Title: Advances in Flood Risk Management Science - Improved short term rainfall and urban flood prediction
1Advances in Flood Risk Management Science-
Improved short term rainfall and urban flood
prediction
- Prof. Cedo Maksimovic
- Nuno Simões, Li-Pen Wang, Susana Ochoa
- The Royal Society, London, 5th September 2011
2Contents
- Urban flood modelling
- Dual-drainage models
- Radar-based integrated rainfall forecasting
- Methodology and key techniques
- UK case study Cranbrook catchment, Redbridge
- Rainbgauge-only-based spatial-temporal rainfall
prediction - Methodology and key techniques
- Portugal cast study Coimbra
- Remarks
3Urban flood modelling
- Focus on estimating fast and reliable flood
distributions over the target urban areas
41D/2D, 1D/1D and Hybrid models
5Interaction between 1D Overland Network and 2D
Overland Network
6 7Simulation time
Event Model hhmmss vs 1D1D vs hybrid
300 min 30 yr 1D1D 000146
300 min 30 yr Hybrid 000431 156
300 min 30 yr 1D2D 004523 2469 905
300 min 100 yr 1D1D 000211
300 min 100 yr Hybrid 000520 144
300 min 100 yr 1D2D 011110 3160 1234
300 min 200yr 1D1D 000440
300 min 200yr Hybrid 000549 25
300 min 200yr 1D2D 011605 1530 1208
8Radar-based integrated rainfall forecasting
- Integrate state-of-the-art rainfall forecasting
and modelling techniques to produce reliable
rainfall forecasts as inputs for urban pluvial
flood modelling/forecasting
9Radar-based integrated rainfall prediction
10Cranbrook catchment, London, UK
The drainage area of the Cranbrook catchment is
approximately 910 hectares the main water course
is about 5.75 km long, of which 5.69 km are piped
or culverted.
11Uncertainties of using rainfall nowcasts over
different spatial and temporal scales for event
2010/08/22-23.
12Uncertainties of applying downscaled rainfall
inputs to hydraulic modelling for event
2010/08/22-23.
13Raingauge-only-based spatial-temporal rainfall
prediction
- Combine local point rainfall information with
interpolation techniques to provide reliable
rainfall forecasts as inputs for urban pluvial
flood modelling/forecasting
14Raingauge-only-based rainfall prediction Time
series prediction interpolation techniques
15Example in Coimbra, Portugal
16Time series prediction (in 5 minutes) ability to
generate extreme values
17SSA SVM time series prediction plus IDW
interpolation techniques
17h25m
17h30m
17h35m
Prediction of water levels 30 minutes in advance
18Remarks
- Radar-based integrated rainfall prediction can
effectively reflect larger scale weather
variation to local scales, but - Accuracy Data combination techniques
- Resolution Super-resolution radar images /
rainfall information - Raingauge-only spatial-temporal rainfall
prediction exhibits promising predictability, but - Lead time Improved time series prediction models
- Spatial variability Interpolation techniques
- Hybrid dual-drainage modelling may be the
solution to providing fast and reliable flood
prediction, but - Flood prone areas flood map generation
- Calibration Coupled with image processing
techniques
Remaining issues Prospective work
to address remaining issues