Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK. [e-mail], www.globec.org

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GLOBEC, Focus 4 and SPACC
Manuel Barange, GLOBEC IPO. Plymouth Marine
Laboratory, Prospect Place, Plymouth PL1 3DH, UK.
M.barange_at_pml.ac.uk, www.globec.org
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GOAL To advance our understanding of the
structure and functioning of the global ocean
ecosystem, its major subsystems, and its response
to physical forcing so that a capability can be
developed to forecast the responses of the marine
ecosystem to global change.
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GLOBECs Objectives

• 1- To better understand how multiscale
  physical-environmental processes force
  large-scale changes in marine ecosystems

• 2- To determine the relationship between
  structure and dynamics in a variety of oceanic
  systems which typify significant components of
  the global ocean ecosystem

• 3- To determine the impacts of global change on
  stock dynamics using coupled physical, chemical
  and biological models linked to appropriate
  observation systems

• 4- To determine how changing marine ecosystems
  will affect the global earth system by
  identifying and quantifying feedback mechanisms

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GLOBEC FOCUSES ON ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE

• underpinned by the belief that understanding the
  role of variability in the functioning of marine
  ecosystems is essential to manage marine living
  resources.

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YET ASPIRES TO BE POLICY RELEVANT
Reykjavik Declaration on Responsible Fisheries in
the Marine Ecosystem (FAO 2001) signed by over
100 fishing nations and committing them to
undertake research in pursue of
Ecosystem-Based-Fisheries-Management
we will undertake to... ...identify and
describe the structure, components and
functioning of relevant marine ecosystems, diet
composition and food webs, species interactions
and predator-prey relationships, the role of
habitat and the biological, physical and
oceanographic factors affecting ecosystem
stability and resilience (in other words GLOBEC
research)
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USA Canada Mexico Peru Chile Brazil Angola Namibia
South Africa Morocco Mauritania Senegal Australia
New Zealand New Caledonia Japan Korea China Russi
a Ukraine Turkey Spain Portugal Italy Germany Fran
ce UK Netherlands Denmark Norway
Countries participating in GLOBEC activities at
national, multinational or Regional level
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GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

• REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
• PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying
  Capacity
• ICES-GLOBEC Cod and Climate Change
• Southern Ocean GLOBEC
• Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC)
• In preparation
• - Large Pelagics
• - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

• RESEARCH FOCI
• Retrospective Analysis Working Group
• Process Studies WG
• Prediction and Modelling WG
• Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC International Project Office
National / Multinational Activities
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Climate Change and Carrying Capacity (PICES-CCCC)
1.0
Shrimp
Cod/ Pollock
0.6
Flatfish
0.2
Other
1979
1971
1998
1962
1953
1989
1980
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Cod and Climate Change Programme (ICES-CCC)
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Southern Ocean Programme (SO-GLOBEC)
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CLIMATE IMPACTS ON OCEANIC TOP PREDATORS
(CLIOTOP). Leader P Lehodey, New Caledonia O
Maury, France
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1
0
Standardised Blue fin tuna numbers
-1
-2
Ravier Fromentin 2001 ICES J Mar Sci 58
1900
1950
1750
1800
1850
1650
1700
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ECOSYSTEM STUDIES OF SUBARCTIC SEAS (ESAS).
Leader G Hunt, USA
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Small Pelagic Fishes and Climate Change (SPACC)
The long-range goal is to forecast how the
productivity of small pelagic fish populations
will be altered by climate variability and
change. SPACC will involve process studies, based
on comparisons of standard measurements from
different ecosystems, and retrospective studies
built around palaeoecological and genetic data.
Chairpersons Claude Roy (France)/ Dave Checkley
(USA)
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1
15
14
1
7
10
8
14
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Flounders, halibuts, soles
Cods, hakes, haddocks
Redfishes, basses, conge
Jacks, mullets, sauries
What are SPACCs challenges? - The urgency of
stock assessments - Luxury science for developing
countries? - Geographical distance between
scientists - Lack of administrative home - The
science itself
Herrings, sardines, anchovies
Tunas, bonitos, billfish
Mackerels, snoeks, cutlassfishes
Sharks, rays, chimaeras
Miscell marine fishes

• Why SPACC?
• - Small pelagic fish account for 1/3 of worlds
  catches
• - Worldwide distribution
• Abundant in similar environments (upwelling
  regions)
• Major importance for the economy of developing
  regions
• - Vulnerable to decadal variability in
  environment

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SPACC Structure - March 2000
SPACC Executive Committee 2003 J Alheit
(Germany) M Barange (UK) T Baumgartner (Mexico) L
Castro (Chile) D Checkley (USA- co- Chair) R
Guevara (Peru) L Motos (Spain) H Nakata (Japan) C
Roy (France- co-Chair) C van der Lingen (South
Africa)

• to develop comparative integration activities,
  in support of existing field work, along four
  research themes
• Long term Changes in Ecosystems
• Comparative Population Dynamics
• Reproductive Habitat Dynamics
• Economic Implications of Climate Change

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Theme 1 Long term Changes in Ecosystems Lead J
Alheit/ T Baumgartner

• - SUPPORT MONITORING RESEARCH PROGRAMMES, CURATE
  LONG TERM TIME SERIES AND PROMOTE COMPARATIVE
  STUDIES.
• e.g. Workshop on Long-term changes in the NE
  and SE Pacific. Lima, Peru, May 2001. Funding
  IAI-EPCOR and GLOBEC.
• PROMOTE THE IMPLEMENTATION OF PALEOCEANOGRAPHIC
  RESEARCH ACTIVITIES AND DEVELOP COMMON
  METHODOLOGIES.
• e.g. GLOBEC Paleoceanographic methodology
  workshop. Munich, Germany, October 2001.
  Funding Local.

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Theme 2 Comparative Population Dynamics Lead M
Barange (UK)

• -DEVELOPMENT OF GLOBAL COMPARATIVE STUDIES ON THE
  PRODUCTIVITY OF PELAGIC FISH STOCKS.
• e.g. Jacobson et al. 2000. Surplus production,
  variability and climate change in the great
  sardine and anchovy fisheries. Can. J. Fish.
  Aquat. Sci. 58 1891-1903. Funding SCOR and
  GLOBEC.
• PROMOTE USE OF ENVIRONMENTAL/ CLIMATE DATA IN
  FISH MANAGEMENT PROCEDURES
• e.g. Study group on Use on environmental
  indices in the management of pelagic fish
  populations. South Africa, December 2001
  Paris, December 2002 (GLOBEC Spec. Contr. 5 and
  6). Funding IOC

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Theme 3 Reproductive Habitat Dynamics Lead D.
Checkley (USA) and C. Roy (France)

• DEVELOPMENT OF COMMON TECHNOLOGIES FOR THE STUDY
  OF SPAWNING HABITATS
• e.g. Use of the CUFES for mapping spawning
  habitats of pelagic fish. San Sebastian, Spain,
  February 2000 (GLOBEC Report 14). Funding
  participants and SCOR
• - PROMOTE COMPARATIVE STUDIES LINKING CLIMATE
  CHANGE WITH SPAWNING HABITAT CHANGES, AND DEVELOP
  MECHANISMS TO TRANSLATE THESE CHANGES INTO
  MANAGEMENT ACTIONS
• e.g. Small pelagic fish spawning habitat
  dynamics and the daily egg production method
  and Characterizing and Comparing the Spawning
  Habitats of Small Pelagic Fish. Concepcion,
  Chile. Funding Local/ IRD/ BENEFIT/ SCOR/
  participants.

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Theme 4 Economic Implications of Climate
Change. Lead Sam Herrick/ Dale Squires (USA)

• DEVELOP SCENARIO ANALYSES TO ADDRESS THE
  SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONSEQUENCES OF CHANGES IN PELAGIC
  FISH PRODUCTION
• e.g. Workshop on the economics of small
  pelagics and climate change, Porstmouth, UK.
  September 2004. Funding NOAA, SCOR, GLOBEC

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GLOBEC STRUCTURE
GLOBEC Scientific Steering Committee

• REGIONAL PROGRAMMES
• PICES-GLOBEC Climate Change and Carrying
  Capacity
• ICES-GLOBEC Cod and
• Climate Change
• Southern Ocean GLOBEC
• Small Pelagic fish And Climate Change (SPACC)
• In preparation
• - Large Pelagics
• - Sub-Arctic Ecosystems

• RESEARCH FOCI
• Retrospective Analysis Working Group
• Process Studies WG
• Prediction and Modelling WG
• Feedback from Ecosystem Changes WG

GLOBEC International Project Office
National / Multinational Activities
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GLOBEC Focus 4 Feedbacks from Changes in Marine
Ecosystem Structure To co-operate with other
ocean, atmospheric, terrestrial and social global
change research programmes to estimate feedbacks
from changes in marine ecosystem structure to the
global earth system
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• GLOBEC Focus 4, Activity 4.3
• Social Impacts of Changes in Marine Ecosystems
• Goals
• To understand the interactions between marine
  coastal communities and global changes in marine
  ecosystems
• To understand the capacity of these communities
  to adjust to these changes
• To understand the consequences of these
  adjustments for marine ecosystems.

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Change in Marine Ecosystems
Change in Fishing Communities

• Climate variability
• Internal ecosystem dynamics
• Fishing
• Habitat degradation
• Pollution
• Exotic species, new diseases

• Environmental change
• Demographic Change
• Technological innovations
• Law and property relations
• Policy Change
• Relations of production/reproduction,
• Gender and ethnic relations
• Shifting values

• These interactions involve issues of
• Scale (of interaction, of adaptation, drivers vs
  responses)
• Values (of ecosystem state/ fisheries)
• Knowledge (science versus management versus Local)

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CLIMATE CHANGE OVERFISHING
Case study
collapse of Atlantic cod stocks in Newfoundland
and Labrador, Canada

• Consequences of changes
• Severe social disruption (fishery closures, plant
  closures, unemployment, reduced incomes,
  employment volatility, outmigration, shifts in
  property relations and power)

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• Policy response (ADAPTATION)
• Fishing Moratorium on cod
• Downsize fleet
• Income replacement measures (incl. new quotas
  for alternative spp)

• Thus contributing to further marine ecosystem
  change.

Some Fishers Resilience (capacity to absorb
change)

• Social response (ADAPTATION)
• Fishing effort expands spatially and ecologically
• Effort intensifies on traditional grounds
• Effort shifts across species, down trophic levels

Low Ecosystem Resilience