Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook

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Job Prospects, Skill Shortages and Job Outlook

• CEET Annual Conference
• Friday 28 October 2005
• Labour Market Strategies Group (LMSG)
• Denis Hart

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Overview of presentation

• Five areas of discussion
• Industry drivers of jobs growth
• Occupational employment trends
• Assessing job prospects for occupations
• Skill shortages and workforce ageing
• Job Outlook online - 2005 update

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Industry employment projections

• Starting point for job prospects Monash model
  employment forecasts for industries
• Recent employment trends examine changes over
  long/medium and short term (DEWR trend data)
• Most employment action in service industries
  not modelled in as much detail as manufacturing
• Review Monash forecasts and prepare DEWR
  projections for around 160 industries (anchored
  by previous DEWR projections and Monash
  forecasts)
• DEWR industry employment projections are put into
  Monash model (new set of occupational
  projections)

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Employment growth by industry 5 years to Aug 05
(000)
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Industry employment drivers

• Five key industries are expected to contribute
  more than four in five new jobs in the five years
  to 2009-10
• Strong growth is expected to continue for
  Property and Business Services and Health and
  Community Services (the two largest sources of
  new jobs)
• Easing in growth is projected for Retail and,
  more so, Construction, while continuing job gains
  are projected for Accommodation,
  Cafes/Restaurants
• Manufacturing employment is expected to fall, and
  there may be some pick-up for Agriculture

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Industry drivers of jobs growthto 2009-10
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A tale of two industries
Manufacturing
Health and Community Services
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Employment growth by skill level (Aug 95 100)
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Occupational employment projections

• Examine Monash model forecasts (including DEWR
  version), and actual employment growth trends
• Projections are anchored by the Monash model
  forecasts and our previous projections (2000 to
  2004)
• Factors considered recent/historical employment
  growth, whether occupation is in growth
  industries, vacancy trends and qualitative
  information on occupations (eg new technology,
  structural change, changes in work organisation)
• Employment projections are reconciled and
  converted into our occupational structure
• Prepare quantitative projections, but publish
  decile ratings in Job Outlook (with guide as to
  range of growth rates)

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Occupations with largest future job growth 5
years to 2009-10 (000)
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Projected job growth - selected Trades ( pa to
2009-10)
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JOB PROSPECTS

• Projected employment growth - next five years
• Recent/historical employment trends (up to ten
  years)
• Whether the occupation is employed in growth
  industries
• Unemployment rate for the occupation
• Vacancy trends and graduate employment outcomes
• Whether there are skill shortages and workforce
  ageing
• Job turnover - workers leaving the occupation
  (job opportunities for new workers) and total
  vacancies
• Expected occupational developments - structural
  change and the impact of technology, including
  new products
• Prospects ratings for occupations very good,
  good, above average, average and limited

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Key indicators Sales Assistants (graph)
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Key indicators - Sales Assistants
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Sales Assistants
Employment Growth
The graph shows employment growth (per cent) over
the past five years and two years for this
occupation, compared with all occupations.
Employment Level
The graph shows the employment level ('000) for
this occupation for February, 1990 to 2005
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Jobs with good prospects

• Accountant
• Bookkeepers
• Bricklayers
• Cabinetmakers
• Chefs and Cooks
• Customer Service Managers
• Dentists
• Finance Managers
• Financial Dealers/ Brokers
• Forklift Drivers
• General/Landscape Gardeners
• General Medical Practitioners
• Hairdressers

• Human Resource Professionals
• Legal Professionals
• Motor Mechanics
• Occupational Therapists
• Office Assistants/Managers
• Pharmacists
• Physiotherapists
• Policy Analysts
• Project/Program Administrators
• Receptionists
• Sales Assistants
• Security Officers/Guards
• Waiters

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Skill shortages in Australia

• Where are the skill shortages?
• Shortages are widespread in the trades eg
  automotive, chefs and cooks, engineering,
  electrical and (some) construction trades
• For professionals, skill shortages are mainly
  evident for nurses and health specialists (eg
  pharmacist, physiotherapist), child care workers,
  accountants and civil engineers
• Why do skill shortages matter?
• Skill shortages can impede industry growth and
  innovation (and cause upward pressure on wages)
  and affect the reliability and quality of
  services (eg health services)
• Information on skill shortages can
• Help to understand the nature and causes of skill
  shortages, develop industry-led and employment
  service strategies, guide education planning and
  target skilled migration

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Ageing of the workforce aged 45 years and over

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Occupational Wastage
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Job Outlook - 2005 update

• Job Outlook has 12 graphs on characteristics,
  trends and prospects for each occupation and an
  overview page (around 5,000 graphs for all
  occupations)
• In addition to a colour change and updating,
  there is a new graph showing employment growth by
  gender and full-time/part-time in the past few
  years)
• The median age in years has been added to the age
  profile graph
• Sample graphs are presented in the following
  slides and a brochure with sample graphs is
  available
• Available _at_ jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook

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Sales Assistants - overview
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Job Outlook - navigation

• The right-side navigation for Job Outlook
  (overview page) has valuable links for each
  occupation
• Current vacancies at the local level (on AJS)
• Education and training courses for each region
  (on Australian Training)
• In-depth occupational information - ONet from
  the United States (on Job Explorer)
• There are also links to information on jobs with
  good prospects, skill shortages and the
  educational profile
• Hyperlinks can be used to deep link to
  occupations
• http//jobsearch.gov.au/joboutlook/default.aspx?P
  ageIdAscoDescAscoCode8211