Models for Homeland Security

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Models for Homeland Security With Borrowings from
SPC and Game Theory
James R. Thompson Dept. of Statistics Rice
University
Supported in part by the Army Research Office
(Durham) under DAAD19-19-1-0150.
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Some Useful Texts Herman Kahn On Thermonuclear
War Thinking About the Unthinkable On Escalation
Victor Hanson Carnage and Culture James
Thompson Simulation A Modelers Approach
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Demings Theorem for Acceptance Sampling Under
the Risk Function of Expected Value, the Number
of Sampled Items Should be Zero or the Number in
the Total Sample.
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Let Q be the total expected cost involved in
sampling of a batch of n Let x be the number of
items inspected Let c1 be the cost of examining
an item, Let c2 be the cost of accepting a bad
item Let p be the probability an item is
defective Q c1 x (n-x)p c2 (c1 - p c2 )x
n p c2.
Then it is clear that we minimize Q by If c1
gt pc2, set x0 If c1 ltpc2, set xn.
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Unfortunately, The Cost of Missing A Terrorist Is
So High That Demings Theorem Tells Us To
Subject All Passengers To A Thorough
Inspection. Problem If We Did This, We Would
Bankrupt The US Airline Industry. Reality We
Have To Work With A Constrained
Optimization Problem. Our Task With x and n
Fixed, Find the Allocation of Thorough Samplings
Which Minimizes Q.
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n n1n2 Assume second population more likely
to exhibit "failures" Q c0 x 1 (n1 - x1 ) p1
c c0 x2 (n2 - x2) p2 c Qx 1 (c0 - p1 c )
n1 p1 c x2 (c0 - p2 c ) n2 p2 c .
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Most likely, c0 -p2 c lt0. Consequently, since
we are limited by inspections capacity to inspect
a total of x items, we should follow the
following rule If n2 lt x, sample all persons
from Group 2 and x-n2 persons chosen at random
from Group 1. If n2 gt x, sample x persons from
Group 2. Consider delaying flight until all n2
are sampled.
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Does this mean profiling? Yes. Here is a
profiling strategy. 1.Let the first persons
checked be the least likely (by stereotype) to
be terrorists. Older persons of European origin,
may be selected as frequent victims of the
thorough search. 2. Select all young Islamic
males for thorough checking.
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Perhaps, all this is illegal. It is certainly
profiling. Under the present situation, it
appears unlikely that class action lawsuits would
be filed. There is a certain false symmetry
presented when nuns and rabbis are being
checked, albeit, on the average, much
less frequently than young Muslim males. It has
the effect of being onerous to all groups without
singling out one group and excluding others.
Because the persons of stereotypical inclusion
in the riskier group are in the small minority,
it will almost always be the case that the
middle-aged white businessmen and grandmothers
outnumber young Muslim males as targets of
inspection.
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Even if the proportionality of inspection be
very different among the various groups, as long
as all are significantly at risk of being
checked, it seems that the kind of inspection
currently followed will be tolerable to all, at
least for the foreseeable future.
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We note here an obvious strategy for the
terrorist game master flood flights with large
numbers of persons from Group 2 so that
n2gtx. This can be done for numerous flights over
time without any untoward items being on the
inspected persons. This can disrupt the
inspection system.
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On the other hand, a sophisticated security game
master can then look at putative causes of these
pulse floods of persons from Group 2, e.g.,
travel to conventions, etc., and the identities
of the persons from Group 2 in the floods, and
backtracking their contacts. The commonality of
travel reasons provides a venue for discovering
the activity of the terrorist game master. Even
if the putative travel reasons are such matters
as visiting relatives, going on holiday, the
security game master can seek threads of
commonality amongst the travelers as a venue for
discovering the activity of the terrorist game
master.
13
At the present time, it is unlikely the linkages
between al-Quaida and the mainstream American
Muslim community are sufficient to provide
cascades of suspicious persons to push through
the system. However, continuing disaffection due
to ill treatment of, say, Palestinians, might, if
unchecked, lead to a situation where people who
were unwilling to commit a terrorist act might
nonetheless be willing to participate in
discomfiting the security system. The current
security system of the airlines would be
seriously stressed if the mainstream Islamic
community started to be so offended by US foreign
policy that they, and their friends,
spontaneously participated in a kind of
defacilitation of the security system.
14
Thus, we note another grand strategy possible for
the security game master minimize, by changes
in policy, the fraction of persons in the
general population who are in Group 2. That might
be achieved by foreign policy modifications,
such as establishment of a viable Palestinian
state. Negative reinforcement is also a
possibility. For example, there appears to be
substantial evidence that Wahabi mosques in the
United States are established via funds from the
Saudi state. Since proselytization by nonIslamic
groups is strictly forbidden in Saudi Arabia (as
is public Christian worship), the Saudi
government might be told to cease such Wahabist
support forthwith. It might also be indicated
that the next time an attack organized by Saudi
activists took place on NATO territory,
occupation of Saudi oil properties would
be executed forthwith.
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This is, of course, a political matter, rather
than a statistical one, and the strategies
listed in this paragraph are simply
hypothetical. However, the posing of the problem
in a simple mathematical model at least gives
information to policy makers which they may find
useful. Diminishing n2 and/or p2 by positive
and/or negative reinforcement is clearly
indicated to be a good thing by the model.
Actually, that is the main message of the model
diminish n2 and/or p2.
16
For crews, baggage handlers, etc., 100
inspection by regular random polygraphs and
inspections whenever entering the work site are
clearly in order.
17
Cost saving technology in the transportation of
goods has led to the use of large containers of
standard dimensions which can be loaded and
stacked in ships and easily transferred to
trucks. The size of these containers is
sufficient to accommodate thermonuclear
devices in the multiple-megaton range. Dirty
bombs with thousands of pounds of nonfissionable
nuclear material with a conventional explosive
trigger are easy to contruct and can be
accommodated by such containers. Most of our
major ports are within a few miles of population
centers. Rail and truck logistics plus
offloading considerations do not admit of taking
cargo off in isolated ports. Even were this
possible, the containers might be detonated while
on rail lines or trucks. This kind of Trojan
horse strategy for the terrorist game master
would appear to be too tempting to resist for
long.
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Thinking Outside the Box
War is too important to be left to the generals.
Clemenceau
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Homeland Security Is Too Important To Be Left To
The Policy Wonks.
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President Eisenhower warned of the military
industrial complex.
Now we must worry about the cozy relation between
a host of federal agencies, think tanks, beltway
bandits, academia.
21
Consider the War on AIDS.
22
If one or more federal agencies want to show that
the Gulf War Syndrome is purely delusional,
they may be assured of widespread support within
think tanks, universities, other federal
agencies and professional scientific associations.
23
The pervasive spread of federal
funding throughout American society has
brought the levels of professional objectivity of
scholars and researchers to a level far lower
than anything Eisenhower envisioned. We tend to
spend far too much time admiring the Emperors
new clothes.
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Trofim Denisovitch Lysenko (1898-1976)
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Thinking Outside the Box
Herman Kahn 1922-1983
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1. The Escalation Ladder
2. Scenario Analysis
3. Translation of Military Power into Economic
Power
4. Translation of Economic Power into Military
Power
5. Distributed Decision Nodes
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Some of Kahns Insights
It is easier to teach quantitative scientists
history and political science than it is to teach
historians and political scientists quantitative
reasoning.
Poorly axiomitized models of real
geo-political situations can be attacked by
quantitative scientists.
It is generally better to have some
criterion functions about, rather than simply
trying to muddle through.
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Some Lessons from the Past
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The First 9-11
Battle of Vienna Sept 11 1683
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Jan Sobieski
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Battle of Vienna Sept. 12, 1683
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A Different Kind of War
American Religious Identity Survey of 2001
76.5 Christians 1.3 Jews 0.5 Muslims
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• Terrorist Organizations
• Assassins
• 2. Mahdists
• 3. Core and Periphery Model

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Hasan-i Sabbah
The Adventures of Marco Polo
The Old Man kept at his court such boys of twelve
years old as seemed to him destined to become
courageous men. When the Old Man sent them into
the garden in groups of four, ten or twenty, he
gave them hashish to drink. They slept for three
days, then they were carried sleeping into the
garden where he had them awakened. When these
young men woke, and found themselves in the
garden with all these marvelous things, they
truly believed themselves to be in paradise. And
these damsels were always with them in songs and
great entertainments they received everything
they asked for, so that they would never have
left that garden of their own will. And when the
Old Man wished to kill someone, he would take him
and say Go and do this thing. I do this
because I want to make you return to paradise.
And the assassins go and perform the deed
willingly.
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The Mahdi
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Core and Periphery
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Other Ideas from the Past

• Find centers for retaliation against al-Quaida.
• Consider the possibility of hostage exchanges
• to insure treaties are maintained.

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What New Stuff Can We Bring To The
Table?
Models (lots of them)
Data Based Stressing of Models
Arguments about Models
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1. Simulation Models for Bio-Terrorist Attacks.
2. Models for International Dynamics Between
the Western World and the Islamic World.

3. Models Which Take Account of Opportunistic
Attacks by Powers Which Are Neither Christian
Nor Islamic.
4. Models Which Distinguish Between Various
Terrorist Organization Types.
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5. Models Which Visualize A Functioning
American Society Dealing With Endemic
Terrorism.
6. Models Which Seek To Keep The Endemic From
Becoming An Epidemic.
7. Models To Deal With Contamination of
Municipal Water Supplies.
8. Models To Deal With EMF Attack.
9. Models To Deal With Internet Sabotage.
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Memento Mori
A Model May Be Useful, But It Is Unlikely To Be
Complete.
Organizations Who Are Wedded To Generations Of
Models Built Upon Unproven Concepts Should Not Be
Surprised If They Get Into Trouble.
Modelers Who Avoid Data Should Be
Themselves Avoided.
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When All Your Experts Are In Agreement, You Are
Probably The Victim Of Having Allowed Funding To
Create Orthodoxy
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Let Us Try And Avoid
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Palestine May Be The Key
Yitzhak Rabin 1922-1995
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A Chat With Sharon By WILLIAM SAFIRE Has he
promised to consult Bush before doing anything
drastic? "Consult? We have a regular dialogue.
Israel and America are consulting now as never
before in the past." Sharon notes an unremarked
danger "The Syrians, together with the
Iranians, are playing a double game, escalating
tension on our northern border. Assad's son is
completely under the influence of Hezbollah,
helping them more than his father ever thought
about, integrating the terrorists into Syria's
front-line forces. And the Iranians have
supplied those terrorists with 9,000 to 10,000
rockets, maybe including a new one with a
200-mile range. If war comes, we see what
Syria-Iran-Hezbollah are preparing they'll be
surrogates for Saddam, opening a second front to
help him."
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One Israeli Strategy Which Might Be Employed Is
To Use An Iraq Conflict As An Excuse To Extend
The Conflict To Lebanon and Syria.
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You shall not molest or oppress an alien, for
you were once aliens yourselves in the land of
Egypt. Exodus 2220
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• The Challenges
• Solve the easy well-posed problems (such as
  airline inspection) immediately.
• Begin hard thinking on the harder problems,such
  as container inspection.
• 3. Invite outside the box analysis which produces
  a variety of strategies, rather than one orthodox
  one.
• 4. Avoid an unnecessary Clash of Civilizations.