FAO

1
FAO
CGIAR
WMO
2
GECAFS Vision
A food-secure future for those most vulnerable to
environmental stress.
3
Fundamental Questions

• How will Global Environmental Change affect the
  vulnerability of food systems in different
  regions?
• How might food systems be adapted to cope with
  GEC so as to enhance food security?
• What would be the consequences of adaptation
  options for environmental and socioeconomic
  conditions?

4
Key Terms

• Global Environmental Change
• changes in the biogeophysical environment
• Food Systems
• an interconnected set of processes and activities
• Food Security
• a state or condition underpinned by food systems

5
Global Environmental Change Changes in the
biophysical environment caused or strongly
influenced by human activities
For example changes in
Land cover soils Atmospheric composition
Climate variability means Water availability
quality
Nitrogen availability cycling Biodiversity Sea
currents salinity Sea level
6
Global Environmental Change

• Examples of human activities leading to GEC

Agricultural intensification Freshwater
extraction Fisheries overexploitation Waste
production
Deforestation Fossil fuel consumption
Urbanisation Land reclamation
7
Components of Food Systems Key Elements
FOOD UTILISATION
FOOD ACCESS

• Affordability
• Allocation
• Preference

• Nutritional Value
• Social Value
• Food Safety

FOOD AVAILABILITY

• Production
• Distribution
• Exchange

8
Food Security

• exists when all people, at all times, have
  physical and economic access to sufficient, safe,
  and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs
  and food preferences for an active and healthy
  life.
• (definition from the World Food Summit)
• emphasizes access for individuals, households,
  communities to food.

9
GECAFS Goal
To determine strategies to cope with the impacts
of GEC on food systems and to assess the
environmental and socioeconomic consequences of
adaptive responses aimed at improving food
security.
10
Achieving the Goal

• Improve understanding of the interactions between
  food systems and key socioeconomic and
  biogeophysical components of the Earth System.
• Deliver the new science necessary to assist
  policy formulation for improving food security in
  the face of GEC.
• These are to be undertaken simultaneously

11
Global Environmental Change and Food Systems
Research
Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation
12
Research Approaches

• 1. Conceptual Methodological Research
• Food Systems Concepts
• Vulnerability Concepts
• Scenario Construction
• Decision Support Systems
• 2. Food Systems Research in
• Indo-Gangetic Plain
• Caribbean
• Southern Africa

13
Conceptual Methodological Research

• Develops a GEC science agenda that
• targets generic science issues
• improves understanding of the interactions
  between the Earth System and Food Systems
• integrates natural and social sciences
• adds value to basic science by underpinning
  applied science
• underpins regionally-based food systems research

Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation

• International networking approach
• Led by small, specialist committees
• Coordinated by dedicated Science Officers
• Specific funding applications, mainly to science
  agencies

14
Regional Food Systems Research

• Develops a GEC science agenda that
• targets regional scientific issues
• relates to regional development needs
• interacts effectively with the regional policy
  making process
• encourages more support for the regional science
  communities
• provides contexts for conceptual research

Conditions Scenarios
Vulnerability Impacts
Feedbacks
Decision Support
Current Food Systems
Adapted Food Systems
Adaptation

• Regional studies approach
• Led by regional scientists assisted by GECAFS IPO
• Specific funding applications, mainly to
  development agencies

15
Caribbean
Indo-Gangetic Plain
Predominant Diet Pattern Mixed, mainly imported
(majority) Roots/tubers fish (sig.
minority) Key Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Trade policies and
competitiveness Exporting quality produce
processed products Poverty in rural communities
Main GEC Issues Climate variability extreme
events Water availability Land degradation Sea
currents salinity Biodiversity loss Sea level
Main GEC Issues Climate variability Glacier and
snow melt Water availability quality Nitrogen
availability cycling GHG emissions
Predominant Diet Pattern Rice fish (east
IGP) Wheat/rice meat (west IGP) Key Policy
Issues Increased agric. production Limiting env.
degradation Improved socioecon.
conditions Reduced labour migration
Southern Africa
Main GEC Issues Climate variability
ENSO Climate mean values Water availability
quality Land degradation Biodiversity loss
Predominant Diet Pattern Meat
Maize/Tubers Mixed (significant minority) Key
Policy Issues Food security and
self-sufficiency Regional integration and
trade Rural infrastructure and market
access Disaster response and safety nets
16
Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
17
Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
18
Research Relevance and Partnerships
Science Agendas
Development Agendas
Policy Makers
Resource Managers
Science
Socio- economic
Natural
19
Food Systems Concepts Research Questions

1. What parameters describe food systems so as to
   facilitate GECAFS research?
2. Within given food systems, which parameters are
   most sensitive to GEC?
3. Who are the agents within each major food system,
   what are their roles, and how do they interact?

20
Food Systems Vulnerability Research Questions

1. What are the dimensions of risk in vulnerable
   food systems?
2. What are the levels of present risks and how
   sensitive are they to present trends and future
   scenarios of vulnerability?
3. How do risks compare among vulnerable
   populations, between regions and from the local
   to regional scales?

21
GECAFS Southern Africa initiative
22
GECAFS Southern Africa Issue Identification
Workshop
Development Bank of Southern Africa Midrand,
South Africa April 2003
Objective To identify the key issues of concern
and information needs for national and regional
planning with regard to food provision in the
context of Global Environmental Change
23
GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

• Overarching questions identified
• What are the vulnerable points in the food
  systems in Southern Africa?
• What are the range of options to reduce
  vulnerability (e.g. productions systems, trade,
  political)?
• What factors need to be included in comprehensive
  scenarios (climate change is one of many
  factors)?
• Is information delivered of adequate quality,
  timeliness and resolution?
• How can capacity be increased to deliver and
  translate technical information to improve policy
  formulation?

24
GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

• Key outputs 1
• Food security needs to be addressed at both SADC
  and national levels
• A significant proportion of the regions food is
  self provided (especially in rural areas) but
  intra- and inter-national trade is also important
• National Food Security relates to satisfying
  national requirements from domestic production
  and trade
• National Self Sufficiency relates to satisfying
  national requirements from domestic production
  alone

25
GECAFS DBSA Workshop April 2003

• Key outputs 2
• Agriculture in SADC is now gearing more towards
  commercial crops (e.g. tobacco, horticulture),
  and thus away in part from subsistence crops
  (e.g. maize, sorghum)
• Increasing self-sufficiency will require
  empowering the producer to a greater extent with
  regard to access to credit, insurance, land
  rights, etc.
• Institutional arrangements across the region lead
  to inconsistencies regarding access to technology
  and financial instruments.

26
Activity since DBSA Workshop

• Follow-up discussions with regions scientists,
  resource managers, policy-makers and donors
• gt review of information needs
• Improved definition of Food Systems research
• Preparative discussion meeting (UCT,
  mid-September 2004)

27
Apr 04 GECAFS SAF Issue Identification WS DBSA
Food Systems London Oct 04
SAVI Cape Town Oct 04

• Dec 04
  
• Food Systems WS
• Gaborone
• Day 1 Food Systems
• Day 2 Vulnerability of Food Systems aspects
• Day 3 Vulnerability of Food Systems to GEC.

DSS Florida Jan 05

• Research Questions on Vulnerability of Food
  Systems and Impacts
• Proposal for next WS

Scenarios Dhaka Mch 05
Mid 05 GECAFS SAF Research Planning WS Research
Questions on Adaptation Feedbacks
Research Proposal Preparation