Toolbox for ICZM

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Toolbox for ICZM

• Policy analysis

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INITIATION
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTATION
MONITORING EVALUATION
Policy analysis CBA, SEA/EIA etc.
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Ex post policy analysis effectiveness,
efficiency, impacts learning lessons
INITIATION
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTATION
MONITORING EVALUATION
Ex ante Policy analysis CBA, SEA/EIA
etc. thinking before acting
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Analysing ex ante

• Goal achievement will we achieve our
  objectives?
• Economic, socio-cultural and environmental
  consequences of a policy/programme/project
• Other issues administrative effects, effects on
  equity, effects on women etc.
• THINK BEFORE YOU ACT

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CBA, EIA, SEA, Risk analysis, Social and
health impact analysis, Distributional equity
analysis, Gender impact analysis

• the same idea and the same analysis steps, but a
  different point of view

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Steps in policy analysis

1. Problem analysis
2. Establishing criteria
3. Identifying alternatives
4. Evaluating alternatives
5. Ranking alternatives

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Problem analysis

• Defining the problem/s
• what issues/s is perceived problematic?
• views on cause and effect relationships behind
  the current problematic situation
• involved sectors and stakeholders
• future development trends what is the situation
  in year x, if the current situation remains
  (baseline development projection)
• what is the desired situation (policy goals)

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Problem analysis Finnish Climate Policy

• Problem definition
• Emissions of greenhouse gases must be cut down
• Main sources energy production and use, traffic,
  agriculture
• Baseline development projection with current
  development trends, Finland will not meet the
  Kyoto target in 2010
• Desired situation to meet the Kyoto target

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Establishing criteria ( point of view in
analysis)

• goal achievement following the cause and effect
  chain of a certain policy and checking that the
  goal is achieved
• environmental effects?
• socio-cultural effects?
• economic effects?
• effects on women?
• effects on poor, children, handicapped?
• MULTICRITERIA?

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Establishing criteria Finnish Climate Policy

• goal achievement emissions of greenhouse gases
  2002-2020 (Gov. institute on Technical Research)
• economic effects effects of policies on
  households,industry,GNP, employment, income
  distribution etc. (Gov. institute on Economic
  Research)
• environmental effects effects on air and water
  pollution, waste and resource use, landscapes
  etc. (SYKE)
• regional effects (regional policy concern)

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Identifying alternatives

• a combination of measures for bridging the cap
  between the desired situation and the baseline
  (zero) situation
• can be designed by the initiators or by
  interest/pressure groups
• 1. generation of alternatives (brainstorming)
• 2. preselection of some (2-5?) alternatives
• involving as different alternatives as possible,
  taking alternatives that different/conflicting
  interest groups propose as a solution for the
  problem
• EXPLORE ALL THE POSSIBLE WORLDS

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Identifying alternativesFinnish Climate Policy

• Interministerial working group, public seminars
• Main conflicting issues nuclear power or natural
  gas?
• Option 1 Natural gas option
• Option 2 One more nuclear power station option
• Both options included the same set of energy
  saving, renewable energy promotion, spatial
  planning etc. measures
• (alternatives did not deal with some important
  conflicting issues)

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Evaluating Alternatives 1

• Comparing effects in the baseline scenario
  (0-alternative) with effects of alternative
  policy scenarios
• Effect of an alternative policy in year x
• situation in year x with the policy scenario
  minus situation in year x with the baseline
  scenario
• Transparency and openness of analysis crucial
  especially if models are used otherwise the
  analysis can be captured by the strongest
  interest groups

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Evaluating Alternatives 2
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Evaluating alternativesFinnish Climate Policy

• Quantitative methods macroeconomic models,
  technical/engineering models, air quality models
• Qualitative methods literature reviews,
  interviews/expert opinion, surveys, public and
  expert seminars
• Problems with transparency concerning model
  analyses

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Ranking alternatives

• aggregated methods scores on various criteria
  (i.e. economic, environmental effects etc.) are
  put together in some common unit (points, money)
  decision makers provided with the answer
• disaggregated methods results for every
  criterion evaluated are presented in their own
  natural units (Strawberries are not expressed in
  meatball units) decision makers have to weigh
  different aspects themselves

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Ranking alternativesFinnish climate policy

• Disaggregated analysis
• Clear difference baseline vs. policy scenarios
• costs and environmental effects
• Economic effects little difference between
  alternatives, nuclear alternative reduces GNP
  0.1 less
• Environmental effects little differences between
  alternatives, natural gas alternative reduces
  fine particles and heavy metals x more
• Decision? Parliament voted for a new nuclear
  plant in May 2002, other measures implemented
  slowly