Poverty Reduction Trends in the Kyrgyz Republic and Poverty Measurement Accuracy

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Poverty Reduction Trends in the Kyrgyz Republic
and Poverty Measurement Accuracy

• National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz
  Republic
• Candidate of physical-mathematical sciences,
  candidate of economic sciences Zarylbek Kudabaev
• ???????, 19 ?????? 2009 ?.

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On methodology of poverty level estimation

• The methodology of poverty level estimation is
  based on objective measurement of household
  expenditures in accordance with standards of
  Living Standard Measuring Surveys (LSMS) of the
  World Bank
• Nutrition structure of 1/3 part of the population
  with lowest incomes is estimated, and quantity of
  products ensuring established food energy
  consumption level of 2100 kcal/day is determined.
• Food basket cost is estimated.
• Total amount of minimally required expenditures
  on non-food goods and services is determined on
  the basis of actual expenditures of 1/3 part of
  the population with lowest incomes.
• Poverty line is a cost of food basket and
  minimally required set on non-food goods and
  services.

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On methodology of poverty level estimation
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On methodology of poverty level estimation

• Poverty level is calculated by the following
  formulae
• Extreme poverty level is calculated similarly,
• Poverty depth/poverty gap index (summing by poor
  households)
• Poverty severity /squared poverty gap index

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On methodology of poverty level estimation
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On methodology of poverty level estimation
Dynamics of poverty level indicators,
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On methodology of poverty level estimation
Relationship between GDP growth and poverty level
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General poverty reduction trends in 2000-2002
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General poverty reduction trends in 2000-2002
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General poverty reduction trends in 2000-2002

• Real per capita expenditures growth rates by
  deciles, 2001-2002

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Revelation of impact of economic growth and
inequality on poverty reduction

• A broad class of poverty indicators is described
  by the formula
• here f(x) is income distribution density
  function, z poverty line, P(z, x) function
  expressing the extent of poverty under per capita
  income ? lt z. For example, function of
  Forster-Greer-Thorbecke class
• Poverty indicators depend on two factors mean
  income and degree of inequality in income
  distribution. Therefore, poverty indicator could
  be interpreted as a function of mean income and
  Lorenz curve showing income distribution in the
  society.

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Revelation of impact of economic growth and
inequality on poverty reduction

• Growth elasticity index. To measure the impact of
  growth, the elasticity of poverty indicator with
  respect to mean income (with unchanged Lorenz
  curve) could be represented in the following way
• Inequality elasticity index (assuming that
  changes in inequality are expressed in parallel
  shift of Lorenz curve). The elasticity of poverty
  indicator with respect to Gini index (with
  unchanged mean income).

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Revelation of impact of economic growth and
inequality on poverty reduction

• Index of choice between growth and inequality
  (ICGI). Economic growth increases mean income,
  which positively influences poverty reduction. If
  economic growth also increases inequality, which
  influences poverty negatively, then a question
  emerges What is the relationship between
  inequality and growth?
• For poverty depth (poverty gap index)

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Revelation of impact of economic growth and
inequality on poverty reduction
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Revelation of impact of economic growth and
inequality on poverty reduction
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Accuracy of poverty measuring
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Accuracy of poverty measuring

• What is National Statistical Committee doing to
  improve quality of household survey?
• Sample size has been increased up to 5016
  households.
• Analysis of variance indicates that intergroup
  variance dominates over intragroup variance.
  Group size has been decreased from 25 to 11.
• Wealthier households more frequently refuse to
  participate in the survey. Therefore, the problem
  of reduction of load on respondents time is
  essential for sample representativeness.
  Quarterly survey of households instead of
  previously practiced monthly survey.

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Calculation of the UN indices
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Calculation of the UN indices HDI dynamics in
CIS countries, 1996-1999
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Calculation of the UN indices
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• Thank you for your attention !