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LEV INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

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14 years focused on electric bicycle business, world wide. ... Constant traveler to and observer of, Electric Bikes in use as transportation. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: LEV INDUSTRY OVERVIEW


1
LEV INDUSTRY OVERVIEW
  • Ed Benjamin

2
Who is Benjamin?
  • 30 years normal bicycle business, USA
  • 14 years focused on electric bicycle business,
    world wide.
  • Chairman of LEVA, an international group.
  • Co-Author Bi-annual report Electric Bikes World
    Wide Reports, with Dr. Jamerson PhD. Author of
    book on running bike stores.
  • Strong believer in bright future of Ebike
    industry. Speaker at many international trade
    shows.
  • Constant traveler to and observer of, Electric
    Bikes in use as transportation.
  • Owner of consulting company focused on light
    electric vehicles.
  • Former bicycle retailer, former ebike importer,
    VP in 2 ebike companies.

3
Ongoing Market Research
  • We attend major trade shows in US, Europe, Taiwan
    and China every year. We observe the trends,
    identify the major players, talk with successful
    manufacturers and local government and
    associations to provide our customers with
    customized reports.
  • We visit retail stores, hypermarkets and talk
    with local retailers and consumers in different
    countries to learn about their needs and get
    first-hand market information.
  • We visit the factories that make bikes and
    components.
  • We talk with designers, engineers, battery and
    motor professionals to learn the lessons in the
    past and forecast the trend in the future.
  • We communicate with major trade journals
    worldwide on a regular basis to keep updated with
    changes in laws and regulations and market
    trends.
  • We collect and use the data from Associations,
    government, trade groups.

4
LEVA
  • Based in Maine, USA
  • Founded by Ed Benjamin and operated by Sid
    Kuropchak
  • Over 105 members from 17 different countries
  • Six prestigious industry experts serving as board
    members
  • Mission Statement
  • Our purpose is to provide a service to light
    electric vehicle companies by helping to
    establish a favorable operating environment, by
    providing a forum for discussion on
    non-competitive issues, and by providing
    information to assist them in the promotion of
    their business.

5
Light Electric Vehicle LEV Definition
  • Less than 100 Kg (Usually)
  • 2 or 3 wheels
  • Electric motor
  • Variety of Energy Storage methods usually
    battery.
  • Electric Bicycle, Electric Scooter, Electric
    Motor Cycle, Three Wheel Cycle Truck

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7
LEV?????
8
LEV?????
9
LEV?????
10
LEV?????
11
LEV?????
12
Three Wheelers
  • Local transport
  • Short range taxi
  • Handicapped vehicles

13
Post Bikes
  • More and more of world post and parcel will move
    by two wheels and electric power.

14
Light Delivery????
  • Particularly food delivery

15
EU Pedelec
16
Segway???
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18
Electric Scooters
19
Electric Mini Scooters
  • Not just a toy.
  • Valid tool for many indoor and short range out
    door tasks.

20
Streamliners??????
21
Not LEV???????
22
Current Market Status
  • The LEV industry today is something like the car
    industry before 1910. Horseless carriages were
    the idea at that time. No one in 1910 really knew
    what the car would look like in 2010. Or what it
    could do, or that it would be a declining
    industry.
  • Most LEVs today are electric bicycles. Does that
    sound a bit like horseless carriage?
  • World wide, about 22 million LEVs were built in
    2008. Roughly 11 Billion Dollars.

23
Markets Today
  • China will continue to be largest market.
  • India large population, large need, not as
    prosperous as China.
  • EU environmental issues, plus dense
    populations, this will be the highest value
    market for top quality.
  • Japan dense populations, need for folding and
    compact vehicles.
  • USA- longer distances, need higher speeds and
    power.
  • SE Asia tough environment, need sturdy, weather
    proof.
  • Rest of World - most will need sturdy, cheap
    vehicles.
  • China exports ebikes to 170 different countries!

24
Estimated Sales (units) 2008
  • China 21,000,000
  • EU 400,000
  • Japan 300,000
  • India 270,000
  • USA / Canada 150,000
  • SE Asia 200,000

25
China Is The Main Event For Electric Bikes - Today
26
International Market Will Be 5 Times Greater Than
China in a Few Years
27
2009 Trend
  • Economic Crisis does not appear to be affecting
    ebikes heavily.
  • Most ebike sales are reported as stable, to
    perhaps down a little.
  • EU sales up.
  • Japan sales up.
  • China domestic sales down. Exports may be up over
    first Half.

28
Year 2007 2008 2009
2010 2011 China 21,000,000 22,000,000
23,000,000 25,000,000 30,000,000 India 85,000
120,000 300,000 500,000
700,000 Japan 300,000 300,000 300,000
325,000 350,000 Europe 250,000 550,000
800,000 1,200,000 2,500,000 Taiwan 10
,000 10,000 11,000
12,000 14,000 SE Asia 200,000
800,000 1,000,000 2,000,000
5,000,000 USA 120,000 170,000 220,000
350,000 500,000 Total 21,965,000
23,950,000 25,631,000 29,387,000
39,064,000
29
EU Markets
  • Holland 26 all bicycle units are now electric,
    but more than 50 of Euros in bike industry.
  • Germany Gaining on Holland
  • Switzerland 10 of all units are now ebikes
  • Italy No data, but obviously on streets
  • UK Lower price, ebikes.
  • France
  • All Others

30
Markets Tomorrow
  • Electric Bikes will become more powerful,
    becoming more like electric mopeds or electric
    motor scooters.
  • Weather protection will be an important
    improvement. The streamlining effect of a shell
    will also increase speed and endurance.
  • Safety will be an important issue, with
    innovations in controls and protection.
  • Sales will expand to about 130 million pieces per
    year at a higher price - or 104 Billion
    dollars.

31
Reasons for Market Growth
  • Fuel Price and Looming supply issues
  • Increasing urbanization leading to Traffic and
    parking congestion
  • Air pollution
  • Government encouragement
  • Alternative sources of energy all work with
    Electric.
  • Personal awareness of green issues
  • Low cost, high utility.

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34
Prediction Total Oil Production 1600 - 2200
35
  • Ready for 262/barrel oil?
  • Two of the world's most successful investors say
    oil will be in short supply in the coming months.
  • By Nelson Schwartz, FORTUNE senior writer
  • January 27, 2006 440 PM EST
  • In this article, the author explains that
    disruptions in the Mid East and South America
    will result in Oil prices between 89.00 and 262.00

36
Just Published Book
37
Parking
  • Auto Parking spaces (including access) requires
    37.2 square meters of land and pavement per car.
    Cost ranges up to 25,000 per space to build in
    some cities.
  • Electric Bike Parking Spaces require ¾ of one
    square meter of any open surface.

38
Some Cities Have No Chance for Parking of Four
Wheelers
39
Vehicles Per Lane
  • At 40KPH, one lane can support 300 500 cars per
    hour. High speed roads up to 2,000 per hour.
  • Same Lanes can handle 6,000 bicycles per hour.

40
Electric Powered Two Wheelers are the Answer
  • Light Electric Vehicles are the solution to many
    of these problems.
  • Electric vehicles of many types will be used
    buses, trains, battery cars and trucks, hybrid
    cars and trucks but the individual transport
    solution for most of the world population will be
    electric two wheelers.

41
Other Transport?
  • Metro and Train are natural allies and companions
    to LEVs.
  • Buses and trains can carry LEVs as they do
    bicycles now.

42
Distribution Channels Today
  • The distribution channels for LEVs are not yet
    well established.
  • Since the most popular products are electric
    bicycles, the bicycle brands have had the most
    success at distributing electric bikes so far.
  • We believe that LEV specialty retailers will
    dominate this in the future.

43
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45
Taiwan and China Main Suppliers Today
  • Taiwanese invested and managed companies dominate
    the production and distribution of electric bikes
    for USA and EU.
  • Chinese factories provide almost all components
    and most assembly.
  • Even Japanese ebikes made in Chinese Factories
    today.

46
CKD and SKD
  • The largest selling SKUs in EU and India are
    shipped from China in SKD or CKD for final
    assembly in local Plants. These do not appear
    on CBA figures or most other export / import
    reports as ebikes.
  • The largest variety of models are shipped as
    complete bikes from China to importers.

47
Prices
  • Ebikes are retail range from about 200 USD to
    9,000 USD.
  • Typical Chinese Price 2400 RMB
  • Typical EU price 900 to 1800 Euros
  • Typical USA price 400 to 1700 US

48
Competitive Landscape
  • EU Accell Group, Other old bike brands,
    Biketec, small importers.
  • USA Bike brands, ebike specialists
  • Role of Taiwanese
  • Role of Japanese
  • Role of Chinese brands
  • Opportunities not well organized, consumers do
    not know where to find ebikes.

49
Margins
  • On average, a bike that has a BOM of 500 USD will
    sell at retail in Holland for 1800 Euros.
  • On average, a bike that has a BOM of 430 USD will
    sell in USA for 1500.00 USD.

50
Warranties
  • EU warranties of 2 years are easily achieved on
    all components except batteries.
  • USA is slowly following lead to 2 year
    warranties.
  • Batteries are problems. Several ways to deal with
    this.
  • Method of warranty service is important.
  • Extended warranties.

51
Sourcing
  • Almost all components are sourced from small
    Chinese factories.
  • Most bikes are assembled by OEM factories managed
    by Taiwanese.
  • Not enough testing is done.
  • Lowest priced units are usually problematic.
  • This could be the subject of many hours of
    discussion.

52
Bike Shops 101
  • Benjamin operated bicycle shop chain in USA for
    15 years Trek top 25, Schwinn top 50, etc. He
    has visited more than 200 ebike retailers in
    USA, EU, China, Taiwan, India, Thailand, Vietnam,
    Japan. Benjamin has worked the sales and service
    areas of ebike retailers in USA to learn how the
    consumers act.
  • Key issue with specialty retail is training,
    salesmanship, ability to deliver information to
    consumer, and After Sales Service.
  • Certain that ebike specialists will dominate this
    category. What format they will take is not yet
    clear, but likely to resemble motorcycle dealers,
    and emerge from bicycle industry in a way similar
    to exercise equipment shops.

53
Retail Channels
  • USA Bicycle shop, Wal Mart, Costco, Best Buy,
    LEV Specialist, Internet.
  • EU Bicycle Shop, Halfords, Electronics shop,
    LEV Specialist
  • China E bike shop, bicycle shop, department
    store, electronics store.
  • India Bicycle shop, Ebike specialists
  • Japan bicycle shop, motor sports retailer.

54
Training and Equipment
  • Key issue for retailers is ability to train staff
    . A lot of information needs to be exchanged or
    delivered before the consumer can make a buying
    decision.
  • Test rides are necessary. On floor charging
    required.
  • Service department and spares are essential.
  • Appropriate relationships with suppliers are
    needed so that information flows back to
    suppliers.

55
Warranties and Refunds
  • Easy refunds are disasters for ebikes consumers
    use them as a way to test or play with the bikes
    for a few days.
  • Warranties require training, a service
    department, data logging, spares, and a way to
    communicate effectively with the suppliers to
    correct problems.
  • Extended warranties on batteries issues.
  • Battery data tracking.

56
We Have a Great Future!?????????!
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