What is Causing the Lower Aviation Accident/Incident Rate? Can We Correlate Improved Safety Records to the Global Safety Agenda? Cooperative Efforts Are Driving Down the Accident Rate Robert Matthews, Ph.D. FAA Office of Accident

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What is Causing the Lower Aviation
Accident/Incident Rate? Can We Correlate
Improved Safety Records to the Global Safety
Agenda? Cooperative Efforts Are Driving Down
the Accident Rate Robert Matthews, Ph.D.FAA
Office of Accident InvestigationMichael
Romanowski, Ph.D.Aerospace Industries
Association U.S./Europe International Safety
ConferencePhiladelphiaJune 7 - 11, 2004 
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Accident rates in US and Western Europe have
dropped dramatically over the years
Current accident rates are incredibly
low Challenge is to drive them lower
US Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2004
Accidents Per Million Flight Hours
Accident Rate
Fatal Accident Rate
Note 2004 is based on a pro-rata of data through
May, 2004.
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History shows new capabilities appropriately
focused actions reduce accident rate
New fleet (L-049, DC-6 B-377) Earliest ILS
(Glide slope, LOC markers) First VOR (1950),
then DME
Part 121-Type Operations 1946 To 2003
Radar introduced at selected towers Vickers-700
Turboprop (1953 in UK, 1856 US) DC-7 (1955),
Lockheed Electra Radio contact, ATC centers
cruise aircraft 1949-55
Long-Range radar (Centers) Jet Engine 707 (1958)
DC-8 VOR/DME integrated into autopilot
(precision approaches) Secondary radar
FMS Wind shear detection CRM 6-Axis simulator
FDR Cabin safety Flight envelope protection
Major Fatal Accidents Per Million Departures

RNAV (processing VOR/DME basic
Instruments) GPWS, TCAS Early automation
FOQA/ASAP programs Large-scale RJ
insertion Cooperative safety
agendas
Year
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Introduction of regional jets illustrates the
dynamic system
Regional Jets
Turboprops 34 seats
Turboprops gt 34 seats Last new order (for 10) Nov
97
US Part 121 In-service fleet EOY 2004 is
projected, based on Airclaims data through May
13, 2004.
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Focused action and new capability dramatically
reduced mid-air collisions
Number of Fatal Mid-airs
Years
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Focused action led to dramatic reduction in wind
shear accidents
Training/ Pilot Guide
Reactive Wind shear Systems
Enhancements
R
Predictive Wind shear Systems
1970
75
80
2000
90
85
95
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Cooperative efforts are bringing accident rate
down
Hull Loss Accident Rate Worldwide Commercial
Jets (gt60,000 lbs, non-CIS) Through 31 December
2002
2.00
5 year running average
1.60
1.20
Rate per million departures
0.80
0.40
0.00
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
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Fully implementing the CAST plan will lead to a
73 overall risk reduction by 2007

Hull Loss Fatal Accidents
Portion of Total Fatality Risk Mitigated by the
CAST Plan
(2007 Implementation Values)
100
Risk Eliminated
90
Risk Remaining
80
70
60
Portion of Risk
50
40
30
20
10
0
Total
Evac
CFIT
Midair
LOC Flt
Crew Inc
LOC GND
Eng-UCEF
Sys-Comp
Turbulence
Fire/Explosion
Runway Collision
CAST 1987-2000 Fatal/Hull Loss Dataset
Security events excluded.
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CAST Goals

• Reduce the U.S. commercial aviation fatal
  accident rate by 80 by 2007
• Work together with airlines, JAA, ICAO, IATA,
  FSF, IFALPA, other international organizations
  and appropriate regulatory/ government
  authorities to reduce worldwide commercial
  aviation fatal accident rate

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CAST brings key stakeholders to cooperatively
develop implement a prioritized safety agenda
Industry
Government
AIA Airbus ALPA APA ATA IFALPA NACA Boeing PW RA
A FSF

• DOD
• FAA
• Aircraft Certification
• Flight Standards
• System Safety
• Air Traffic Operations
• Research
• NASA
• ICAO
• JAA
• TCC
• NATCA
• NTSB

Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)
IATA AAPA ATAC APFA
Representing GE and RR Observer
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Commercial Aviation Safety Team (CAST)

• Data analyses

• Safety enhancement development

• Master safety plan
• Enhancement effectiveness
• Future areas of study

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Generic model for achieving long term accident
rate reduction
Training SOPs Maximize existing systems Proactive
data management
Accident Rate
Design solutions
Time
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Robust CAST Methodology

• Detailed event sequence - problem identification
  from worldwide accidents and incidents
• CVR
• DFDR
• NTSB reports, etc.
• Broad based teams (45-50 specialists/team)
• gt 800 problem statements
• 752 interventions proposed
• Packaged into 87 system enhancements
• Analyzed for effectiveness and synergy
• 47 enhancements adopted

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CAST process led to integrated strategic safety
plan

• Part 121 or equivalent passenger and cargo
  operations studied
• Current CAST plan
• 47 Prioritized Safety Enhancements
• 8 RD projects and 2 studies
• Projected 73 fatality risk reduction by 2007
• Industry and Government implementing plan
• ATA (20 operators), RAA (47), NACA (13) plus
  non-aligned (35)

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Resources vs. risk reduction highlights the need
for prioritized approach
10
100
Risk Reduction
APPROVED PLAN
9

Total Cost in (Millions)
8
75
7
6
Risk Eliminated

Resource Cost ( Billions)
50
5
2007
2020
4
3
25
2
1



0
0
All JSIT Proposed Enhancements (2020
Implementation Level)
Completed
Completed Plan (2020 Implementation Level)
Completed Plan (2007 Implementation Level)
CAST-050
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Cost Savings
Prioritized safety makes good economic sense
Part 121 Aviation Industry Cost Due to Fatal/Hull
Loss Accidents
100
Historical cost of accidents per flight cycle
80
Savings 56/Flight Cycle Or 620 Million
Dollars/Year
Dollars/Flt. Cyc
60
73 Fatality Risk Reduction
40
20
Cost of accident fatalities following
implementation of the CAST plan _at_ 2007 levels
0
2002
2007
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CAST Safety Plan

• 25 Completed Safety Enhancements
• Safety Culture
• Maintenance Procedures
• Flight Crew Training
• Air Traffic Controller Training
• Uncontained Engine Failures
• Terrain avoidance warning system (TAWS)
• Standard Operating Procedures
• Precision Approaches
• Minimum Safe Altitude Warning (MSAW) Systems
• Proactive Safety Programs (e.g., FOQA, ASAP)

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CAST Safety Plan (cont.)

• 21 Committed Safety Enhancements
• Policies and Procedures
• Aircraft Design
• Flight Crew Training (additional aspects)
• Runway Incursion Prevention
• Precision Approaches (additional projects)
• 8 RD Projects and 2 Studies

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PAI/RNP will lead to large safety efficiency
improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS CAST
initiatives

• Performance-based NAS Communication, Navigation
  Surveillance with much greater accuracy
  reliability than system has today
• Most profound change in near future
• Enable precisely defined, computer generated
  flight path
• Tightly defined envelope - unprecedented
  accuracy
• Performance requirements will vary for airspace
  and phase of flight
• more efficient use of en-route terminal
  airspace
• Increased capacity
• reduced separation
• new approaches enabled
• Time fuel savings

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PAI/RNP will lead to large safety efficiency
improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS CAST
initiatives

• CAST PAI/RNP enhancements
• Supports Performance-based NAS
• Individual safety contribution 15 reduction in
  risk for US when fully implemented
• Targets CFIT and Loss of Control type accidents
• Exploit aircrafts inherent capability Classic,
  standard or advanced aircraft
• Vertical Angles applicable to all aircraft
  regardless of technology
• Eliminate step-down approach
• Enable improved constant angle/constant rate
  approach
• Fosters stabilized approaches and descents to the
  runway
• Approved approaches established at 84 of US
  airports

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PAI/RNP will lead to large safety efficiency
improvements
Key elements of Performance-based NAS CAST
initiatives

• CAST PAI/RNP enhancements
• Three-dimensional navigational (3D RNAV)
  Standard and advanced airplanes
• Increased precision
• Minimums charting specs - to allow for improved
  stabilized descents to runways.
• Required Navigational Performance (RNP)
  Advanced airplanes
• Guidance to allow airlines to use reduced landing
  minimums on all properly-equipped airplanes
• Extension of these procedures will
• reduce the risk of an accident from impact with
  terrain while on descent
• improve the ability of airplanes to land in
  marginal conditions.
• xLS All airplanes
• Requirements for the installation of laterally-
  and vertically-guided approach paths being
  developed
• For runways currently without an Instrument
  Landing System (ILS). xLS approaches will
  provide improved safety during landing

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CAST metrics to ensure implementation and
effectiveness identify areas for additional
action
Exploiting FOQA-type data can bring powerful
system benefits
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Summary

• History shows focused action and introduction of
  new capabilities led to large accident rate
  reduction
• CAST enhancements focus a resource-effective
  strategy to maximize accident rate reduction
• Implementation well along
• 73 reduction expected by 2007
• 40-50 reduction estimated to date
• Transition to detailed data sharing will lead to
  further safety benefits
• U.S. experiencing a 78 reduction in commercial
  fatal accident rate from the 1997 baseline
• More metrics required to establish firm linkage
  between CAST program and demonstrated accident
  rate reduction
• However, circumstance suggests there is a
  correlation

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Cooperative safety agendas are flourishing around
the world
COSCAP CIS Underway
JSSI 35 SEs 5 SEs to EASA 11 complete 62
reduction
COSCAP NA, SA, SEA 9 SEs on plan 4 SEs in
review
CAST 46 SEs 25 complete 21 in work 73 reduction
ASET Underway
PAAST CFIT, ALAR RI SE-23
We encourage everyone to support these worthwhile
activities