Dropout Early Warning Prevention System for all Students Using Data Tools and Other Strategies

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Dropout Early Warning Prevention System for all
Students Using Data Tools and Other Strategies

• Gregg Curtis, PhD
• Education Consultant School Counseling
• WI Department of Public Instruction

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Topics

• What data system did we have and what are we
  currently using?
• Dropout Early Warning System (DEWS) and Students
• Questions?

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SPP Indicator 2
Year Target State Rate Students with Disabilities State Rate Students without Disabilities
2011-2012 At or below 2.19 1.96 1.27
2010-2011 At or below 2.29 2.46 1.29
2009-2010 At or below 2.39 1.70 for Grade PK-12 Districts.44 for UHS Districts 1.42
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For the Public
FROM WINNS
TO WISEdash Public Portal
Welcome to WINSS!
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WISEDASH

• Other DPI Resources

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WISEdash for Districts

• Goal Increase Access to Data
• Outcome Data-Based Decision-Making

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WISEdash portals

• WISEdash for Districts
• http//wise.dpi.wi.gov/wise_dashhome

• WISEdash Public Portal
• http//wisedash.dpi.wi.govDashboard/portalHome.jsp

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Data in WISEdash

• Enrollment and Attendance
• Assessments (WSAS, ACT, AP, ACCESS)
• Student Growth Percentiles
• High School Completion
• Postsecondary Enrollment
• Student Profile
• Student Search

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http//www.youtube.com/watch?vPCwJX6N7zCkfeature
youtube
WISEdash for Districts Introductory Video
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All information on how to get access is
documented here
http//wise.dpi.wi.gov/wise_securehomeinfo
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What is an Early Warning System?

• Early Warning Systems (EWS) use readily
  available school data to identify students who
  are at risk of dropping out , allowing educators
  to intervene early.
• Schools can use information from an early
  warning system to support students who are at
  risk of dropping out with both school-wide
  strategies and targeted interventions.
• DEWS
• National High School Center EWS High School
  Tool
• National High School Center EWS Middle Grades
  Tool

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What is a Dropout?

• A dropout for the reported school term
• is a student who was enrolled in school at some
  time during that school term,
• was not enrolled at the beginning of the next
  school term (third Friday in September),
• has not completed high school and
• does not meet any of the following exclusionary
  conditions
• transfers to another public school district,
  private school, or state or district approved
  educational program or
• is temporary absence due to expulsion,
  suspension or school-approved illness or death.
• A dropout in any given school year may or may not
  re-enter school in a later school year.

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Dropout Early Warning System

• DEWS
• Is dependent on the data available, the factors
  included in the model can change, as will their
  weight in predicting the outcomes
• Is flexible, so it can expand as more
  longitudinal data is available on cohorts
• Currently uses these factors
• Assessments Attendance Mobility
• Discipline (school of attendance)

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DEWS Video Link and Resources

• DEWS Website
• http//wise.dpi.wi.gov/wise_dashdews
• DEWS Fact Sheet
• dpi.wi.gov/sites/default/files/imce/wise/pdf/dews-
  fact-sheet.pdf
• DEWS Checklist
• http//dpi.wi.gov/sites/default/files/imce/wise/pd
  f/dews-checklist.pdf

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DEWS Video Link and Resources (cont.)

• Action Guide Resource
• http//dpi.wi.gov/sites/default/files/imce/wise/pd
  f/wi-dews-actionguide.pdf
• Video Tutorial
• http//youtube/4C2F8zhHV8w

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What Does the DEWS Middle School Report Look
Like?
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What do the Student Profile DEWS Outcomes and
Scores Look Like?
DEWS Outcome (Score) Low, Moderate, High or Unknown plus a number score from 0-100.
DEWS Mobility Low, Moderate, High or Missing (0 100)
DEWS Discipline Low, Moderate, High or Missing (0 100)
DEWS Attendance Low, Moderate, High or Missing (0 100)
DEWS Assessments Low, Moderate, High or Missing (0 100)
DEWS Outcome Date Date that the DEWS Outcome Score was determined
KEY Supplement this information with more recent
local data
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DEWS Risk Levels for Domains
DOMAIN High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk
Attendance 21 days absent in prior year 13 to 20 days absent in prior year Less than 13 days absent in prior year
Discipline 3 days suspended/expelled in prior year 0.5 to 3 days suspended/expelled in prior year 0 days suspended or expelled in prior year
Mobility 2 moves in prior year (school or district) 1 move in prior year (school or district) 0 moves in prior year
Assessments Combined reading and math score within 1 standard deviation of High Overall Risk students Combined reading and math score within 1 standard deviation of Moderate Overall Risk students Combined reading and math score within 1 standard deviation of Low Overall Risk students
Combined reading and math score thresholds for
DEWS on p.13 of guide
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DEWS Risk Levels for Assessments (Combined Math
and Reading)
Grade Assessed DEWS Grade High Risk Moderate Risk Low Risk
6 7 lt956 956-999 gt999
7 8 lt998 998-1035 gt1035
8 9 lt1016 1016-1053 gt1054
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Why dont some students have scores?

• Students must have been enrolled in a Wisconsin
  public school in the previous school year
• Students must have taken the WKCE and received a
  score
• Students must currently be enrolled in a
  Wisconsin public school for the data to be
  displayed
• ANY STUDENT WITHOUT A SCORE should be reviewed
  and a support system developed.

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Students in Alternate Curriculum

• Students are considered at-risk if unable to
  calculate a DEWS score
• Assessment will indicate Unknown
• All students who take the WAA-SwD will
  automatically have an Unknown DEWS score
  because the system currently is unable to
  incorporate scores from the WAA-SwD looks like
  they didnt take the WKCE.

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THINK ABOUT

• After being given the program detail of DEWS
• discuss with your neighbor
• Who would be the important individuals you would
  want trained?
• How would the DEWS data be a valuable resource
  for districts you are working with?
• How would you encourage the DEWS process to
  develop?
• What materials would you insist should be
  included?

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How Could You Use DEWS With All Students?

• Print out the Student Profile
• Examine the DEWS Outcome Score check to see if
  any of the sub scores are in the Moderate to High
  level
• Supplement with more recent, local data
• Be sure that the DEWS Outcome Date is current
• With a team develop a plan of support
• If a SWD, record information in the Present
  Levels section of the IEP.

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DEWS in a Multi-Level System of Support (MLSS or
RtI)
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DEWS Process
LOCAL KNOWLEDGE
STATE DATA
Teacher / program context Parent input Special
circumstances CONTEXT
Assessments
Demographics
Intervention Strategies
Attendance
Disciplinary Events
Mobility
Location
Student Risk Identification
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Local Data for Updating DEWS Scores
Domain Data Element Indicators from Current Year
Attendance Excused Consider lt4 days in last 9 weeks as low risk
Unexcused Consider lt2 days in last 9 weeks as low risk
Tardies Considerlt5 as low risk
Discipline Suspensions Consider 0 as low risk
Expulsions Consider 0 ask low risk
Office Referrals Consider 0 as low risk
Mobility School Moves Consider 0 as low risk
District Moves Consider 0 as low risk
WKCE/Assessments/ Academics Grades Consider 0 failures as low risk
Benchmark Assessments Consider low risk to be percentile rank above the 65th
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Combining DEWS and Local Data
Indicator Area Data from DPI Risk Level (DPI) Current Data Improved? Other Considerations
Attendance 5.6 days absent Low 3 excused absences 0 unexcused absences 1 tardy Yes Number, reasons (e.g., health issues and nursing records), patterns
Discipline 0 days discipline Low 1 suspension day 0 expulsion days 5 office referrals No Number, reasons, behavioral issues
Mobility 0 district moves Low 0 district moves 1 school move 2 class changes No Number, transition challenges
WKCE/ Assessments/Academics 445 Read 512 Math Moderate Benchmark percentile 65th Grades 0 course failures Yes Number of course failures or Ds, reasons
Overall 77.2 5.2 Moderate Updated determination
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REMEMBER

• It is very important to use up-to-date data and
  compare the DEWS results to local data.

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The Review Process
Open Student Roster
Compare to Local Risk Assessment
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Middle School EWS Tool Indicators Thresholds
Indicator Time Frame Benchmark (Flag)
Attendance First 20 or 30 days, each grading period, end of year (annual) Missing 20 or more of instructional time
Incoming Indicators Locally validated indicators collected prior to the start of the first grading period (either before middle grades or taken from the previous middle grades year data) Locally determined as flagged or not flagged
Exam Indicator Locally validated exam (i.e., state or local assessment) indicator. Time frame is determined by district Locally determined as flagged or not flagged
English Course Failure Each grading period, end of year (annual) Failure of one or more courses
Mathematics Course Failure Each grading period, end of year (annual) Failure of one or more courses
Behavior Each grading period, end of year (annual) Locally defined
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High School EWS Tool Indicators Thresholds
Indicator Time Frame Benchmark (flag)
Attendance First 20 or 30 days, each grading period, end of year (annual) Missed 10 or more of instructional time
Course Failures Each grading period, end of year (annual) Failed one or more semester courses (any subject)
Grade Point Average Each grading period, end of year (annual) Earned 2.0 or lower (on a 4 point scale)
CCSR on-track indicator End of year (annual) Failed two or more semester core courses, or accumulated fewer credits than the number required for promotion to next grade
Behavior Each grading period, end of year (annual) Locally defined
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The Fork in the Road

• We now can go one of two ways in how we examine
  the results of the DEWS for a middle school or
  freshman student
• Examine the System data big picture, what is
  happening at the school, grade level, within or
  across student groups
• Examine the Student data look at the
  individual student, grades, truancy, class- work,
  and behavior

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Who Should Be Involved?

• Administrators
• General education teachers
• Special education teachers
• Related service providers
• Students and other stakeholders (If
  confidentiality can be maintained)

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System Analysis

• Who is this student?
• Why do we think (based on data) that he/she is at
  risk for not graduating on time?
• Is the area indicating they are at risk a
  long-standing or recent issue?
• Was this student on our radar?
• Has anyone spoken to the student or parents to
  get more info about risk area?

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System Analysis - continued

• Commonalities
• Geographical (home and building)
• Environment (general vs special education
  services)
• Who are their teachers?
• Are there any commonalities between groups in
  where they are at risk (EBD students x
  discipline)
• Are we catching these students
• outside of DEWS?

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Interventions

• Consider Both At Systemic and
• Individual Level for
• Attendance
• Behavior
• Academics
• Mobility
• Early Warning System Keys

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Using
Interventions

• Attendance
• Measure attendance in informative and actionable
  manners.
• Take measures to increase the number of students
  with very good attendance and decrease the number
  who are chronically absent.
• Recognize good attendance regularly through
  public acknowledgement and social rewards (i.e.,
  earning privileges).
• Separate attendance from course performance.
• Be and be perceived as safe and engaging places.
  

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Early Grade Attendance and Chronic Absence

• An Attendance Works study found that students
  who have good attendance across kindergarten and
  first grade have the highest third grade scores
  statistically significantly higher than any of
  the other groups.
• Chronic absence at kindergarten and first grade
  may erase many of the benefits of entering
  kindergarten with strong readiness skills.
• Students who had no attendance risks scored an
  average of 50 points higher on an
  English/Language Arts tests than students who
  were chronically absent in their first two years
  of school.

http//www.attendanceworks.org/wordpress/wp-conten
t/uploads/2010/04/ ASR-Mini-Report-Attendance-Read
iness-and-Third-Grade-Outcomes-7-8-11.pdf
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Interventions

• Behavior
• High engagement electives that provide avenues
  for short-term success.
• Positively recognize skill levels.
• Activities that honor students desire for
  adventure and camaraderie.
• Recognition at both the individual and group
  level for positive behavior.
• Teaching organizational and self-management
  skills.

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Interventions

• Academics
• Accept and acknowledge the implications of course
  grades being more predictive of eventual success
  than test scores.
• Create developmentally appropriate high
  school/college readiness indicators that are
  meaningful and engaging to middle students and
  understood by parents.
• Encourage quality coursework may require new
  forms of assessment.
• Offer extra help right away.

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Credit Flexibility to increase academic
engagement and success

• An attempt to personalize learning and extend the
  classroom beyond the four walls of high school.
• DPI has developed and released a guidance
  document for districts on credit flexibility
  models.

http//cal.dpi.wi.gov/files/cal/pdf/fostering-inno
vation-credit-flexibility.pdf
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Examples of Flexibility

• Personalized learning where instructional
  practices are adapted to fit each students
  needs.
• Competency based education through which students
  earn credit by demonstrating proficiency.
• Learning beyond the classroom with credits earned
  and/or mastery demonstrated through employment,
  service projects, independent and team projects,
  online instruction, and other activities that
  modify traditional instructional methods.
• Dual credit courses through which students access
  college level coursework with the possibility of
  earning both high school and college credits
  concurrently.

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Interventions

• Mobility
• Establish a transition protocol for families
  moving into your district
• Explore with families the causes and potential
  effects of relocation.
• Brainstorm ways families can minimize negative
  effects of relocation or allow students to
  remain in current school through the transition
  period.
• Take steps to effectively work with families
  experiencing trauma.
• Ensure educational records for all students
  leaving district are accurate and forwarded in a
  timely manner.

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Interventions

• Early Warning System Keys
• Focus on effective intervention.
• Not identification.
• Recognize and build on student strengths.
• Match resources to student needs.
• Evaluate the effectiveness of interventions.
• Teachers and administrators can get started with
  the local data available in their schools.

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Why Use an Early Warning System?

• 3 Reasons an Early Warning System Assists Student
  Achievement
• Focuses conversations and efforts on actionable
  problems
• Identifies students for intervention and
• Uses indicator patterns to address low
  performance in a strategic way.

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For further information or assistance
Gregg Curtis, PhD Education Consultant School Counseling WI Department of Public Instruction gregg.curtis_at_dpi.wi.gov 608-266-2820