The Potential for Nuclear Energy in Developing Nations by Neil J' Numark Chairman, Sustainable Energ

1
The Potential for Nuclear Energy in Developing
Nationsby Neil J. NumarkChairman, Sustainable
Energy InstitutePresident, Numark Associates,
Inc.Washington, DC

• Presentation to theInternational Energy
  Conference Exhibition (IECE)
• SUSTAINABILITY ENERGY FOR DEVELOPING NATIONS
• Daegu, Korea
• February 27, 2007

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Outline

• Status of Nuclear Power Today
• Characteristics of Nuclear Power
• Prospects for Tomorrow (with emphasis on
  developing nations)

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Status of Nuclear Power Today

• Review latest data on worldwide utilization of
  nuclear energy

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Worldwide Nuclear Power Plants
Source International Nuclear Safety Center,
Argonne National Laboratory, http//www.insc.anl.g
ov/pwrmaps/map/world_map.php.  
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World Electricity Generating Capacity by Fuel
Type, 2003 - 2030
Source International Energy Outlook, 2006 -
EIA/US DOE
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Total and Nuclear Generating Capacity, by Region
(current and projected)
Source International Atomic Energy Agency
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates
for the Period up to 2030, 2006 Edition
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Electricity Share Supplied by Nuclear Power, by
Region (current projected)
Source International Atomic Energy Agency
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates
for the Period up to 2030, 2006 Edition
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Nuclear Share of Total Electricity Generation in
2005, by Country
Source International Atomic Energy Agency
Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates
for the Period up to 2030, 2006 Edition
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Fuel Shares for Electricity Generation
Source OECD/IEA 2003 "Electricity Information"
2002, Table 4
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Growth in World Nuclear Generating Capacity
Source Nuclear Energy, Hans-Holger Rogner Alan
McDonald, International Atomic Energy Agency,
Ausgabe 1/04, 2004
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Regional Shares of Nuclear Production, 2004
Source Key World Energy Statistics
International Energy Agency, 2006
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Characteristics of Nuclear Power (1)

• High power density, large output
• Environmental benefits clean air, carbon-free.
  Greatest attribute for developing countries.
• Costs
• Capital intensive large units, high cost to
  build, low cost to operate
• Major component of baseload power supply
  (alongside coal)
• Long reactor lifetimes, 40-60 years

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U.S. Cost Comparison (1)
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U.S. Cost Comparison (2)
Source Nuclear Energy Institute
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U.K. Cost Comparison

• PF Pulverized fuel, CFBC Circulating
  fluidized-bed combustion, IGCC Integrated
  gasification combined-cycle, OCGT Open-cycle
  gas turbine, CCGT Combined-cycle gas turbine,
  BFBC Bubbling fluidized-bed combustion
• Includes capital, equipment, fuel, operation and
  maintenance costs
• Source The Cost of Generating Electricity, The
  Royal Academy of Engineering, 2004

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Characteristics of Nuclear Power (2)

• Safety Good safety record but plants require
  continued vigilance also need governments to
  maintain independent, technically competent
  regulatory authorities.
• Proliferation concerns Potential exists to
  exploit peaceful nuclear plants to produce
  weapons material. Even without such intentions,
  a peaceful and safeguarded nuclear program could
  be a concern to neighboring states. But a
  country with nuclear power plants is still very
  far from having weapons capability.
• Nuclear waste Safe disposal is widely considered
  to be technically feasible, but political
  solutions still elusive.
• Security concerns are increasing, over both
  reactors and their materials, raising operating
  costs.

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Prospects for Tomorrow

• 2000-2010 Modest worldwide growth Korea, Japan,
  China, India, Finland
• 2010-2020 Large growth likely China, United
  States, India possibly Russia, Europe
• 2020 Possible further application in other
  developing nations (Indonesia, Vietnam)

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Near-Term Expansion LWRs

• New generation of light water reactor (LWR)
  designs from the major global vendor groups offer
  evolutionary improvements over existing LWRs
• Toshiba-Westinghouse AP-1000 (1100 MW)
• GE-Hitachi ABWR (1300 MW) and ESBWR (1500 MW)
• Areva EPR (1600 MW) Areva-MHI PWR (1000 MW)
• Korean OPR-1000 (950 MW) and APR-1400 (1350 MW)
• Russian AES-2006 (1200 MW)
• Next large waves of new plants likely in China,
  U.S.
• China first plant around 2013 plans for up to
  50 GW in new nuclear capacity
• US first plant around 2015

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Shin Kori Units 3 and 4 2 units, 2700 MWe
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Advanced Gas-Cooled Designs

• Smaller units (120-300 MW) can be installed
  incrementally (shorter construction lead-times
  than large plants smaller impact from reactor
  shutdowns)
• Well suited to either large or small electric
  power grids
• Potential for higher degree of inherent safety
• Potential to produce hydrogen in addition to
  electricity
• Designs include
• Pebble-Bed Modular Reactor (PBMR)
• High-temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Pebble-Bed
  Module (HTR-PM)
• Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR)
• South Africa first PBMR to be built by 2012
• China first HTR-PM module to be built by 2014,
  at Rongcheng in Shandong Province (see photo).
• US Possible PBMR or GT-MHR by 2018

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Planned Rongcheng Pebble-Bed Reactors 19
modules, 3700 MWe
Source Andrew C. Kadak, Nuclear Power Made in
China, The Brown Journal of World Affairs, Brown
University, Fall 2006.
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Issues in Implementing Nuclear Power in
Developing Countries (1)

• Large growth in baseload electricity demand
  coal and nuclear are primary choices.
• Benefit of nuclear reduce reliance on coal in
  China, India and elsewhere.
• Power density an attribute in densely populated
  countries
• Major financing challenges
• Plant siting sufficient distance from large
  population centers
• National electric grid need to add power in
  appropriately sized increments

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Issues in Implementing Nuclear Power in
Developing Countries (2)

• Advanced reactor designs now offer more passive
  safety features
• But plants still require skilled workforce and
  strong safety culture. Track record running
  fossil plants is not good everywhere.
• Governments also need to maintain independent,
  technically competent regulatory authorities
• Concerns about limited global manufacturing
  capacity for heavy forgings, to support
  large-scale nuclear renaissance
• Fuel cycle approach China and India expected to
  utilize closed fuel cycles smaller nations
  likely best served by once-through cycles.

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Generating Capacity Projections for Non-OECD
Countries
Source International Energy Outlook, 2006 -
EIA/US DOE
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Nuclear Generation Projections for Asia
Source International Energy Outlook, 2006
EIA/US DOE
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Issues in Implementing Nuclear Power in
Developing Countries (3)

• Note the diversity of perspectives by
  international organizations
• UN Development Programmes World Energy
  Assessment, 2004 Update Near-term improvements
  in nuclear reactors can be achieved both through
  continued evolution in LWRs and through
  development of new reactor concepts. Already
  available are LWRs with improved safety features
  Another concept, the PBMR, claims to have the
  potential for a high degree of inherent safety
  without the need for complicated and
  capital-intensive safety controls
• World Bank Concerning nuclear energy, the
  Banks position of not working in this area has
  not changed and thus there are no plans for
  increased involvement. 
• Asian Development Bank ADBs rationale for not
  being involved in nuclear power development was
  based on concerns related to the transfer of
  nuclear technology, procurement limitations,
  proliferation risks, and environmental and safety
  aspects.
• International development banks negative

Sources World Energy Assessment Overview 2004
Update, UNDP, UN-DESA and World Energy Council,
2004 Extractive Industries Review (EIR)
Implementation Update, 2006 Spring Meetings,
World Bank Review of the Energy Policy, Asian
Development Bank, 2000
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The Role of Nuclear (1)

• An important element of sustainable, clean energy
  for developing as well as industrialized nations
• Baseload fuel mix should combine nuclear
  advanced clean coal technologies with carbon
  sequestration and renewable energy technologies
• Great benefits in reducing urban air pollution
  and global warming

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The Role of Nuclear (2)

• But need appropriate conditions
• Mature and fiscally sound electric utilities with
  good operating track records
• Ability to ensure safe operations with skilled
  workforce and strong safety culture
• Independent, technically competent
  safety/environmental regulator
• Reactor size suited to grid conditions and
  financing context
• Siting outside of densely populated regions
• Sufficient facilities for interim storage of
  spent fuel careful consideration of alternatives
  for long-term disposition.