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MDG1 food security critical challenges
Andrew Dorward School of Oriental and African
Studies, University of London Leverhulme Centre
for Integrative Research on Agriculture
Health Andrew.Dorward_at_soas.ac.uk
International Parliamentary Conference on the
MDGs 30th November 2011
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Outline

• MDG1 elements progress
• Agriculture, food security inclusive growth
• Current challenges
• Action

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The MDG1 targets

• TARGET 1.A
• Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of
  people whose income is less than 1 a day
• TARGET 1.B
• Achieve full and productive employment and decent
  work for all, including women and young people
• TARGET 1.C
• Halve, between 1990 and 2015, the proportion of
  people who suffer from hunger

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People living on less than 1.25 1990, 2005
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Under-5 children underweight 1990, 2009
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Agriculture, food security inclusive
growthcontext

• Stages of development growth
• Importance of food in expenditure ( earnings) of
  poor countries poor people
• Importance of land, labour capital in poor
  countries poor people economies
• Importance of food production in using land
  labour
• Importance of food deficit farmers?
• Nature of growth
• land productivity labour demand, in tradables
  staples
• Cross sectoral linkages
• Agricultural potential
• Other opportunities minerals trade (coastal
  countries)

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Agriculture, food security inclusive
growthprocesses special contributions

• Increased productivity of national poor
  peoples labour
• Increased productivity of national poor
  peoples land
• Higher incomes farmers farm labourers
• Cheaper food for the urban rural poor raises
  their real incomes
• Stimulus for demand for local goods services
• Surplus capital labour for other sectors
• Exports import substitution
• Livestock horticulture supply demand growth
• Nutrition health benefits

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International grain price indices, 2005-2011
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A system tightened too far?Steve Wiggins (2009)
Peak kg/cap
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International commodity price indices, 2005-2011
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Price effects undernourishment
Asia
Africa
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Country resiliences to rising food prices
National / household food sellers and/or rising
non-food incomes
National / household food buyers
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Causes of the current spikes
Weather shocks
Oil prices
Waste etc.
Volatility price spikes
Biofuels
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Actions

• Address global constraints on food production
• investment in research, improved efficiency,
  reduce reliance on fossil fuels, integrated soil
  fertility management, water management, climate
  change mitigation adaptation, biofuels
  policies, speculation?
• Specific country vulnerable group measures to
  improve food productivity
• research, roads, extension, input output
  markets, ?input subsidies (be careful!), cross
  sectoral links, land policies, integrated soil
  fertility management, water
• hungry gap measures
• Specific country vulnerable group measures to
  improve affordable food access
• Transparent predictable trade policies safety
  nets insurance?, market early warning
  information
• Monitor real incomes for vulnerable groups
  seasonal wage to food price ratio

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Questions?

• Examples of problems?
• Examples of successful unsuccessful responses?
• Lessons?

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Sources

• UN (2011) The Millennium Development Goals Report
  Statistical Annex.
• IFPRI, Concern Worldwide and Welthungerhilfe.
  2011 Global Hunger Index - The Challenge of
  Hunger Taming Price Spikes and Excessive Food
  Price Volatility
• FAO (2011) The State of Food Insecurity in the
  World, 2011. How does international price
  volatility affect domestic economies and food
  security?
• World Bank Prospects Commodity Markets
  http//go.worldbank.org/4ROCCIEQ50

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Hunger Food deficit farmers Land
Earlier(?) Positive feedbacks Capital,
Technology, Knowledge, Health? Poverty reduction,
Globalisation?
INDUSTRIAL, SERVICE, KNOWLEDGE REVOLUT-IONS
releasing labour for production of other goods
services
Later (?) Negative feedbacks Natural resource
use, Waste, Environmental degradation,
Biodiversity loss, Health? Inequity? ?
Globalisation?
falling other prices relative to wages/income,
increased income available for purchase of goods
services
higher labour productivity, other goods services
increased / constant per capita other
availability
Energy, materials, capital, technology,
knowledge, institutions
Coordination processes, scale, locations,
populations, timing