Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce Policy September 21, 2004

1
Roberts T. Jones Education and Workforce
PolicySeptember 21, 2004
THE JOBS REVOLUTION Preparing Todays Students
for Tomorrows Jobs Illinois Superintendents
Conference
2
Expanding Global Competition,Changes in American
LaborMarkets, the Impact of Technology, and the
Demand for Higher Skills.
Have Forever Changed our Expectations of
American Education.
3
Americans Economic Perception 1945 to 2004

• American Dominance
• No Real Foreign Competition
• Unskilled Access To Jobs and Mobility
• Good Wages and Benefits
• Expectations for High Standard of Living

4
Growth in International Competition1970 Beyond

• Increased Urbanization (51 of population)
• Availability of Technology
• Financial Mobility
• Political and Economic Stability
• Education Gains

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Changing Face of the World

• CHINA CHILE POLAND US WORLD
• YOUTH 42 45 37 35
  48
• LITERACY 97.7 97.6 100 99
  85
• HIGHER ED 19.7 9.1 2.1
  2.8 2.9
• GNP 8.8 6.5 6.7 1.4
  -----
• GDP 9.7
• Higher Ed Student Enrollment in China now
  exceeds US total
• Chinas GNP projected to equal US by 2050

Source UNESCO
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College Graduates

• China 2.5 million
• India 2.3 million
• US 1.3 million

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IMPACT ON AMERICAN ECONOMY

• US Share of World Output
• Was 40 down to 21
• US Industrial Patents
• Only 52 are US PatentsLowest in History
• World Published Research
• US was 61 down to 29
• College Attendance
• US was 1st in World down to 6th

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Impact on US BUSINESS

• Impact on Business and Competition
• Continuous Growth of Quality Competitors
• Loss of Market Share
• Need to
• Increase Productivity
• Shorten Product Life Cycles
• Reduce Costs
• Need for Skilled Workers
• Need for Continuous Improvement

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Future US Labor Markets and Demographics
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Future US Labor Markets

• Demographics
• Slow Population Growth (1 plus per year)
• Slow Labor Force Growth (Less than 1 yr)
• Aging Population (Fewer Working Age)
• Growth in Minorities and Immigrant Population
• Jobs
• Job Growth expands by 1.4 per year
• Loss of Low Skilled Jobs (12 of New Jobs)
• Source Bureau of Labor Statistics

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Future US Labor Markets (continued)

• Shortages
• Demand for Skilled Labor Continues to Grow
• Labor Shortage of 7 million by 2010
• 21 million in 2020
• ? Health Care ? Technology
• ? Engineers ? Technicians
• ? Teachers ? Services
• Source US Department of Education

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Expected Labor Forceand Labor Force Demand 2002
- 2031
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MINORITY GROWTHPercent of Workforce by Ethnic
Group 2003 to 2050

• Ethnicity 2003 2010 2050
• White 73 65 53
• Hispanic 11 16 24
• Black 12 13 14
• Asian 5 7 11

Source Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor
Review May 2002, A century of
change The U.S. labor force, 1950-2050.
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INCREASED PRODUCTIVITYDRIVES CHANGES IN.

• OCCUPATIONS, JOBS, SKILLS, AND TENURE

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CHANGING JOBS

• Blurred Traditional Distinctions of Industries
  and Companies
• Job Descriptions and Functions Have Expanded
• Job Applications Have Changed
• More Responsibility
• Independence
• Teams
• Skill Sets Have Increased
• Academic
• Technical
• Soft Skill

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CHANGING JOBS

• None of the top 10 jobs in 2010 exist today.
• Former Ed. Secretary Richard Riley
• Average Person Today Will Have 10-14 careers.
• Dept of Labor
• Average Job Will Last 3-5 Years.
• Dept of Labor

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CUMULATIVE NEW JOBS BY OCCUPATION 2006-2031
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HIGH SKILLED and UNSKILLED JOBS AS A PERCENT OF
WORKFORCE 1988 TO 2008
Source Bureau of Labor Statistics
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MEDIAN YEARS OF JOB TENURE,1996 and 2000
Years of Tenure
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Premium on Education
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75 OF NEW JOB GROWTH REQUIRES SOME LEVEL OF
POST-SECONDARY TRAINING
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Employment Change by Education1992 2002
Source Employment Policy Foundation tabulations
of Bureau of Labor Statistics / Census Current
Population Survey data MTC Institute.
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UNEMPLOYMENT RATES BY EDUCATION

• Less Than High School 8.3
• High School 5.1
• Some College 4.2
• College Degree 2.75

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Average Annual Earningsby Educational Attainment
Source US Census Bureau, Current Population
Surveys, March 2002 MTC Institute
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GROWING WAGE GAP

• Income
• 1980, College Grad earned 50 more than HS Degree
• 2004, College Grad earns 100 more.
• Wage Gap Continues to Widen

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Percent of High School GraduatesAttending
College Upon Graduation, 1979 - 2010
Source US Department of Education National Center
for Education Statistics and Natural Alliance of
Business
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New Expectations of K-12 Education
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INCREASED PUBLIC FOCUS ON

• Student Achievement
• Raising the Level of Lower Half
• New Delivery Options to Reach All Students
• Improvement of Accountability, Curriculum,
  Assessments, and Teacher Quality.

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COLLEGE OR WORKREADY OR NOTThe American
Diploma Project
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CORE CURRICULUM FOR ALL STUDENTS

• 4 Years Math
• 4 Years Science
• 3 Years English
• 3 Years Social Studies
• Quality Curriculum
• Specific Achievement Standards
• ACT, ETS, ACIEVE,NCHEPP, Ed Trust, etc

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CURRENT STATUS

• Only 62 of Students Taking Core Curriculum.
• Only 35 of 8th Graders in Algebra
• Eighth Grade Achievement in Top States
• 36 Proficient in Math
• 39 Proficient in Reading
• 42 Proficient in Science
• 41 Proficient in Writing
• NCHEPP

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RESULT

• Increasing Post Secondary Enrollment
• Increasing Demand for Skilled Employees
• Increasing Premium on Education Attainment
• 53 of College Students Remediation in Math and
  English
• 60 of Employers say HS Degree not Reflective
• Employers Paying 40 Million in Remediation

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IMPACT

• Education is the Primary Key to
• Individuals
• Employability
• Employment Security
• Income
• Economy
• Competitiveness
• Innovation
• Economic Growth
• American Standard of Living

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EFFECTIVE EDUCATION HAS BECOME A RIGHTNOT
MERELY AN OPPORTUNITY.The Jobs
RevolutionChanging How America Works
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THE JOBS REVOLUTION

• GLOBAL GROWTH
• PRODUCTIVITY
• TIGHT LABOR MARKETS
• INCREASING SKILL DEMAND
• SHORTENED JOB TENURE
• CAN NOT LEGISLATE OR PROTECT
• VALUE AND INVEST IN EDUCATION