Theater Security Cooperation (TSC) Planning (TSCP) (excerpt from PCAS presentation July 11, 2005) Nazli Choucri1, Stuart E. Madnick2, Michael D. Siegel3 1 Political Science Department 2 Sloan School of Management

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Theater Security Cooperation (TSC)
Planning(TSCP)(excerpt from PCAS presentation
July 11, 2005)Nazli Choucri1, Stuart E.
Madnick2, Michael D. Siegel31 Political Science
Department2 Sloan School of Management School
of Engineering3 Sloan School of Management
nchoucri, smadnick, msiegel _at_ mit.edu
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What is TSC?

• Those activities Combatant Commanders conduct
  with foreign allies and friends to
• Build defense relationships that promote specific
  US strategic interests
• Develop allied and friendly capabilities for
  self-defense and coalition operations, including
  allied transformation
• Improve information exchange and intelligence
  sharing to help harmonize views on security
  challenges
• Provide US forces with peacetime and contingency
  access and en route infrastructure

Theater Security Cooperation Source OSD
Security Cooperation Guidance Coordination Draft
, July 26, 2004
UNCLASSIFIED
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Possible uses of System Dynamics in TSC

• Dynamics of the TSC planning process
• Build defense relationships to improve
  interoperability to improve
• Learning, building trust, working together
• Develop allied and friendly capabilities by
  improving their allocation of resources for
• Training troops
• Assignment of officers
• Intelligence gathering
• Combine dynamics and political stability to
  assist planning (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)

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TSCP Dynamics - Causal Diagram
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Dynamic Interdependent Behavior of Planning
Activities
Planning B
Planning X
Planning A
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Value of Studying the Dynamics of the TSCP
Planning Process - Examples

• Software project dynamics an integrated
  approach Tarek Abdel-Hamid Stuart Madnick
• Complexity and Tradeoffs in Planning Large-Scale
  Software Projects, especially government systems
• Strategic management of complex projects a case
  study using system dynamics - James M. Lyneis -
  Case study of the Peace Shield Air Defense System
  
• Modeling intergovernmental cooperation A system
  dynamics approach - Laura Black - Model of
  collaboration, trust building, and knowledge
  sharing in a complex, intergovernmental
  information system project.

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Build defense relationships to improve
interoperability

• Joint exercises are an important tool for
• Building defense relations
• Improving interoperability

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But much more is going on
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Develop Allied and Friendly Capabilities

• Better understanding of implications of
  allocation of resources for
• Training activities
• Military Leadership
• Intelligence sharing

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Officer Allocation Policy

• Allocation policy has resulted in unequal
  distribution of officer talent between North and
  South.
• Officer talent in the South can affect the mix of
  anti-insurgency activities.
• Short-term solutions respond to violence and
  insurgency.
• Long-term solutions build trust with local
  communities (example Marine Corps Combined
  Action Program).

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Officer Quality Policy
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Officer Allocation Policy

• Officer allocation can skew mix toward short-term
  solutions at the expense of a long-term optimal
  mix.
• Trust and relations suffer, so violence is more
  likely.
• Despite continued increases in troops, frequency
  of violence chronically increases.
• Unintended consequences of the allocation
  policy exacerbate the problem.

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Disaggregating TSCP Activities Combine dynamics
and political stability (ISX-EL-Sentia-MIT TIE)
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Disaggregating TSCP Activities- Zoom in example
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