Baseline projections of European air quality up to 2020

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Baseline projections of European air quality up
to 2020
M. Amann, I. Bertok, R. Cabala, J. Cofala, F.
Gyarfas, C. Heyes, Z. Klimont, K. Kupiainen, W.
Winiwarter, W. Schöpp
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Contents

• Driving forces
• Emission projections
• Air pollution impacts
• Uncertainties
• The wider context
• Conclusions

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Driving forces

• CAFE baseline projections
• PRIMES energy projections with further climate
  measures
• CAPRI agricultural projections, pre-CAP reform

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Economic driversassumed for the PRIMES with
climate measures energy projection
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Emissions

• Emission projections developed with the RAINS
  model
• Assuming implementation of present emission
  control legislation
• Ignoring implications of NEC and AQ Daughter
  directives

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Land-based emissions With climate measures
baseline projection, EU-25
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Emissions from sea regions
SO2
NOx
----- EU-15 ----- New Member States
---- Sea regions
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Impacts

• Health impacts of PM
• Health impacts of O3
• Vegetation impacts of O3
• Acidification of forest soils
• Acidification of semi-natural ecosystems
• Acidification of lakes
• Eutrophication of terrestrial ecosystems

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Loss in life expectancy attributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months
Provisional calculations with generic assumptions
on urban increments
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Premature deaths attributable to
ozonecases/year
Provisional calculations with 5050 km grid
average concentrations
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Percent of forest area with acid deposition
above critical loads
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Semi-natural ecosystems (e.g., Natura2000)with
acid deposition above critical loads km2
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Percent of lake catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads
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Percent of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads for eutrophication
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What will be the situation in 2020?

• Remaining air quality impacts
• Major sources of emissions

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Remaining problem areas in 2020Light blue no
risk
Health - PM
Healthvegetation - ozone
Vegetation N dep.
Forests acid dep.
Semi-natural acid dep.
Freshwater acid dep.
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Sources of primary PM2.5 emissions With climate
measures scenario, EU-15
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Sources of NOx emissionsWith climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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Sources of VOC emissionsWith climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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Sources of SO2 emissions With climate measures
scenario, EU-25
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Uncertainties

• Four types of uncertainties highlighted by the
  RAINS review team
• Lack of scientific understanding
• Assumptions, simplifications etc. in the handling
  of data and the design of the RAINS compartment
  models
• Statistical variance in input data, etc.
• Socio-economic and technological development

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(1) Lack in scientific understanding PM Health
impacts
Total PM2.5 emissions Black
carbon
CAFE baseline emission projections for PM EU-15
kt
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(2) Model designSpatial resolution is critical
Urban increment of PM2.5 (year 2000)Provisional
City-Delta results (µg/m3)
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(3) Statistical variance in data Inter-annual
meteorological variability of PM2.5

1999
1997
Grid average concentrations,annual mean
µg/m3 from known anthropog. sources excluding
sec. org. aerosols. Calculations with
emissions for the year 2000

2000
2003


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(4) Uncertainties in socio-economic
developmentRange of the 3 CAFE baseline emission
projections kt
----- EU-15 ---- New Member States
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The wider context

• Long-term trends
• Hemispheric background

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Long-term trends of EU-25 emissionswith climate
measures, relative to year 2000 100
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Increase in background ozoneCurrent
legislation scenario, 2000-2030 ppbv
Emission projections of NOx, CO, CH4 IIASA, TM3
model runs JRC-IES
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Conclusions

• Emissions will further decline
• But Air quality remains threat to human health
• Sustainable conditions for vegetation will not be
  reached
• Relevance of sources will change
• Ship emissions will surpass those from land-based
  EU sources
• Energy projections will influence future
  emissions and emission control costs

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Loss in life expectancyattributable to
anthropogenic PM2.5 months


2000
2020
Loss in average statistical life expectancy due
to identified anthropogenic PM2.5Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies Provisional calculations with
generic assumptions on urban increments
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Health-relevant ozone concentrationsSOMO35,
ppb.days
2000
2020
5050 km grid average concentrations Average of
computations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Vegetation-relevant ozone concentrationsAOT40
ppm.hoursm

2000
2020
Critical level for forests 5 ppm.hours Average
of calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Acid deposition to forests
2000
2020
Percentage of forest area with acid deposition
above critical loads, using ecosystem-specific
deposition, Average of calculations for 1997,
1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Acid deposition to freshwater bodies
2000
2020
Percentage of catchments area with acid
deposition above critical loads, using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies
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Excess of critical loads for eutrophication

2000
2020
Percentage of ecosystems area with nitrogen
deposition above critical loads, using
grid-average deposition. Average of calculations
for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003 meteorologies
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Acid deposition to semi-natural ecosystems
including HABITAT areas

2000
2020
Percentage of area of semi-natural ecosystems
with acid deposition above critical loads, using
ecosystem-specific deposition. Average of
calculations for 1997, 1999, 2000 2003
meteorologies