Operational Ocean Forecasting in the Southern Hemisphere: Observations, Models and Systems

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Operational Ocean Forecasting in the Southern
Hemisphere Observations, Models and
Systems CLIVAR/OOPC/GOOS/Argo Workshop on the
South Pacific 11-14 October 2005 Universidad de
Concepción, Concepción, Chile. Andreas
Schiller CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric
Research Hobart, Australia N. R. Smith
BMRC Melbourne, Australia

• Acknowledgements
• John Gould
• Bluelink Team

http//www.marine.csiro.au/bluelink/
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Operational Oceanography

• "operational"
• Processing is done in a routine and regular way,
  with a pre-determined systematic approach and
  constant monitoring of performance.
• "real-time"
• rapid turn around of data or products it
  normally implies automation.
• GODAE
• Regular comprehensive descriptions of the ocean
  circulation at high temporal and spatial
  resolution
• Consistent with a suite of remote and in-situ
  measurements and appropriate dynamical and
  physical constraints

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Building Ocean Prediction Systems Data
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Needs System of Complementary Networks, including
Argo.Overall 55 complete.Argo 67 complete
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Argo Data Quantity
Monthly profile counts
Argo
of Argo data on GTS in lt24hrs
XBT
Argo has been the dominant source of ocean
profile data since end of 2003. Approx 90 of
these profiles are available in real time from
two Argo global data centres (GDACs) and on the
GTS
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Sustainability of Satellites
?
QuikSCAT
Microwave SST
Altimetry
Ocean color
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GODAE Modelling/Assimilation Centres

• Australia (BLUELINK) Regional Australia
• seas to Global Ocean
• Japan N. Pacific to Global Ocean
• US (HYCOM-US and ECCO projects)
• N. Atlantic and N. Pacific to Global Ocean
• Europe (Mersea Consortium)
• Italy (MFS) Mediterranean Sea
• France (MERCATOR) N. Atlantic and Mediterranean
  Sea to Global Ocean
• Norway (TOPAZ) North Atlantic to Arctic
• UK (FOAM) N. Atlantic / Global ocean

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National security
Offshore energy
Shipping safety
Water quality
Fisheries and marine management
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Service Architecture
Hazard warnings Public fcsts Oceanmarine
met Marine environment Ecosystem Coastal
fcsts Coastal management Brokers THORPEX IGBPGODA
E? GODAECLIVAR
NMHS ocean
NOP
Regional Ocean FCST
CoastalOcean FCSTServices
GlobalInitiatives
NOP Numerical Ocean Prediction!
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Benefits of and Issues for Operational
Oceanography

• Benefits (cf. CIVAR GSOP)
• Provides high temporal and eddy-resolving model
  solutions in close agreement with obs. (cf.
  coarse resolution climate models ECCO)
• Reanalyses are a key component of operational
  oceanography
• Issues
• Focus predominantly on upper ocean
• Uncoupled ocean-only models (due to high
  computational costs) accuracy of surface forcing
  fields?
• Limitations wrt integration times (1992 onwards,
  sparse data cover prior to 1992)
• Scientific issues
• Estimates of uncertainty
• Ensembles
• Predictability for sub-systems (coastal)
• Extreme ocean events

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Conclusions

• Operational ocean prediction has a future in its
  own right
• Marine environment main driver
• Sustained ocean observing system
• Wonderful progress but sustainability
• Several prototype global, regional systems
• Excellent national and international cooperation
• Level of investment encouraging
• Beyond GODAE
• GODAE (Numerical) Ocean Prediction
• Delivering information on the past, present and
  future state of the ocean
• Need business case for ocean prediction
  (socio-economic)
• Scientific extensions
• Options
• (Global) biogeochemistry, ecosystems
• Extended weather (and hazard) prediction
• Coastal assimilation and predictability CODAE

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BLUElink Reanalysis BRAN-1

• Ocean Reanalysis 1992-2005
• Boundary conditions for nested models
• Physical fields for biogeochemical applications
• part of GODAE Intercomparison Project

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Model Summary
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Regional Ocean Circulation
January
July
January
July
22ºS
0-250m
32ºS
250-500m
42ºS
800-1200m
m/s
m/s
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(No Transcript)
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XBT Section PX34 Geostrophic (0-2000db) Ekman
Transports
Reanalysis
Observations
Reanalysis (weekly ave.)
TOTAL Transport
Reanalysis (3-monthly filtered)
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Relocatable Ocean Atmosphere Model (ROAM)
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Ocean Modelling System at Noumea Some Runs
High resolution Run New caledonia EEZ
High resolution model and long-term coastal CTD
from IRD network are well fitted.
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Summary BLUElink

• Integrated reanalyses of the ocean state over
  the last 13
• years. Public access now available for
  registered users
• http//www.marine.csiro.au/bluelink/
• Operational Outputs (available by 2006/07)
• Ocean Weather maps providing forecasts and
• information on the open and coastal ocean up
  to
• 7-28 days in advance
• Prognostic variables SSH 3-D ocean
  temperature,
• salinity and currents (BoM)

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BLUElink II (2006-2010)

• Higher resolution models
• global ? coastal ? littoral zone
• Improved global analysis and prediction system
  (e.g.
• Ensemble Kalman Filter)
• Downscaling relocatable, fully coupled
  regional ocean-
• atmosphere model

Towards biogeochmical modelling and prediction
ocean colour (RD)
Chl-a
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Thank You!
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Argo Goals
To deploy and maintain a 3 x 3 array of
autonomous profiling floats measuring
subsurface velocity and temperature/salinity
profiles. Preferred common velocity level
1000m, profiling to 2000m. Deliver data in
real time and delayed mode. All data freely
available
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Present Argo Status
1970 Floats are operating (67 of target)
April 2004
July 2005
Recent progress Major differences in S
Hemisphere Filling of South Pacific Increased
density in Indian Increased density S
Atlantic More countries participating
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Applications

• Public good ocean and coastal services
• Coastal (CODAE concept)
• Open-ocean (ecosystem, )
• Weather and hazard prediction
• Seasonal and longer-term climate
• Scientific and technical

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Model Summary
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Gordon (2001)

• Indo-Pacific Throughflow
• important branch of global oceanic thermohaline
  circulation
• (near-surface return flow from Pacific to
  Atlantic)
• both intra-seasonal and inter-annual variability
  play role in
• transport variability (5-15 Sv)
• interactions with tropical climate phenomena,
  e.g. ENSO, IOZM/DM
• (heat and freshwater transports)
• INSTANT 2003-2006 (Indonesia, USA, France,
  Netherlands, Australia)

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Makassar Strait Transport Time
Series
PacificOcean
Indian Ocean
BRAN -8.3 Sv 4.5 Sv Recent obs.-based
estimate -8.1Sv (-7.9 Sv for 1997) (Gordon
pers. comm.)
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Makassar Strait Moorings
Intraseasonal
The great 97/98 El Niño
Kelvin
Courtesy A.L. Gordon
Courtesy A.L. Gordon
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Makassar Strait Temperature Section 1997/1998
Observations
Reanalysis
(Ffield et al., 2000)
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Top-Bottom Volume Transports (1992-2001)
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XBT Section IX1 Southward Geostrophic
(0-700db) Ekman Transports
Reanalysis
Observations
Reanalysis (daily ave.)
Reanalysis (bi-monthly filtered)
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Surface Eddy Kinetic Energy January
Altimetry
Model
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EKE of Total Kinetic Energy
January
July
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Surface Transports 0-100m Mean Kinetic Energy
July
January
Integrated Transports in 1º x 1º bins
10 Sv
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EAC and Sydney-to-Hobart Yacht Race
East Australia Current 31 December 2004 overlaid
with track of yacht AERA