice President for Legislative
Affairs
Nancy deGrandi Manager of State Information and
Research
John Hildreth Senior Legislative Representative
Michele Johnson Director of Federal Legislative
Affairs
Brian Tate Director of State Advocacy
Phil Drager Senior Legislative Representative
Tom Gannon Senior Legislative Representative
Chris Gaginis Senior Legislative Representative
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Political Environment
Political Affairs Department

• Current Senate Make Up 49-R / 49-D / 2-I
  (Caucus w/ Ds)
• Senate Races 34 1 Special TOTAL 35 Races
• Republicans Seats Up 23 / Retirements 5
• Democrat Seats Up 12 / Retirements 0
• Possible 4 to 6 Seat Pick Up by Democrats

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Political Environment
Political Affairs Department

• Current House Make Up R199 / D236
• House Races TOTAL 435
• Republican Open Seats 27 / Retirements 23
• Democratic Open Seats 8 / Retirements 3
• Possible 10 to 15 Seat Pick Up by Democrats

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Political Environment
Political Affairs Department

• Right Track vs Wrong Track 15 - 78
• Economy
• War in Iraq
• Gas Prices
• Bush / Leadership in Washington
• Health Care
• Illegal Immigration

Republican vs Democrats
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Presidential Election
Political Affairs Department
2004 Presidential Election Map
2008 Swing States
GOP ME 1/2 MI MN NH NJ OR PA WI
Dems CO FL IA MO NC NM NV OH VA
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Post Election Environment
Legislative Affairs Department

• Working Majority in House 218
• Democrats 1992 Majority 258
• Republican 1994 Majority 233 (12 year high)
• Republican Majority falling to 223 by 2006
• Current Democrat Majority 236
• Possible Democrat Majority 2008 251
• (15 seat pick up)

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Post Election Environment
Legislative Affairs Department

• Cloture Proof Majority in Senate 61
• Possible Democrat Majority 2008 54
• (Plus 2 Independents)

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Legislative Affairs Department
Post Election Environment

• Latest Polling Shows (Gallop Poll)
• Obama (D) 46
• McCain (R) 44

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Credit Unions vs. Banks
Political Affairs Department
Grassroots Strength

• More than 2 million people work for banks
• 225,000 full-time CU employees
• 35,000 part-time CU employees
• 90 Million CU members

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Political Affairs Department
Credit Unions vs. Banks
Ballot Test by Demographics
National Voter Survey 2008
Q19
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Letters on Credit Union Behalf
Political Affairs Department
Credit Unions vs. Banks
42
If your CU/ bank asked you to send a letter to
your Congressman about a bill in Congress, would
you be likely or unlikely to send the letter?
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National Voter Survey 2008
Q58, Q59
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Credit Unions vs. Banks
Political Affairs Department
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Credit Unions vs. Banks
Political Affairs Department
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Legislative Affairs Department
Legislative Environment

• Internal Influences
• Democrats
• Blue dogs
• New Democrat Coalition
• GOP
• Republican Study Committee
• Main Street Partnership

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Possible Benefits for CUs
Legislative Affairs Department

• CURIA and other credit union regulatory relief
  measures may stand a better chance with expanded
  Democratic majorities
• Less scrutiny of real or perceived abuses in the
  not-for-profit sector
• Treasurys regulatory blueprint likely dead for
  at least four years.
• Broad FHA and GSE reform likely to pass

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Possible Challenges for CUs
Legislative Affairs Department

• CRA for federally-insured credit unions extremely
  likely.
• Interchange fee regulation likely
• Credit union tax exemption may be eroded if
  PAYGO rules encourage some to tax mega credit
  unions as an offset for new spending increases
  or tax cuts.

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Possible Challenges for CUs
Legislative Affairs Department

• Well-intentioned consumer protection legislation
  may adversely affect credit unions
• Broad mortgage bankruptcy reform
• Possible repeal of the Bankruptcy Reform Act of
  2005
• Increased disclosure and compliance burdens to
  prevent real and perceived abuses in the mortgage
  lending market.

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Possible Challenges for CUs
Legislative Affairs Department

• - Initiatives to close the tax gap will likely
  result in increased reporting and compliance
  costs for financial institutions
• - New credit card and overdraft regulations
  likely

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In Summary
Legislative Affairs Department

• The elections, regardless of their outcome, will
  produce new opportunities as well as challenges.
• Most credit union issues tend to be nonpartisan.