Fossil Fuels how long will they last

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Fossil Fuels - how long will they last?
Exploring the Evidence of Peak Oil Production
Kaliningrad, Russia, October 28, 2005
Kjell Aleklett Uppsala University, Sweden
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Oil Reserves
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Natural Gas reserves
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Coal Reserves
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Where to find fossil fuel
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Gas Becoming Global
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The future of energy
The end of the Oil Age
Oct 23rd 2003 Leaders from The Economist print
edition
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IEA, International Energy Agency, and the future
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Oil - Trends in Demand
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Olja föder välfärd
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Oil is the driving force of the world economy
Relation between Oil Demand and GDP Growth,
figure 3.1 in WEO2004
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Numbers for China
Percentage of global population 21 Percentage
of global oil consumption 8, 6.3 Mbpd Average
increase in GDP last 5 years 8.2 Average
increase in oil consumption last 5 years 8.4
Official statement is that China will reach
Peak Oil in 2009 Future directions Consumption
of 21 of the global oil Today 17.6 mbpd, year
2030 25 mbpd Questions Is it OK that China
consume 21 of the global oil production? Is it
possible for the oil exporting countries to
deliver 22 mbpd to China in 2030?
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How much oil to find
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IEA uses data from USGS
If not 3300 Gb then .
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100 Gb of oil in the fields of Iraq
Kirkuk
East Baghdad
Majnoon
West Qurna
Rumaila
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
Kirkuk
Let us squeeze in 100 Gb of oil into one bottle
of Champagne.
East Baghdad
Majnoon
West Qurna
Rumaila
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
There is one bottle in Iraq and if we pore the
content into four glasses each glass represents a
consumption of 25 billion barrels per year. This
was the consumption around year 2000, today we
consume 30 billion barrels per year.
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
Consumption so far
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
Reserves according to IEA
Consumption so far
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
Reserves according to ASPO
?
Consumption so far
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
According to IEA base scenario we must find 13
more bottles within the next 25 years
Reserves according to IEA
Consumption so far
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The Oil Champagne Comparisons
According to IEA base scenario we must find 13
more bottles within the next 20 years
?
Reserves according to IEA
?
Consumption so far
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Discovery in the past and in the future
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M. KingHubbert
f. 1903, d 1989 "Our ignorance is not so vast
as our failure to use what we know."
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US Lower 48
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US Lower 48
35 years
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Found and produced oil in Norway
The time between tops is 27 years
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Peak in production
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FSU
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Is Russia our future?
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Russian oil production 2001-2020 (YUKOS internal
study)
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Russia
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60 Gb to produce
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Production
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IEA production forecast
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Production/Consumption
IEA Consumption 2003 2030 1000 billion barrels
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The Oil Triangle
Within the Oil Triangle you can find roughly 60
percent of the remaining oil reserves in the
world. The 2001 Cheney report, US Energy Policy,
says that in year 2020 around 54 to 67 percent of
the world producttion of oil needs to come from
the Oil Triangle.
Qatar
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Sadad Al Husseini26-Oct-2004
Sadad Al Husseini, just retired as vice-president
of the Saudi oil company Aramco The American
government's forecast for future oil supplies are
a "dangerous over-estimate".
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Oil export
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Oil exporting countries
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The future
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The world needs new oil fields
ExxonMobil In other words, by 2015, we will
need to find, develop and produce a volume of new
oil and gas that is equal to eight out of every
10 barrels being produced today.
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A Producers Perspective on the Oil Industry
London 2004 Sadad I. Al-Husseini Dhahran, Saudi
Arabia
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120.6
120 mm b/d
Reservoir capability declines the leaking
bucket syndrome
2 increase
100 mm b/d
38.6 mmbd
82 /-
80 mm b/d
97.6 mmbd
- 59 mmbd
60 mm b/d
3-5 capability decline rate ExxonMobil 4-6
40 mm b/d
20 mm b/d
2025
2015
2005
1995
97.6 mmbd 10 Saudi Arabias by 2025
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?
The first field in the North Sea was discovered
in year 1969. The oil production peaked 30 years
later with a maximum production of 6 mbpd. Is it
possible to make new discoveries within 25 years
that will yield a production of 25 mbpd in year
2030?
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WWW.PEAKOIL.NET Executive boardPresident
Kjell Aleklett, Professor, Uppsala University,
Sweden, Honorary chairman Colin Campbell, Dr,
Cork, IrelandSecretary Roger W. Bentley, Dr,
Reading University, UK, Member Rui Rosa,
Professor,  University of Evora, Portugal ASPO
is a network of scientists, affiliated with
European institutions and universities, having an
interest in determining the date and impact of
the peak and decline of the world's production of
oil and gas, due to resource constraints. 
Mission of ASPO  1. Define and evaluate the
world's endowment of oil and gas  2. Model
depletion, taking due account of demand,
economics, technology and politics  3. Raise
awareness of the serious consequences for
Mankind. 
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Understanding technology
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How to plan production from an oilfield
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Production in reality
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Production from individual fields in Norway,
Ekofisk was first
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Production from individual fields in Norway
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Production from individual fields in Norway
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Prudhoe Bay - Reported Reserves
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Prudhoe Bay
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EXPERIENCE U. S. LOWER 48 OIL PRODUCTION
Dramatic Improvement in Oil Field Technology
3.5
Production
3.0
2.5
80
PRODUCTION (Billions of Barrels per Year)
2.0
PRICE (2003 per barrels)
1.5
Price
1.0
0.5
0
0
1950 1960 1970 1980
1990 2000
High prices advanced technology did not
reverse trends!
SAIC / MISI
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USA wildcats
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US Lower 48
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