Washington Climate Challenge

1
Washington Climate Challenge

• Climate Advisory Team
• Meeting 1
• March 30, 2007
• WA Departments of Ecology Community Trade
  Economic Development (CTED)
• Center for Climate Strategies
• Ross Associates

2
Welcome and Introductions

• Departments of Ecology and CTED
• Climate Advisory Team members
• Agency Advisors
• Ross Associates and the Center for Climate
  Strategies

3
Agenda

• Purpose of and Charge to the Climate Advisory
  Team (CAT)
• How to proceed to fulfill the CATs charge
• Review the CAT Step-Wise Approach
• Relationship between the CAT and Technical
  Working Groups
• Current State of Play of Climate Change in
  Washington
• Review of the Draft Washington Emissions
  Inventory Forecast and introduction to the
  Catalog of Climate Emission Reduction Actions
• Next Steps for the CAT and TWGs, including
  Schedule and Logistics for Next CAT Meeting
• Public Comment

4
Purpose Key Outcomes

• Purpose of the CAT
• Develop recommendations for achieving the goals
  laid out in Executive Order 07-02
• Charge to the CAT
• Review and approve state greenhouse gas (GHG)
  inventory and forecast
• Review and assess recent actions taken and
  impacts on goals
• Identify actions to meet 2020 goals for GHG
  emissions, job creation fuel savings
• Evaluate opportunities for regional collaboration
• Identify state lead-by-example opportunities
• Identify ways to coordinate state and local GHG
  reduction actions
• Inform and involve the public
• Report to ECY/CTED by January 2008

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CAT and Climate Change Challenge

• ECY CTED oversee and coordinate process
• CAT makes recommendations to ECY/CTED
• CAT provides guidance to the Technical Working
  Groups (TWGs)
• TWGs assist the CAT
• CCS Ross provide facilitation, technical
  support and analysis
• Public input and review

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Key Principles of the Process

• Transparent
• Inclusive
• Step-wise
• Fact-based
• Strive for consensus

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Transparency

• Policy Design
• Timing, goals, coverage, implementation methods
• Economic analysis
• Data sources
• Quantification methods
• Key assumptions

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Inclusive and Comprehensive

• All GHGs
• All sectors
• All potential implementation mechanisms
• State and multi-state actions
• Short and long term actions

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Step-Wise

• Sequential, incremental
• Participants are asked not to reconsider
  decisions already made in the stepwise process
• Once the CAT reaches a milestone by consensus or
  vote, it moves to the next step
• Sufficient time, information and interaction
  between steps
• CAT stays current with information and decisions

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Fact-based

• Preliminary fact finding
• Inventory and forecast of GHG emissions
• Inventory of state actions, studies
• Joint fact finding and policy development
• Inventory and forecast of emissions
• Priorities for analysis, policy description,
  policy design specifications, implementation
  mechanisms, alternative solutions

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Strive for Consensus

• Votes taken to advance to next steps
• Consensus driven
• Discussion and alternatives to resolve conflicts,
  if any
• Final votes include support at three levels
• Final report will document level of support

13
CAT Charter

• Provide leadership and vision for devising
  solutions that meet the goals of the Executive
  order
• Give consideration to Washingtons unique
  emission portfolio
• Represent a wide range of experience and sectors
• Co-chaired by the Directors of ECY and CTED

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CAT Ground Rules

• Support the process
• No debate on the science of climate change, the
  goals established in Executive Order 07-02, or
  the timeline
• All members have equal footing during
  deliberations and decisions
• Attend meetings and stay current with information
  provided to the group and all group decisions
• No backsliding
• Must be able to vote or take a position at
  meetings
• Make objective contributions

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Questions?
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The Challenge

• The ultimate objective of this Convention ....
  is to achieve, . stabilization of greenhouse gas
  concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that
  would prevent dangerous anthropogenic
  interference with the climate system.
• UNFCCC Article 2 Objective,
• Rio De Janeiro

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Stepwise Planning Process

• Develop inventory and forecast of emissions
• Identify a full range of possible actions
• Identify initial priorities for analysis
• Develop straw proposals
• Quantify GHG reductions and costs/savings
• Evaluate externalities, feasibility issues
• Develop alternatives to address barriers
• Aggregate results
• Iterate to final agreements
• Finalize and report recommendations

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Decision Criteria

• GHG Reduction Potential (MMTCO2e)
• Cost or Cost Saved Per Ton GHG Removed
• Fuel Savings
• Job Creation
• Externalities
• Feasibility Issues

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US States 30 of Top 75 World Emitters
WA 26 among US States, 77 in world
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States Set the Bar

• Goals
• Policies
• Innovation
• Implementation
• Consensus
• Conflict resolution

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State GHG Growth Rates
Data from the Center for Climate Strategies,
2006-2007, and US DOE, 2005
FL 88 US 50
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State Climate Plans
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State Actions Since 2000

• GHG State Emissions Inventories and Forecasts
• 25 recent
• Energy and Climate Policies and Mechanisms
• 300 types undertaken, more underway
• State Climate Action Plans
• 22 complete or underway, more likely
• Statewide GHG targets and timetables
• 13 current, 9 underway
• Reporting systems and or registries
• 30 underway
• Regional actions
• NEG/ECP, WRCAI, RGGI

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State Climate Goals
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AZ Climate Plan Results
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Categories of Action

• Energy efficiency and conservation
• Clean and renewable energy
• Transportation
• Forestry
• Agriculture
• Waste management
• Industrial process improvement

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States Wedges
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Implementation Methods

• Voluntary Agreements
• Technical Assistance
• Financial Incentives
• Targeted Spending
• Codes and Standards
• Market Based Approaches
• Pilots and Demos
• Information and Education
• Research and Development
• Reporting and Disclosure

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Screening of Potential Actions - Agriculture
Sample
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Policy Design Proposals

• CAT identifies about 50 draft potential options
  for further development
• TWGs screen, prioritize, and propose initial
  policy option design (straw proposals)
• Timing
• Goals
• Coverage
• CCS quantifies and presents for review
• CAT revisits list of potential priorities, as
  needed

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Policy Option Template

• Policy description (concept)
• Policy design (goals, timing, coverage)
• Implementation methods
• Related programs and policies
• Estimated GHG savings and costs per MMTCO2e
• Data sources, methods and assumptions
• Key uncertainties
• Additional (non-GHG) benefits and costs, as
  needed
• Feasibility issues, if needed
• Status of group approval
• Level of group support
• Barriers to consensus, if any

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A Portfolio of Policy Options
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CAT Final Report to ECY/CTED

• Executive Summary
• Background, Purpose And Goals
• Description of the Process
• History and Status of State Actions
• WA Emissions Inventory Forecast
• CAT Policy Recommendations Results
• Energy Supply
• Residential, Commercial, Industrial
• Transportation
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Waste Management
• Cross Cutting Issues
• Appendices

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Timing and Milestones
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Questions?
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CAT and TWGs

• CAT
• Review existing and planned state actions
• Identify potential options for design and
  priorities for analysis
• Recommend actions to achieve the EO goals
• Technical Working Groups (TWGs)
• Analysis, review and early ranking of options
• Develop initial straw proposals for design
• Input and review of CAT recommendations and
  reports
• Review state GHG inventory and forecast
• TWG process is fully integrated with the CAT
• TWGs serve in an advisory role to CAT
• CAT membership on the Technical Working Groups

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TWG Areas of Focus

• Transportation
• Vehicle efficiency, alternative fuels demand
  reduction programs, land use
• Residential, Commercial, and Industrial (RCI)
• Energy efficiency conservation, industrial
  process, customer side of the meter
• Energy Supply
• Heat and power generation electrical generation,
  supply, transmission
• Agriculture
• Biofuels, waste reduction, recycling energy
  recovery, solid waste management
• Forestry
• Forest restoration, sustainable forest
  management, wood energy, sequestration

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Questions?
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Break
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State of Play

• Why we need to take action now
• What Weve Already Done
• How Our Actions Tie to Others The Local,
  Regional, and National Connections
• The Role of Preparation and Adaptation

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Why we need to act

• Emissions
• growth
• Population
• growth

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Environmental Challenges

• Rising sea level
• Decline in snow pack
• Milder winters, warmer summers
• Increase in wildfire risk
• Changes in peak river flows

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Economic Challenges

• Costs of fighting fire may increase 50 by 2020 -
  75 million
• Water restrictions/higher water prices in the
  Yakima Basin
• Increased costs for shoreline protection
  seawalls, coast erosion
• Increase municipal water costs

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Opportunities

• Economic growth
• Clean energy leadership
• Avoided damages
• Shape policy
• Form markets
• Political leadership

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Accomplishments to-date

• Required all new fossil fuel power plants to
  reduce greenhouse gas emissions (RCW 80.70)
• Adopted the California Car Standards
• Reduces CO2 emissions in newer cars and light
  trucks by more than 30 and in SUVs by 25
• Adopted renewable fuels standards for
  transportation by requiring 2 of fuel sold is
  biodiesel or ethanol
• Funded the Energy Freedom Loan Program to support
  in-state biofuels production
• Instituted high-performance green building
  standards
• Have one of the most energy-efficient building
  codes in the nation

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Accomplishments cont.

• Retrofitting most polluting diesel school buses
  and local government vehicles
• Passed a renewable and energy efficiency
  initiative - Energy Independence Act
• Implemented electric utility conservation
  programs
• Reduced energy use by state agencies through EO
  05-01
• Adopted appliance efficiency standards

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How the Climate Challenge Ties to other Actions

• 2003 West Coast Governors Global Warming
  Initiative
• 2003/04 Climate Protection Advisory Committee
  Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
• 2005/06 Legislative Session CA Vehicle
  Emissions Standards, Appliance Efficiency
  Standards, Green Buildings, Biofuels Content
• 2007 Western Climate Action Initiative WA, OR,
  
• CA, AZ, NM

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WA Local Government Actions

• Puget Sound Clean Air Agency
• King County
• City of Seattle
• Cities participating in the Climate Change
  Protection Campaign
• Bellingham, Burien, King County, Olympia,
  Seattle, Spokane, Spokane County, Tacoma

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Western Climate Action Initiative

• WA, OR, CA, AZ, NM signed in February 2007
• Three Goals
• Set an overall regional goal within 6 months
• Develop a design for a market-based, multi-sector
  mechanism, such as load-based cap and trade
  program within 18 months
• Participate in a multi-state GHG registry
• Detailed Work Begins in April

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2007 Proposed legislation

• Climate change, SB 6001 (ESSB version)
• Adopt Governors goals and establish electrical
  sector performance mechanisms
• Cleaner energy, HB 1303 (E2SHB version)
• Provisions for further use and production of
  biofuels and ethanol
• Renewable energy, several House and Senate bills
• Anaerobic digestion power, renewable fuel
  standards, solar hot water, sustainable energy
  trust

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Preparation and Adaptation

• We are already seeing signs of climate change
• Change will continue and we need to
• Understand what it means
• Be able to incorporate our best predictions of
  change into our planning and investment decisions
  
• Impacts are less well understood than reduction
  strategies

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Glaciers tell a compelling story
At least 4 glaciers have disappeared entirely
Loss of mass
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South Cascade Glacier
Photos courtesy of Dr. Ed Josberger, USGS Glacier
Group, Tacoma, WA
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Questions?
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Washington GHG Emissions

• Draft Inventory and Reference Case Projections
• Initial analysis by CTED, Ecology and CCS for
  discussion and final revision
• Inventory of historical emissions from 1990 to
  most recent data year (2000-2005, depending on
  sector)
• Projection of emissions to 2020

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Coverage

• Six gases per USEPA and UNFCCC guidelines
• Carbon Dioxide (CO2), Methane (CH4), Nitrous
  Oxide (N2O, Hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs),
  Perfluorocarbons (PFCs), Sulfur Hexafluoride
  (SF6)
• Black Carbon may be considered separately
• All major sources and sinks
• Transportation
• Electricity Generation
• Residential, Commercial, Industrial Fuel Use
• Agriculture
• Forestry
• Industrial Processes and Other Sources

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Inventory Approach

• Based on standard US EPA and UN methodologies,
  guidelines, and tools
• Emphasis on transparency, consistency, and
  significance
• Preference for Washington or regional data, where
  available, e.g. as developed by CTED
• Consumption (load-based) and production-based
  emissions from electricity generation
• Simplified approach used for initial analysis

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Projection Approach

• Reference case assumes no major changes from
  business-as-usual
• Does not include impact of recent policies such
  as
• 2005 Clean Car Act (GHG tailpipe standards)
• Clean Energy Initiative
• Others noted in Executive Order
• Growth assumptions from existing sources
• Northwest Power and Conservation Council
• WA Population Forecast
• Western Regional Air Partnership
• US Energy Information Administration
• US Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Washington US Emissions By Sector, Year 2005
(draft)


Industrial process emissions include emissions
from Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) substitutes
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Gross GHG Emission Intensity, 1990-2005 (draft)
Per Capita
Per GDP/GSP
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Washington Gross GHG Emissions By Sector
(draft)(includes production-basis electricity
emissions, excludes forestry and soil
sequestration)
- similar chart with load-based electricity
emissions under development
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Washington Gross GHG Emissions Growth (draft)
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Forestry (draft)
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Electricity Consumption (load-based) vs.
Production approaches
Source CTED analysis
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Key Points

• CTED, Ecology, and CCS are currently reviewing
  methodology and data gaps
• Draft inventory and projection document expected
  in April
• Will include load-based electricity emissions
• Projected emissions savings from recent actions
  to be estimated separately

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Catalog of States Actions

• Existing, planned and proposed state level
  actions
• Wide variety of US states
• All sectors
• Wide variety of implementation mechanisms
• Includes key WA actions
• CAT will add new potential actions
• Starting place for identification of CAT
  priorities

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Questions?
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Next Steps

• Schedule
• Next meeting topic and logistics

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Schedule and Milestones
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TWG Status

• Lots of Volunteers
• Need to balance size with broad-based interest
• Expect to finalize by April 6
• Interim TWG meeting before next CAT meeting will
  cover
• suggested revisions to the emissions inventory
  and reference case projections,
• early ranking of options in the catalog and straw
  voting for initial priority for analysis
  options and
• development of straw proposals for design
  parameters for selected options

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Next CAT Meeting

• June 5, 2007 in Spokane, WA
• Agenda
• Review and recommend updates to inventory and
  baseline forecast
• Review and revise catalog of potential actions
• Discuss process for identifying initial
  priorities for TWG analysis
• Discuss of process for developing straw policy
  design proposals
• Updates on working groups

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Public Comment
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For more information

• Website www.ecy.wa.gov/climate change