GIS based Spatial Modelling and Geo-simulation for Managing Sustainable Urban Growth

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GIS based Spatial Modelling and Geo-simulation
for Managing Sustainable Urban Growth
Dr Yan Liu Centre for Spatial Environmental
Research and School of Geography, Planning and
Environmental Management
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Overview

• GIS and urban modelling
• Simulation of sustainable urban growth scenarios
• Applications Sydney, Gold Coast and Shanghai
• Other GIS applications

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GIS Geographical Information System/Science

• GIS ? a technology for the capture, storage,
  retrieval, analysis, display and presentation of
  geographical data from the real world
• an important tool for business intelligence and
  decision support

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GIS based urban growth simulation using cellular
automata method

• a discrete dynamic system ???????
• space is divided into regular spatial cells and
  time progresses in discrete steps
• each cell in the system has one of a finite
  number of states
• the state of a cell at a given time depends on
  its own state and the states of its nearby
  neighbors at the previous time step through a set
  of transition rules

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Conways Game of Life

• Survival a live cell with two or three live
  neighbours survives into the next generation

Death a live cell with less than two or more
than three live neighbours dies either of
isolation or of overcrowding
Birth a dead cell with three live neighbours
will become alive at next generation
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A simple urban simulation model of development
(1)

• IF there are three or more developed cells in
  the Moore Neighborhood of a cell
• THEN the cell will be developed.

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A simple urban simulation model of development
(2)

• IF there are one or two developed cells in
  the Moore Neighborhood of a cell, and there is a
  road running through this cell
• THEN the cell will be developed.

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A simple urban simulation model of development
(3)

• IF a river crosses a cell
• THEN no development will happen to that cell

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Primary transition rules

• Primary rules an ideal situation where
  development is only controlled by the state of
  the cell itself and the state of cells of its
  neighbourhood
• e.g.
• IF a cell is in a partly urban state with
  strong propensity to further development,
• AND the cells in the neighbourhood are developed
  to a higher state than the cell in question,
• THEN the cell will develop at a medium speed

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Secondary transition rules

• topography
• urban infrastructure
• Transportation
• socio-economic status
• planning
• human decision-making

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Application Sydney
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Application Gold Coast
Actual and simulated urban patterns of Gold Coast
in 1996 and 2006. Middle actual urban pattern in
1996 Left actual urban pattern in 2006 Right
simulated result from the model
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Projected urban growth scenarios in 2016
a) Compact smart growth, b) Planned eco-growth,
and c) Unconstrained natural growth
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Application Shanghai
b) Urban distribution classified from satellite
imagery (2006)
c) Simulated urban distribution from the AGA-CA
model (2006)
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Conclusions

• GIS based urban modelling is useful for
  understanding urban growth dynamics
• It can also be applied to generate what-if
  scenarios for urban planning and management
• Applications of the model demonstrates both its
  effectiveness and re-applicability of the
  technique
• GIS technique is a good tool for spatially
  explicit analysis of urban and other
  socio-economic phenomena