Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the Second Review

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Ready for the
Second Review

• EC-LNV, 23 June 2004
• Henk Simons - Milieu en Natuur Planbureau (MNP),
  RIVM
• Co-ordinator Responses Working Group

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Outline

• Context
• Description and Status
• Conceptual Framework
• Structure and Preliminary results of the Global
  Working Groups
• Products
• Second round review

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Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

• An international scientific assessment of the
  consequences of ecosystem changes for human
  well-being
• Modeled on the IPCC
• Providing information requested by
• Conventions (CBD, CCD, Ramsar, CMS)
• other partners including the private sector and
  civil society
• With the goals of
• stimulating and guiding action to conserve
  ecosystems and enhance their contribution to
  human well-being
• building capacity to undertake integrated
  ecosystem assessments and to act on their
  information

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Human Challenge

• Considerable progress has been made in fighting
  poverty
• life expectancy increasing
• infant mortality decreasing
• agricultural production increasing, etc.
• Major problems remain
• 1.2 billion people live on less than 1 per day
• 1 billion people do not have access to clean
  water
• More than 2 billion people have no access to
  sanitation
• 1.3 billion are breathing air below the standards
  considered acceptable by WHO
• 700 million people suffer from indoor air
  pollution due to biomass burning

Source Serageldin, 2002, Science 29654
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Growing Demand For Ecosystem Services
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What is a policy-relevant assessment?

• A social process to bring the findings of science
  to bear on the needs of decision-makers

A scientific assessment applies the judgement of
experts to existing knowledge to provide
scientifically credible answers to policy
relevant questions.
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MA Design Draws On LessonsFrom Earlier
Assessments
Key success factor from past experiences
Relevant MA design features
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Political legitimacy

• Authorized by the UN and 4 conventions CBD, CCD,
  Ramsar, CMS to provide a portion of their
  information/assessment needs
• Multi-stakeholder governance structure
  intergovernmental and non-governmental, including
  the private sector and civil society
• Modeled on IPCC procedures and structure
• Working groups and coordinating/lead authors
• North-South, regional, disciplinary, gender
  balance
• Independent review board, 2 rounds of expert and
  government review
• Policy-relevant but not policy-prescriptive
• Focus strongly shaped by audiences
• Extensive analysis of user needs
• Review of draft products against user needs
• Focus on joint needs of multiple users

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Scientific credibility
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Utility
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MA Organisation
MA Board
Review Board Chairs
Assessment PanelWorking Group Chairs
Support Functions Highly Distributed Secretariat
Outreach Engagement
Chapter Review Editors
Global Assessment Working Groups
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Timeline
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
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Current status 1st Round Review

• 1st Report (MA Conceptual Framework) completed
• 800 Authors, 85 countries
• Review Board established
• Chapters made available for review early January
  reviewers had ten weeks to submit review comments
• Reviews invited from approximately
• 750 Expert Reviewers
• 600 National Focal Points
• Focal points for the CBD, CCD, Ramsar Convention,
  CMS, and UNFCCC in 180 countries
• 15 Affiliated Scientific Organizations and
  National Academies of Sciences (ASOs)
• 6900 Review comments received from approximately
• 215 Expert reviewers
• 35 National Focal Points
• 4 ASOs
• Draft chapters being revised and available in
  June 2004 for in-depth review

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Ecosystem Services The benefits people obtain
from ecosystems

• Regulating
• Benefits obtained from regulation of ecosystem
  processes
• climate regulation
• disease regulation
• flood regulation

Provisioning Goods produced or provided by
ecosystems food fresh water fuel wood
genetic resources
Cultural Non-material benefits from ecosystems
spiritual recreational aesthetic
inspirational educational
Supporting Services necessary for production of
other ecosystem services Soil formation
Nutrient cycling Primary production
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Consequences of Ecosystem Change for Human
Well-being
Ecosystem Services
Constituents of Well-being
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Conceptual Framework
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MA Working Groups

• Condition Working Group
• What is the current condition and historical
  trends of ecosystems and their services?
• What have been the consequences of changes in
  ecosystems for human well-being?

• Scenario Working Group
• Given plausible changes in primary drivers, what
  will be the consequences for ecosystems, their
  services, and human well-being?

• Responses Working Group
• What can we do to enhance well-being and conserve
  ecosystems?

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Condition Working Group

• Introduction
• Methods, Drivers of change, Biodiversity, HWB and
  Vulnerability
• Ecosystem Services
• Analysed by major clusters of ecosystem services
• Ecosystems
• Multiple services from various systems.
• Synthesis

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Technical chapters examine current status and
trends of ecosystem services across ecosystem
types

• A) Provisioning
• Chapter 8. Freshwater
• Chapter 9. Food
• Chapter 10. Timber, Fiber, Fuel
• Chapter 11. Novel Products and Industries from
  Biodiversity
• B) Supporting and Regulating
• Chapter 12. Biodiversity regulation of ecosystem
  services
• Chapter 13. Nutrient cycling
• Chapter 14. Air quality and climate regulation
• Chapter 15. Human infectious disease agents
• Chapter 16. Waste processing and detoxification
• Chapter 17. Natural Hazard regulation
• C) Cultural
• Chapter 18. Cultural and amenity services

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Then examine the status of different ecosystems
in providing these ecosystem services

• Ch. 19 Cultivated Systems
• Ch. 20 Dryland systems
• Ch. 21 Forest systems
• Ch. 22 Urban systems
• Ch. 23 Inland Water systems
• Ch. 24 Coastal systems
• Ch. 25 Marine systems
• Ch. 26 Polar Systems
• Ch. 27 Mountain systems
• Ch. 28 Island systems

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Example questions being answered by the Condition
Working Group

• What have been the consequences of ecosystem
  degradation for human health?
• What have been the economic costs and benefits of
  changes to ecosystems?
• What have been the trends in the supply of
  services from ecosystems?
• How will current trends play out in the near
  future?
• How has the capacity of ecosystems to provide
  services changed in the recent past
• What are the trends in the capacities of
  ecosystems to continue to provide services.

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A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group

• Ecosystems and Human well-being
• Although on average human well-being has improved
  in the recent past, human populations are growing
  faster in ecosystems characterised by low
  well-being and low productivity, and there is a
  growing number of people at high risk of adverse
  ecosystem changes.
• The world is experiencing a worsening trend of
  human suffering and economic losses from natural
  disasters. The capacity of ecosystems to
  regulate such natural disasters has diminished.
• Flood damage in Europe in 2002 was higher than in
  any previous year.
• The impacts of declining ecosystem services are
  often shifted from the groups responsible for the
  decline onto others.

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A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group

• Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services
• The loss of biodiversity has lead to measurable
  reductions in aspects of human well-being.
• The composition of communities of species, rather
  than numbers of species is most important in
  determining the capacity of the system to provide
  ecosystem services.
• The integrity of interactions between species is
  critical for the preservation of long-term human
  food production on land and in the sea (e.g.
  pollination and pathogen control).
• Among plants and vertebrates, the great majority
  of species are declining in distribution,
  population size, or both. We are not likely to
  meet the CBD 2010 target.
• Overfishing is the dominant factor reducing
  marine biodiversity.
• Most terrestrial extinctions are predicted to
  occur in tropical forests.

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A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group

• Ecosystem services
• There is a slower rate of growth of water use,
  although global per capita water availability is
  falling. Water withdrawal is currently about 10
  of global continental runoff.
• The growth of world cereal production has slowed
  recently, and the supply of fish as a cheap
  source of protein for developing countries has
  declined. There is an accelerating demand for
  livestock products.
• Global consumption of fuelwood peaked in the
  1990s, and is now declining, due to the
  availability of alternative fuel sources.
• Terrestrial ecosystems were a sink for a third of
  historical CO2 emissions and a fifth of 1990s
  emissions. The sink was partially due to
  afforestation/reforestation in Europe and other
  regions.

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A selection of DRAFT findings from the Condition
Working Group

• Ecosystems
• Societies in coastal systems are increasingly
  impacted by fisheries failures in coastal and
  marine systems, exacerbated by pollution and
  development.
• Islands are all coast, and are especially
  vulnerable
• Climate change is having a real impact on polar
  systems
• But there is a high coping capacity in Polar
  countries, and so the vulnerability of Polar
  societies is low.
• The capacity of wetlands to deliver services is
  deteriorating around the world, and is worse than
  any other system type.
• In Europe, the negative impacts of urban
  settlements on ecosystem services and human
  well-being has become more delayed and dispersed.

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Main areas of forest degradation, 1980-2000
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Population density and most populated and
changing cities in 1990-2000
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Main areas of change in cropland extent
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Scenario Working Group
What are the consequences for ecosystem services
and human well-being of alternative worlds in
which different approaches to sustainability are
emphasized?
Scenarios W.G. 29 Apr 04
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Approach to quantifying the MA scenarios
Storylines Global Orchestration, Techno-garden,
etc.
Model Outputs Provisioning Services - Food
(meat, fish, grain production) - Fiber (timber) -
Freshwater (renewable water resources
withdrawals) - Fuel wood (biofuels) Regulating -
Climate regulation (C flux) - Air quality (NOx,
S emissions) Supporting primary production
Links to human wellbeing
AIM Global change
WaterGAP World water resources
IMAGE 2 Global change
Model Inputs Demographic Economic
Bio-physical Technological
IMPACT World food production
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Chapters of Scenarios Assessment Report

• Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)
• Chapter 1 Summary of MA Conceptual Framework
• Chapter 2 Global scenarios in Historic
  Perspective
• Chapter 3 Why is it important to include
  Ecology in Global Scenarios
• Chapter 4 State of the Art in Describing
  Future Changes in Ecosystems
• Chapter 5 Scenarios for Ecosystem Services
  Rationale and Overview
• Chapter 6 Methodology for Developing the MA
  Scenarios
• Chapter 7 Drivers of Change in Ecosystem
  Conditions and Services
• Chapter 8 Four Scenarios
• Chapter 9 Changes in Ecosystem Services and
  their Drivers
• Chapter 10 Biodiversity Across Scenarios
• Chapter 11 Human Wellbeing Across Scenarios
• Chapter 12 Synergies and Trade-offs among
  Ecosystem Services
• Chapter 13 Synthesis Lessons Learned
• Chapter 14 Synthesis Policy Implications

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Scenarios Answers to Frequently-Asked Questions
The probability is small of any one scenario is
the real future
The future will be a mix of approaches and
consequences described in the scenarios, plus
events and innovations that have not been
imagined at the time of writing.
None of the scenarios is business as usual,
though all scenarios have elements of the world
as it exists today.
None of the scenarios is a best path or worst
path. Significantly better or worse outcomes
could be developed using different mixes of the
policies and practices addressed in the scenarios.
The scenarios are a menu of choices and their
conse-quences. Readers may use this menu to
consider their priorities, preferences and
choices.
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Scenarios Selected Draft Headlines
Demand for provisioning services (food, fiber,
water, etc.) increases in all scenarios. This
increases stress on the ecosystems that provide
these services.
By 2050, 10 to 20 of current grassland and
forest land will be lost, mostly due to expansion
of agriculture.
By 2050, water stress increases in arid regions
of Africa and Asia. The number of people living
in water-stressed areas increases 200 to 300.
Globally, the volume of polluted fresh water
increases. Water availability declines, mostly
due to changes in climate and water withdrawal.
Ecosystems currently sequester CO2, but the
future of this service is in doubt. The CO2 sink
decreases in the Order from Strength scenario
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Scenarios Selected Draft Headlines
Diversity (vascular plants) declines in all
scenarios (most in Order from Strength, least in
TechnoGarden and Adapting Mosaic). Greatest
losses in warm mixed forest, savanna, scrub,
tropical forest woodland.
Fish populations are lost due to declining water
availability. Differences among scenarios are
minor. Most losses of fishes occur in poor
tropical and subtropical countries.
Our ability to reduce the rate of loss of
species populations by 2010 is in doubt. Two
scenarios (Order from Strength and Global
Orchestration) fail to meet the target. The other
two may, at best, barely meet the target.
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Responses Working Group

• Part I Conceptual Framework for Evaluating
  Responses
• Typology of reponses (legal, institutional,
  economic, technical, ecological)
• Methodologies to assess responses
• Uncertainties in the effectiveness of responses
• Part II Assessment of Past and Current
  Responses
• Biodiversity
• Food, fiber, fresh water, fuel
• Nutrients, waste, climate
• Cultural services
• Integrated responses
• Part III Synthesis Ingredients for successful
  responses
• Poverty reduction
• Health
• Choosing responses
• Millennium Development Goals

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Responses WG definition
Responses are defined as the whole range of human
actions, including policies, strategies, and
interventions to address specific issues, needs,
opportunities or problems
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Chapters of Responses Assessment Report

• Summary for Decision Makers (SDM)
• Chapter 1 Summary of MA Conceptual Framework
• Chapter 2 Typology of Responses
• Chapter 3 Assessing Responses
• Chapter 4 Recognizing Uncertainties in
  Evaluating Responses
• Chapter 5 Biodiversity
• Chapter 6 Food and cultivated systems
• Chapter 7 Water
• Chapter 8 Wood, Fuel wood and Non Wood Forest
  Products
• Chapter 9 Nutrient Management
• Chapter 10 Waste Management, Processing and
  Detoxification
• Chapter 11 Flood and Storm Control
• Chapter 12 Ecosystems and Vector Borne Disease
  Control
• Chapter 13 Responses to Climate Change
• Chapter 14 Cultural Services
• Chapter 15 Integrated Responses
• Chapter 16 Consequences and Options for Human
  Health
• Chapter 17 Consequences of Responses for poverty
  reduction, Ecosystem services and human
  wellbeing
• Chapter 18 Choosing Responses

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Some Preliminary Messages

• Water Significant opportunities to avoid future
  water crises exist in areas of improved design
  and management of water infrastructure, more
  inclusive and integrated governance and more
  efficient resource allocation through market
  based approaches
• Forests Strategies to improve the impact of
  forest product use on ecosystem health and human
  well being are more affected by decisions taken
  outside the forest sector than those within it.
• People and Ecosystems Policies and Economic
  Incentives concerning management systems and
  conservation strategies that separate people from
  their environment, freezing both cultures and
  ecosystems have limited success
• Key challenges in the development of effective
  response strategies arises out of limited
  knowledge on the complexity and variability of
  site-specific factors, which determine outcomes
  and costs

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A further insight

• Integrated responses (IR) are gaining in
  importance in both developing and developed
  countries but they have had mixed results.
• IR are responses that address degradation of
  ecosystem services across a number of systems
  simultaneously, or that also explicitly include
  objectives to enhance human well-being. IR occur
  at different scales and across scales, and use a
  range of instruments for implementation.
  Increasingly they are associated with the
  application of multi-stakeholder processes and
  with decentralization, and they may include
  actors and institutions from government, civil
  society and private sector.
• Examples include some multi-lateral environmental
  agreements, environmental policy integration
  within national governments, and multi-sectoral
  approaches such as Integrated Coastal Zone
  Management.
• Although many IR make ambitious claims about
  their likely benefits, in practice the results of
  implementation have been mixed in terms of
  ecological, social and economic impacts.

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Assessment Outputs Global

• 2003
• Ecosystems and Human Well-being A Framework for
  Assessment
• MA Data Catalog
• Datasets being used in the MA
• 2004
• Edited volume of conference paper Bridging
  Scales and Epistemologies in Multi-scale
  Assessments
• 2005
• Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.)
  and Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs)
• Sub-global Assessment
• Condition/Trends Assessment
• Scenario Assessment
• Response Options Assessment
• Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

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Assessment Outputs Global

• 2005 (cont)
• Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)
• Overarching Synthesis
• Biodiversity (CBD)
• Desertification (CCD)
• Wetlands (Ramsar)
• Private Sector
• Health and Ecosystems (tentative)
• Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)
• Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.)
• Other Products
• Reports available over internet (multiple
  language for summary docs)
• Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration
  capability
• Partnerships for expanded outreach radio,
  theatre, documentaries, film (tentative)
• Partnerships for capacity-building/training
  outreach (tentative)

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Major (expected) achievements of MA

• Sound baseline information on ecosystems, human
  well-being and their linkages
• New concepts, approaches, methodology
• Networking among scientists and institutions
• Support to Integrated Ecosystem Assessments at
  various levels (local to regional/global)
• Ultimately and most importantly, support to
  policy development and implementation by various
  audiences (Conventions, National and local
  Governments, Private sector)

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MA Review Process
Jan 8
Mar 19
June
August
First round of Government and Expert Review
Second round of Government and Expert Review
Release of Findings
2004
2005
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Comments from 1st review (1)

• Important dimensions that need strenthening
• Link to human wellbeing and poverty reduction
• Valuation, including non-economic valuation
• Generally, not enough on the economic side
• Gender analysis largely missing
• Trends and indicators not evident
• Distinction between trends and thresholds
  (important for decision making)
• Thresholds and inertia

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Comments from 1st review (2)

• Stronger reference to user needs
• From review to policy relevant assessment
• Style of writing/length of some chapters
• Too theoretical, presentation, weigh and balance
• Longwinded, difficult to extract main points
• More clearly need to facilitate the executive
  summaries
• Tone prescriptive, defeatist, advocacy

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Rerview page on MA Internet http//www.millenn
iumassessment.org/en/products.chapters.aspx
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Government review organised through CBD National
Focal PointsFor Netherlands Annemarie van der
HeijdenDirectoraat voor Europese
SamenwerkingDGESemail annemarie-vander.heijde
n_at_minbuza.nlDetails on review process by
Netherlands Government will follow