Air Force Weather Agency Directors Update COPC 012 Nov 2001 Col Bob Allen Commander Approved for Pub

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Air Force Weather AgencyDirectors UpdateCOPC
01-2Nov 2001Col Bob Allen CommanderAppro
ved for Public Release Distribution Unlimited
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Overview

• Homeland Defense Support
• Inter-center Cooperative Initiatives
• NCEP Backup
• NCEP Data Sharing
• NAVAF - METSAT Update
• NAVAF - Geostationary Feature Track Winds
• SPP - AFWA Product Transition Status
• NPOESS Centrals Technical Interchange Meeting
• AFWA Functional Realignments
• Alpha-Numeric (Det 7) Mission Transition Update
• Space Weather Mission Transition Update
• AFWA Initiatives
• Mesoscale Modeling Accomplishments
• Mesoscale Modeling Whats Ahead?

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Homeland Defense Support
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Homeland Defense Support

• Most Homeland Defense support provided by
  standard suite of AFWA and OWS products
• Implemented two 5 km MM5 contingency windows over
  New York City and Washington, D.C. in support of
  operation Noble Eagle
• Available 18Z 11 Sep through 20 Sep
• Standard visualization products (examples follow)
• Specialized METWATCH product for NORAD
• Quick look status for NORAD OPCON airfields
• Activated 12 Sep as ongoing support (example
  follows)

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Homeland Defense Cont.
AFWA MM5 5 km New York City Window
Surface temperature (4F interval)
surface wind barbs
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Homeland Defense Cont.
AFWA MM5 5 km Washington D.C. Window
Surface relative humidity forecast
Surface temperature (4F interval) and surface
wind barbs
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Homeland Defense Cont.
Special Support Operations Branch METWATCH Tool
Click on a location to see the OBS data
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Inter-center Cooperative Initiatives
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NCEP Backup

• Storm Prediction Center
• Successful backup tests 27 Sep 01 and 16 Nov 01
• Aviation Weather Center
• AFWA has sent 7 people to AWC for training and
  familiarization (Fall 01).
• Backup test 28 Nov 01
• N-AWIPS
• Software upgraded to V 5.6.e.1, 14 Nov 01
• MM5 Backup for Eta Model
• Four cycles daily, 45 km, North American and
  Alaskan windows to NCEP
• Successful backup test in Oct 01

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NCEP Backup

• Washington Volcanic Ash Advisory Center
• AFWA assumed W-VAAC text message backup
  responsibility on 17 Jul 01.
• AFWA produced VAFTAD-like graphic ash forecast
• Based on PUFF model output
• Available on JAAWIN
• Initial output sent to NCEP on 9 Nov 01 working
  format issues
• Interim Letter of Agreement in-place formal NCEP
  MOA to be coordinated.

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NCEP Data Sharing

• Land Surface Model (LSM-A)
• Formally requested by NCEP as a model data source
  
• USDA/FAS approved sharing data
• No public distribution of data for 30 days
• Draft MOA awaiting NCEP final coordination

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NCEP Data Sharing

• Space Environment Center
• AFWA and SEC finalized MOU on 26 Jun 01
• Formalizes centralized space environmental data
  exchange and backup relationships

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NAVAF - METSAT Update

• Metrics agreement
• Five minute threshold for single-rev readout
• Ten minute threshold for multiple-rev readout
• 27 Apr 01 - 15 Nov 01
• 99.8 of files delivered
• 97.1 of files delivered by AFWA within
  timeliness threshold (FNMOC hardware outages and
  maintenance caused additional 1.7 late)

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NAVAF - Geostationary Feature Track Winds
Value added in data-sparse regions
Enables more precise specification of tropical
cyclone structure
TC20S (Alistair)
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NAVAF Geostationary Feature Track Winds

• AFWA consuming GOES-8/10 FTW from NESDIS via SPP
• GMS-5, Meteosat-5, Meteosat-7 FTW production
  operational at AFWA
• Assisting Navy/UW effort to add GOES FTW
  capability

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SPP - AFWA Product Transition Status

• Mainframe decommissioning now projected for
  May-Jul 02
• DMSP Mission Sensor Data
• New Raw Sensor Data Record product operational
• Legacy product cutoff ASAP but NLT May 02
• GRIB-format Snow Depth Analysis
• Sample files available 15 Nov will go
  operational pending resolution of any problems
  discovered in sample files
• Legacy product discontinued ASAP but NLT May 02
• GRIB-format Cloud Analysis
• Project still in progress sample files available
  by mid-Dec
• Legacy product discontinued with CDFS II FOC
  May-Jul 02

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NPOESS Centrals TIM

• NPOESS 4-Centrals TIM at AFWA 18 Jul 01
• Result was letter to NPOESS IPO asking for data
  management services to be included within NPOESS
  IDPS
• Our consolidated polar-orbiting use cases matrix
  provides basis for making this common request
• Shows definable/common NPOESS data usage patterns
  
• Favorable consideration by the IPO will
• Avoid unnecessary time delay to stage NPOESS data
  
• Avoid significant Central infrastructure costs

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AFWA Functional Realignments
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AFWA Det 7 Mission Transition

• Converge the Automated Digital Weather Switch
  (Det 7) functionality into AFWA (collect,
  package/ format, disseminate worldwide A/N
  weather data)
• Continue to use WMO standards for data exchange
• Reengineered system will mainly utilize TCP/IP
  based protocol over common-user communication
• Customer/sources who cant migrate to TCP/IP will
  be serviced via LCRS (legacy communications relay
  system)

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Det 7 Mission Transition Schedule

• Dec 01 Complete all software module builds
  for functionality move from Det 7
• Jan 02 Transition of legacy comm circuits to
  LCRS at Offutt - Est 90 complete by 30 Dec
• Feb 02 Complete development test and
  evaluation and integration of all software
• Spring 02 Force Development Evaluation
  (FDE) - transition from Tinker to Offutt complete

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Space Weather Mission Transition

• Strategic Space Weather Observing and Forecasting
  Mission Moves to AFWA Over the Next 6 Months
• Leverages AFWAs production/dissemination system
• Will mainstream space weather products
  services
• Enhances Models and Methods Used Today
• Incorporates new data sources
• Provides multi-level secure processing/production
• Looking to national level programs for partnering

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Space Weather Transition Schedule
Forecaster-in-the-loop Products to AFWA
Automated Products to AFWA
Transfer of SEOC Mission to AFWA
Forecasting System Upgrades
FY02-05
SEON Upgrades (ISOON / SRBL)
Ionospheric Sensor Upgrades (DISS/IMS)
FY01-05
1FY 01
2FY 01
3FY 01
4FY 01
1FY 02
2FY 02
3FY 02
4FY 02
1FY 03
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AFWA Initiatives
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Mesoscale Modeling Accomplishments

• Mesoscale Data Assimilation System (MDAS) for MM5
• Reduced model spin-up improved short-term
  forecasts
• 3-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation
  (3DVAR)
• NCAR development partnership initial testing
  began May 01
• Operational implementation projected for Jul 02
• Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model
• Developed data conversion utilities and output
  interfaces
• Daily real-time forecasts for testing and
  verification
• NCAR Tropical Cyclone Bogusing added to MM5
• Valuable track guidance to JTWC and NHC
• Good feedback from NRL
• GTWAPS Fully Operational Baselined Oct 01

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Current GTWAPS System
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Current GTWAPS Windows
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Mesoscale Modeling Whats Ahead?

• Continued MM5 Optimization
• New MM5 release with OSU polar physics package
• Evaluate physics packages that improve
  forecasts by theater
• Continued WRF Development and Validation
• Choose dynamical core and optimize standard
  initialization (SI)
• Develop, integrate and test nesting capability in
  multiple theaters
• 4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation
  (4DVAR)
• AFRL developing MM5 capability through CHSSI
  funding
• Will leverage for WRF development
• Joint Environmental Modeling System (JEMS)
• Capability to forecast entire battlespace
  environment
• NCAR integrating Unified-LSM into both MM5 and
  WRF
• ETL investigating ocean coupling for WRF