Conceptualizing the Dynamics for our Project Team

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Conceptualizing the Dynamics for our Project Team

• March 16

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Agenda

• A look back
• Reflection of current situation and Problem
  Definition
• Key Variables
• A short introduction into System Dynamics
• Scope and understanding
• Dynamic Hypotheses
• Overview on the different Sectors
• Model initiation building one Dynamic hypothesis
• Model Components
• Base model Behavior
• Expectations and next steps

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Problem recognition a response to a downward
spiral

• Dynamics of Total Potential for harvesting is
  defined by the combined availability of and
  capacity for dark and white fish

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Problem Statement

• Sustainability of Community depends on total
  revenues, stability, spread of revenues

Community QoL

• H Enough renewable resources
• (both white and dark)
• Reinvestment in plant
• Rising stability reinforces happiness

• F1 Too much success
• Increasing revenues,
• Increasing competition,
• Stock depletion,
• Unequal/unfair profits

• F2 Lack of throughput
• No Market
• Delays in takeoff
• Competition from other communities or
• Fish stock takes longer to renew

1992 2002 2012
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Key Variables
Key Variables
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Dynamic Hypothesis

• Potential Factory output The potential factory
  output should be determined by the availability
  of fish stock. Pushing the system based on the
  attractiveness will finally limit the factory
  output.

Potential factory output
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Dynamic Hypothesis

• Revenues per boat If operating profit of the
  factory is positive, it can reinvest in equipment
  and processing capabilities to increase
  attractiveness and effectiveness, which could
  cause too much pressure on the fish stocks.

Revenues per boat
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Dynamic Hypothesis

• Revenues from fishing Revenues can go up and
  remain high at sufficient re-investment in the
  plant, in order to maintain diversity in input
  and output. External partners might lead to high
  volume low quality through put

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Dynamic Hypothesis

• Sustainability of Community Too much success of
  the plant, can bring some revenues, while many
  have to fish for the low-stock white fish

B2
B1
B1
R1
R2
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The Dynamic Hypotheses around the key variables
have been merged into three sectors

• Resource Sector
• Community Sector
• Operations Sector
• Variables and links in Dynamic hypotheses
  themselves, generally cover more sectors!!

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Resource Sector
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Community Sector
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Operations Sector
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We have used the Potential Factory Output
hypothesis as a starting point for the model

• The model of the hypothesis is built up of three
  main loops
• Factory Capacity and Output
• Fleet Capacity
• Resource Dynamics

Other hypotheses will be constructed on top of
this
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Basic model Behavior

• Basic Demand
• Step demand increase towards 15000 Surimi in the
  10th month
• Resource Depletion
• Same case, with a lower fertility of pelagis

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Basic Demand Factory Capacity
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Basic Demand Pelagic Throughput
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Basic Demand Resource Dynamics
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Lower Resource Fertility Resource Depletion
Dynamics can be very sensitive to resource
parameters
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Expectations and Next Steps

• Confirm to current structure and characterization
  of the model
• Agree on desired outcome of the final model
• Add complexity, i.e. more parameters and
  variables to the model
• Include the critical data to represent the
  dynamic behavior of the system
• Validate the behavior of the extended model