2006 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast and Landfall Probabilities

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2006 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Forecast and
Landfall Probabilities Phil Klotzbach Department
of Atmospheric Science Colorado State
University Northeast Hurricane Conference New
York City, NY July 19, 2006
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2006 Hurricane Predictions

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2006 FORECAST AS OF 31 MAY 2006
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31 May 2006 Predictors
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BEST ANALOG YEARS FOR 2006 (END OF MAY)
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The number of years that our tropical cyclone
forecasts issued at various lead times have
correctly predicted above- or below-average
activity for each predictand over the past seven
years (1999-2005)
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Revised 1 June Landfall Probability Forecasts

• Net Tropical Cyclone (NTC) Activity Forecast
• 500 MB Ht. and SLP Predictors

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PROBABILITIES FOR AT LEAST ONE MAJOR (CATEGORY
3-4-5) HURRICANE LANDFALL ON EACH OF THE
FOLLOWING COASTAL AREAS FOR 2006

• Entire U.S. coastline 82 (average for last
  century is 52)
• 2) U.S. East Coast including Peninsula Florida -
  69 (average for last century is 31)
• 3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle
  westward to Brownsville - 38 (average for last
  century is 30)
• 4) Expected above-average major hurricane
  landfall risk in the Caribbean

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New Landfalling Hurricane Web Application

• Currently Available at the following URL

http//www.e-transit.org/hurricane
In partnership with the GeoGraphics Laboratory
Bridgewater State College, Bridgewater MA
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Areas for which Landfall Probabilities are Issued
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REGION 2 - TEXAS LOUISIANA
H
A
J
C
L
O
C
J
V
C
(c)
(b)
(a)
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Future Work

• State-by-State Probabilities
• Gust Probabilities
• Monthly Probabilities
• User-Selected Probabilities (Daily, Weekly
  Periods)
• Potential Damage

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Questions???