Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and Environmental Modeling Alan Borning, University of Washington Mark Simonson, Puget Sound Regional Council

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Integrated Land Use, Transportation, and
Environmental Modeling Alan Borning, University
of WashingtonMark Simonson, Puget Sound Regional
Council
NSF Digital Government Case Study UrbanSim
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Using Models in Urban Planning

• Integrated land use and transportation models can
  provide an important tool for exploring policy
  alternatives and possible urban futures
• What if ?
• We built a new freeway or rail line?
• We changed zoning or established an urban growth
  boundary?
• We changed the tax structure?
• What are the impacts on traffic congestion, open
  space, housing affordability, resource
  consumption, emissions, ?

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UrbanSim Input Data Integration Process
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150 Meter Grid Cells
150 square meter grid cells
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UrbanSim - Interacting Component Models
Macroeconomy
Households
Jobs
Housing
Nonresidential Buildings
Development Regulations
Transportation Accessibility
Travel Model
Land
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Example simulation output Map-based indicator
display
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Software Development Methodology

• We use a version of an agile software development
  process
• Developers 2 PhD-level software engineers,
  computer science grads undergrads
• Architecture designed to make it easy to
  experiment with different component models, add
  new models
• Test-first development, extensive battery of
  tests
• Mostly Java currently increasing use of Python
• Software is Open Source (GPL)

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Tests, Tests, and More Tests

• 300 Unit Tests using JUnit
• 12 Acceptance Tests using FIT (literate tests,
  readable by modelers)

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Applying UrbanSim in Puget Sound

• Puget Sound Regional Council
• The transportation, economic and growth planning
  agency for the central Puget Sound region of
  Washington State
• Some challenges for PSRC and the region (among
  others)
• Transportation (e.g. traffic congestion, aging
  infrastructure, public transportation)
• Very hard to find additional funding due to a
  series of ballot initiatives and voter opposition
  to any tax increase
• Achieving goals of state Growth Management Act,
  such as preventing sprawl and loss of open space
• Housing affordability, other equity concerns
• Environmental issues salmon, water quality, air
  quality, resource consumption

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PSRC and Forecasts

• History of preparing regional and sub-regional
  demographic forecasts
• Federal and State obligations to maintain travel
  demand forecast capability
• Use of DRAM/EMPAL models to produce regular Small
  Area Forecasts
• Improving land use modeling is a priority
• Direct response to comments heard during update
  of transportation plan, Destination 2030
• Better representation of land use plans and data
• Able to test policy what if scenarios
• Expanded geographical reporting ability

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UW/PSRC Collaboration

• Active, ongoing University of Washington/PSRC
  partnership to extend and apply UrbanSim to the
  region
• Major activities
• Last year data collection, preparation,
  assessment
• Current sensitivity analysis (experimenting with
  5 alternate scenarios that test the systems
  response to major policy changes)
• Spring 2005 use with realistic policy scenarios
• Summer 2005 use in first major policy
  application (update of VISION 2020, the regions
  adopted growth and transportation strategy)
• Extensive involvement of PSRC staff, Regional
  Technical Forum, and others

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UrbanSim Project - Future Directions

• Additional ecological models
• More direct support for public access and
  deliberation
• A platform for open-source collaboration among
  modelers?

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Ecological Models

• Claim for modeling the impact of urban areas on
  the environment, a behaviorally-based model of
  human activity is essential
• Current ecological models in UrbanSim
• amount and spatial distribution of open space
• Land cover change (done for King County)
• Planned or likely
• Integration with EPA Air Quality model
• Water demand model
• Other strong candidates
• Greenhouse gas emissions
• Energy consumption
• Salmon

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More Direct Support for Public Access and
Deliberation

• Three interrelated projects
• Indicator Browser
• Ready-to-hand documentation
• Live documentation test-on-demand
• Dynamic output
• Indicator Perspectives
• Organizations with widely differing views on land
  use, transportation, and the environment analyze
  and comment on indicators and scenarios
• U-Build-It
• Giving direct access to the simulation to
  citizens and elected officials

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A Platform for Open-Source Collaboration among
Modelers?

• Developing UrbanSim user community
• Application in Salt Lake City, Eugene, Honolulu,
  Houston, Phoenix, Tel Aviv, Paris, and elsewhere
• First UrbanSim Workshop in San Antonio in January
• Please ask Charlie Schweik for a copy of his
  paper Open Source and Open Content A Framework
  for Global Collaboration in Social-Ecological
  Research