Stockpile Transformation Study

1
Office of the Assistant to the Secretary of
Defense Nuclear and Chemical and Biological
Defense Programs
Stockpile Planning for the FutureMr. Steve
HenryDeputy Assistant to the Secretary of
Defense for Nuclear Matters
2
Stockpile PlanningThe Historical Approach

• Largely target based
• Heavy reliance on a large stockpile to manage
  geo-political and technical risk
• Infrastructure with little capability beyond
  maintaining legacy weapons

Legacy stockpile
Infrastructure Cost
This approach continues the Cold War mentality of
strength in numbers, rather than a focus on
overall capabilities
3
Clear Objectives Exist for the Future Nuclear
Weapons Stockpile
I am committed to achieving a credible deterrent
with the lowest-possible number of nuclear
weapons consistent with our national security
needs - Pres. Bush May 2001

• Reliable, secure, and safe stockpile
• Responsive nuclear weapon infrastructure
• Sustain confidence for the long term
• Continue moratorium on nuclear testing

The current approach for the stockpile and
infrastructure does not adequately provide a path
forward that meets the Presidents guidance
A New Approach is Needed to Meet DoDs Future
Stockpile Needs
4
Objectives of a New Approach

• Initiate an immediate change from the current
  path of maintaining complex Cold War-era designs
  indefinitely
• Provide flexibility in the stockpile and ability
  to adapt to changing needs
• Sustain critical skills to design, certify, and
  produce nuclear warheads
• Free-up capacity and resources to enable
  transformation to a responsive, sustainable
  infrastructure

Reliable Replacement Warhead (RRW) Concepts May
Provide a Way to Achieve These Objectives
5
The New Approach and Potential Implementation

• If RRW proves feasible, we should have a way to
  enable a broad change in our nuclear enterprise
• Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons
• Demonstrate our ability to design and certify
  without nuclear testing
• Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear
  infrastructure
• Potential to disassemble a larger number of
  retired weapons

Current Plan
New Approach
Stockpile
Wxx Life Extension (LEP)
Stockpile
Wxx
RRWs
Wxx
Life Extension
6
Our New Approach Must Meet National Security
Objectives

• Supports defense policy goals of
• Assuring allies and friends of US mutual security
  commitments
• Dissuading potential aggressors from
  planning/acquiring WMD
• Deterring potential aggressors from using WMD
• Defending against or defeating an aggressor
• Enables stockpile reductions
• Consistent with U.S. non-proliferation
  initiatives

7
It Must Also Preserve Essential National
Capability

• Sustains and exercises national capability for
  nuclear warhead design, engineering, and
  production skills
• Fosters scientific and technical capabilities to
  reduce technical surprise
• Enables an infrastructure that is responsive to
  changing national security needs
• Facilitates nuclear incident/emergency response
  capabilities

8
Managing Risk Today vs. 2030
Today
2030

• Legacy infrastructure with limited capability
• Heavy reliance on hedge stockpile for risk
  management

• Responsive and efficient infrastructure with
  enhanced capability
• Reduced reliance on hedge stockpile for risk
  management

We need a more balanced approach between
stockpile size and infrastructure responsiveness
9
Nuclear Weapons Stockpile Transformation
TODAY (2005)
2010
2020
2030
LONG TERM VISION

• DoD Weapons
• Weapon systems designed and fielded during Cold
  War
• Warheads (8-9 types)
• All Cold War-era legacy warheads
• Plan to refurbish indefinitely
• Infrastructure
• Make components to refurbish warheads
• Some components expensive, difficult to
  manufacture
• Risk Management
• High reliance on back-up warheads

• Warheads
• All non-refurbished legacy warheads retired
• 2-4 types of RRWs
• Responsive Infrastructure
• Streamlined
• Steady-state production of warheads for
  deployment
• Risk Management
• Low reliance on non-deployed back-up warheads
• High reliance on responsive infrastructure

TRANSFORM Target Based To Enterprise Based
Deterrent
10
Nuclear Weapons Stockpile and Infrastructure
Transformation
TODAY (2005)
2010
2020
2030
LONG TERM VISION

• DoD Weapons
• Weapon systems designed and fielded during Cold
  War
• Warheads (8-9 types)
• All Cold War-era legacy warheads
• Plan to refurbish indefinitely
• Infrastructure
• Make components to refurbish warheads
• Some components expensive, difficult to
  manufacture
• Risk Management
• High reliance on back-up warheads

• Develop and field RRW warheads
• Develop low-cost warhead back-up options
• Continue life extension refurbishments evaluate
  quantity needed
• Conduct stockpile transformation studies

• Evaluate tradeoffs of an all-RRW stockpile versus
  mixed stockpile
• Re-scope warhead life extension needs
• Develop warheads for next-generation delivery
  systems
• Complete stockpile transformation plans

• Warheads
• All non-refurbished legacy warheads retired
• 2-4 types of RRWs
• Responsive Infrastructure
• Streamlined
• Steady-state production of warheads for
  deployment
• Risk Management
• Low reliance on non-deployed back-up warheads
• High reliance on responsive infrastructure

11
Summary

• The current nuclear enterprise is unsustainable
  in the long term
• If RRW proves feasible, we could have a way to
  enable a broad change in our nuclear enterprise
• Enhance safety, security, and control on weapons
• Demonstrate our confidence to manufacture and
  certify without nuclear testing
• Reduce the size and cost of the nuclear
  infrastructure
• Potential to disassemble a larger number of
  retired weapons
• We need to work with the NNSA and Congress on
  stockpile and infrastructure transformation

RRW Can Enable Transformation of the Stockpile
and Infrastructure