Global Climate Change and Missouri Birds

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Global Climate Changeand Missouri Birds

• Global picture
• U.S. Climate Change Science Program
• Adaptation and Resilience
• Changes in Distribution and Abundance
• Species Vulnerability Trait Analysis
• Dealing with uncertainty and GCC
• What to do locally?

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Biologically Complex
Shorebirds
Landbirds
Ecology Physiology Genetic Diversity
Waterbirds
Waterfowl
Adaptive Capacity Resilience
Resident Game Birds
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Global Circulation Models

• Predict that climate change will affect different
  areas of the world to different degrees
• Species Susceptibility - Based on their life
  history, ecology, behavior, physiology and
  genetic makeup bird species likely will respond
  differently.

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World CriticalTarget Areas

• Boreal Forest 15 of land surface
• Carbon sink, nesting and raising of young
• Mangroves and coastal areas
• Subject to Hurricanes, high water levels, that
  are becoming more extreme
• Oceans 71 of the surface of the earth, worlds
  largest habitat, warming will disrupt animal and
  plant equilibrium and affect food sources for
  birds.
• El Sahel in Africa resting and stopover for
  north bound migrant birds.

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U.S. Climate Change Science Program (USCCSP)
Adaptation and Resilience From an Ecosystem
Perspective

• The goal of adaptation is to reduce the risk of
  adverse environmental outcomes through activities
  that increase the resilience of ecological
  systems to climate change.
• Resilience refers to the amount of change or
  disturbance that a system can absorb without
  undergoing a fundamental shift to a different set
  of processes and structures.

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Adaptive Strategy Components

• Protect Key Ecosystem Features- structure,
  organisms and other keystones of the overall
  system.
• Reducing anthropogenic stress - pollution,
  fragmentation
• Representation and replication - protect variant
  forms of a species or ecosystem
• Relocation - human-facilitated movement of
  organisms around barriers

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Dealing with Uncertainty

• How rapidly will vegetation change?
• How will population dynamics respond to habitat
  changes?
• What other surprises will occur?
• How will other stresses (habitat conversion,
  pollution, invasive species, etc.) complicate the
  changes?

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General Implications Things We Can Measure

• Changes in habitat
• Shift in distribution, quantity, and quality
• Variation in food availability
• Changes in bird ranges
• Ranges may tract habitat shifts
• Timing and migratory routes shift
• Demographic changes by species
• Changes in reproductive success
• Survivorship may be affected

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Whither Missouris birds go?

• SW birds shift toward MO
• Southern birds move into MO
• Summer residents move north
• Waterfowl increase winter population in Missouri
  for a while

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Speculated Changes in Missouri Bird Species
Composition

• Birds lost from Missouri in Summer
• Acadian Flycatcher
• Black-capped Chickadee
• Red-eyed Vireo
• Summer Tanager
• Birds with no change in Missouri
• Horned Lark
• Black-and-white Warbler
• Blue Jay
• Dickcissel
• Species with new range in Summer in Missouri
• Vermilion Flycatcher
• Chihuahuan Raven
• Cactus Wren
• Lesser Goldfinch

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Species Vulnerability Analysis

• Habitats must have the necessities for survival
• Multiple habitats in one area
• Very specific sites
• Migratory birds have three or more types
• How does climate affect each of the habitats.

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From the species perspective
www.pubmedcentral.nih.gov
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Characteristics of Vulnerable Bird Species

• General Vulnerability Traits
• Low reproductive rates
• Small population size
• Multiple life history stages

• Diagnostic Traits
• Specialized habitat/microhabitat requirements
• Narrow environmental tolerances or thresholds
• Dependence on an environmental trigger

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Uncoupling from food resources

• Short-distance migrants 13 days earlier
• Long-distance migrants 4 days earlier
• Wood Warblers no significant tendency
• Strode (2003) These results suggest that climate
  change may force many species of long-distance
  migratory songbirds to become uncoupled in the
  spring from their food resources that are driven
  by temperature.

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Suggestions for Dealing with Climate Change

• Recognize as a factor in wildlife
  conservation
• Manage birds continentally under the tenets of
  NABCI and various bird initiatives
• Support habitat over the entire range of
  migratory bird species.
• Consider a state bird conservation delivery
  partnership

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Suggestions for Dealing with Climate Change

• Manage for diversity
• Maintain healthy, connected habitats
• Consider scenarios in regional
  planning
• Reduce other stressors on habitats
• Consider protecting inland wetlands
• Adjust yield and harvest models
• Monitor species and habitat conditions

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Things to do locally

• Check your local bird checklist on CACHE and
  assess your species list.
• What are individual species habitat requirements?
• What are the tolerances of the species to heat,
  cold, precipitation (rain, snow, etc.)
• What is the size of their breeding range?
• What is the percent of the population in
  Missouri?
• What is Missouris role in the conservation of a
  species?

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The End
THE END
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Information Sources

• IUCN Red List (Birdlife.org)
• Climate Change 2007 Overview for NA Wildlife
  Managers, Virginia Burkett USGS
• Workshop Report Species Vulnerability Traits,
  Berkshire, UK
• The Birdwatchers Guide to Global Warming -
  ABCbirds.org
• Atlas of Climate Change Effects in 150 Bird
  Species of the Eastern United States. GTR NE 318