Title: Database for Energy Efficiency Resource Update Project Information and Final Results
1Database for Energy Efficiency Resource
Update ProjectInformation and Final Results
- A DEER Presentation
- at CALMAC Meeting
- Pacific Energy Center, San Francisco
- September 21, 2005
2DEER Update
- Introduction and History
- DEER
- Measure Cost Study
- Objectives and EE Regulatory/Policy Context
- Project Management Structure
- Program Advisory Committee
- Technical Committee
- Decision-making Processes and Orientation
- Challenges and Accomplishments
3DEER UpdateProject Implementation Structure and
Consultant Team Roles
- Presenters
- Gary Cullen Itron
- Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue
- Measure Savings Team
- Itron, J. J. Hirsch Associates, Quantum Inc,
Synergy - Measure Cost Team
- Summit Blue Consulting, Heschong-Mahone Group
4Project Advisory Team
- Shahana Samiullah, SCE (Project Manager)
- Ingrid Bran, PGE (MCS Project Manager)
- Tim Drew, Energy Division, CPUC
- Adriana Merlino, Energy Division, CPUC
- Christine Tam, ORA, CPUC
- Sylvia Bender, CEC
- Mike Messenger, CEC
- Andrew Sickels, SDGE (Project Manager 2002-03
phase) - Jennifer Barnes, PGE
- Leonel Campoy, SCE
- Craig Tyler, Tyler Associates (PGE
representative 2002-03 phase) - Jay Luboff (former ED representative 2002-03
phase) - Eli Kollman (former ED representative 2002-03
phase) - Others
5Role of Project Advisory Team
- Provide feedback and direction to the initial
work plan - Provide unified and consistent advice and
direction as issues appeared - Review methodological methods and assumptions
- Review and provide comments on study results
6Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles
- ITRON
- Gary Cullen (Project Manager), Bob Ramirez,
Ulrike Mengelberg - Coordinate the activities of the consultant and
advisory teams - Coordinate with the measure cost team
- Develop the non-weather sensitive residential and
commercial sector measure savings - Develop the agricultural sector measure savings
- Coordinate, consolidate, and format the measure
savings, cost, and EUL data for uploading - In consultation with Synergy, help design the web
interface
7Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles
- JJ Hirsch Assoc.
- Jeff Hirsch, Scott Criswell, Paul Reeves, Kevin
Madison - Develop the analysis software based on the DOE-2
model for weather sensitive measures - Suggest methodological directions and solutions
- Develop the building prototype and conservation
measure characteristics - Develop the weather sensitive residential and
commercial sector measure savings - Coordinate data transfer format with Itron and
deliver data to Itron for uploading
8Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles
- Quantum Consulting
- Mike Rufo
- Interview potential DEER users
- Create DEER Periodic Update Plan
- Identify linkages to EMV studies
- Identify new measures to potentially include in
future DEER updates
9Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles
- Synergy
- Christine Chin-Ryan
- Develop web interface
- Populate web interface with data
- Debug web interface
10Measure Savings ProjectConsultant Team Roles
- Measure costs developed under separate contract
by Summit Blue - Measure cost team and roles will be discussed
later
11What is DEER?
- A collection of data for Residential and
Non-Residential energy efficiency measures. - It provides a common set of
- Ex ante Savings values kW, kWh, kBtu
- Measure Costs and
- Effective Measure Life (a.k.a EUL)
12Previous DEER Database
- Savings estimates and cost estimates were never
integrated - Database on hard copy and soft copy
- Commercial measures savings had not been updated
since 1994 - Residential measures savings more recently in
2001 - No information on EULs
13DEER Update
- First Phase of DEER Update began in 2003 and
included - Updating savings for non-weather sensitive
measures - Updating weather-sensitive models and the
software Measure Analysis Software - Creating a searchable, on-line database
14DEER Update
- Second Phase of DEER began in 2004 and included
- Revised non weather sensitive lighting measures
savings estimates - Completed the Measure Analysis Software for
weather sensitive analysis - Developed a limited number of High Priority
weather sensitive measure savings estimates - Integrated measure cost into the database
- Partial release Milestone completed on March 2005
- Frozen to support June 1st EE filing
15DEER Update
- Final DEER milestone
- Completed on-line DEER version 2.0 on August 31,
2005 - Supercedes March 2005 DEER version 1.0
- Revised non-weather sensitive data
- Added new and updated weather sensitive measures
- Added Agricultural measures
- Integrated new effective useful life estimates
- Completed integration of cost data
- Updated the website with the new information
16DEER Update
- Final Report Milestones
- Draft Final Report - Sept 30th for PAC
- Final Report - October 31st
17DEER Update
- TOU Profiler Currently TBD
- Too many other issues other items with higher
priority - Definition of kW
- Calibration
- Unification of kW definition across all measures
and end uses - Agreed initially
- Create a Time of use Profiler
- Will utilize the DEER eQuest model
- The model will be available for download
- Preliminary estimate of amount of data
- More discussions needed
18Measure Cost Study (MCS) Project Team
- Marshall Keneipp, Summit Blue Consulting (Project
Manager) - Floyd Keneipp, Summit Blue Consulting
- Joshua Radoff, Summit Blue Consulting
- Cathy Chappell, Heschong Mahone Group, Inc.
- Cynthia Austin, Heschong Mahone Group, Inc.
19MCS Project Overview
- Undertaken to update measure cost estimates
within DEER - Previous update conducted in 2001
- Parallel completion schedule to DEER Update
- High priority measures complete in March 2005
- Full update completed in August 2005
20Measure Cost Study (MCS) Project Scope of effort
- 814 separate costs were collected on 287 measure
IDs - Many measure IDs have one cost
- Some measure IDs have costs for multiple bins
(i.e. capacities, purchase volumes, etc.). For
example measure D03-410, residential condensing
90 AFUE furnace, has 10 costs - one cost for each
of 10 Btu capacities - 625 separate base costs were collected
- Some measures were full cost only and did not
require base cost estimates - 574 measure labor cost were collected
- Some measures were incremental equipment costs
only and did not require a labor cost estimate - A total of over 12,100 individual cost
observations were collected
21Questions/Comments?
22Development of DEER ProductsNon-Weather
Sensitive Energy Savings
- Presenter
- Gary Cullen Itron
23Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- CFL Lighting
- Refrigerators
- Clothes Washers Dryers
- Dishwashers
- Water Heating
- Swimming Pool Pumps
24Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- CFL Lighting Measure Impact (delta
watts/unit hours/day days/year In Service
Rate) / 1000 watts/kWh - Demand Impact delta watts/unit
In Service Rate Peak Hour Load Share - The In Service Factor is an estimate
of the percentage of lamps that are actually
used. It is a rough estimate based on
utility experience. - Hours of Operation/Day and Peak
Hour Load Share from KEMA CFL Metering
Study
25Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- CFL Lighting Example (14W CFL replace 60W
Inc) Measure Impact (46W 2.34
hours/day 365 days/year 0.9) / 1000
watts/kWh 35.4 kWh - Demand Impact 46W 0.9 0.081
3.35 W
26Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Refrigerators Used the Energy Star
calculator available on-line at http//www.energ
ystar.gov - Key Input values for the
calculator Refrigerator Type (top, side, or
bottom mount freezer) Ice through the door (yes
or no) Refrigerator fresh volume (cubic
feet) Refrigerator freezer volume (cubic feet) -
27Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Clothes Washers Utilized the three
recommended Consortium for Energy Efficiency
(CEE) Tiers for Modified Energy Factor
Used the Energy Star calculator (that utilizes
an EF rather than MEF) on-line at http//www.ene
rgystar.gov Estimated the equivalent EF value
for CEE MEF values from Energy Star list of
approved washers Other key Energy Star
variables include Number of wash cycles/year (E
Star value is 392 cycles) Washer capacity (three
sizes 1.5, 2.65, and 3.5 cubic feet)
Further disaggregated impacts by water heat and
clothes dryer fuel types Fuel impact
disagreegations based on Efficiency Vermont
estimates Demand impact based on a
energy/peak factor of 0.417. This is
carryover from previous 2001 DEER -
28Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Clothes Washer Example (Tier 3 2.65 cu.ft)
Measure Impact (cycles/year capacity /
base EF) (cycles/year capacity /
measure EF) (392 2.65 / 1.58) (392
2.65 / 4.94) 447 kWh - Demand Impact Measure Impact
energy/peak factor 447 kWh 0.417
186.4 W
29Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Clothes Dryer 1993 National Appliance
Energy Conservation Act (NAECA) minimum
efficiency used for base
technology EF 3.01 for electric dryers EF
2.67 for gas dryers Used DOE test
procedure guidelines for Drying cycles per
year 416 UEC of 2.33 kWh/cycle for electric
(969 kWh/year) UEC of 8.95 kBtu/cycle for gas
(37.2 therms/year) Assumed 416 cycles
represented Single Family Assumed 250
cycles for Multi-Family (CEC estimate of 60 less
use by MF) Energy savings 5 of
energy use. This is a carryover from previous
2001 DEER Demand impact based on a
energy/peak factor of 0.371. This is
carryover from previous 2001 DEER -
30Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Clothes Dryer Example (SF electric)
Measure Impact Electric base use Savings
Percentage 969 kWh 0.05 48
kWh - Demand Impact Measure Impact
energy/peak factor 48 kWh 0.371
17.8 W
31Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Dishwasher Used the Energy Star
calculator available on-line at http//www.energ
ystar.gov - Key Input values for the
calculator Base Energy Factor (EF)
0.46 Measure Energy Factor 0.58 Annual wash
cycle (DOE test procedure) 215 (assume SF) MF
wash cycles (assumed to be 75 of SF) 160 - Demand impact based on a energy/peak
factor of 0.371. This is carryover from
previous 2001 DEER -
-
32Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Water Heating Measures High efficiency
water heater (electric EF0.93, gas
EF0.63) Heat pump water heater (EF2.9) Point
of use water heater low flow showerhead (from
2.5 to 2.0 gallons per minute) Pipe wrap Faucet
aerators - Savings expressed as of base use
Base use varied by utility service area
(same method as 2001) - Demand impact based on a energy/peak
factor of 0.22. This is carryover from previous
2001 DEER -
33Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Water Heating Measure Saving High
efficiency water heater electric - 5.4 High
efficiency water heater gas - 5.0 Heat pump
water heater 69.7 Point of use water heater
15.0 low flow showerhead 4.0 Pipe wrap
4.0 Faucet aerators 3.0 -
34Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Residential
Measures
- Pool Pumps Single speed and two speed
included Relied on PGE and SCE
engineers for calculating impacts
General assumptions Average pool size of
25,000 gallons Average water turnover rate of
6-8 hours Average pump motor demand of 1.75
kVA Typical filtration time of 4 to 6 hours
For single speed motors, motor downsizing
and runtime reductions assumed
35Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Interior Lighting
- Exterior Lighting
- Cooking
- Copy Machine
- Water Heating
- Vending Machine Controls
- High Efficiency Motors
- Agriculture
36Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Interior Lighting Measures CFL screw-in
lamps CFL hardwire fixtures High intensity
discharge (HID) lamps Premium T8 lamps Dimming
Ballasts De-lamping fluorescent 4 ft and 8 ft
fixtures
37Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Interior Lighting Basic Methodology
Measure Impact (delta watts/unit hours/day
days/year In Service Rate) / 1000 watts/kWh - Demand Impact delta watts/unit
In Service Rate Peak Hour Load Share -
38Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Exterior Lighting Exit Signs High
intensity discharge (HID) lamps Exit
Signs Timeclocks Photocells
39Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Exterior Lighting Exit Signs
Methodology HID lamps delta watts saved hours
of use (4,100 hours) no peak impacts Exit
Signs delta watts saved 8760 hours
Interactive Effects peak delta watts
Interactive effects 1.0 (coincidence
factor) Timeclocks Photocells watts
controlled hours of control no peak impacts
40Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Cooking High efficiency fryers (gas
electric) High efficiency griddle (gas) Hot
food holding cabinet Connectionless steamer
41Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
Cooking - Methodology Relied primarily on
the PGE technology briefs For each of these
measures, the energy savings calculation methodol
ogy is of the form Savings (APECRBase
APECREfficient) Daily Hours
Days Where APECR The Average Production
Energy Consumption Rate/hour Daily Hours
12 Days 365
42Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Copy Machines three sizes 0-20
copies/minute 21-44 copies/minute over 45
copies/minute Methodology assumptions from
Energy Star calculator
43Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Vending Machine Controls Characterized in
two measures by being installed in Cold drink
vending machines Uncooled snack vending
machines Measure savings and characterization
from the Pacific Northwest Regional Technical
Forum database Methodology assumes operated
during off-peak hours, therefore no demand
savings
44Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
-
- Water Heating Savings expressed as of
base use Base use varies by building
type. Come from the 1994 DEER study
Measures High efficiency gas water heater (7.1
savings) Point of use water heater (10
savings) Water circulation pump time clock (6
savings)
45Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- High Efficiency Motors Meet premium
efficiency standards established by the
Consortium for Energy Efficiency
(CEE) Base efficiency meets Energy
Policy Act (EPACT) minimum Motor
sizes range from 1 HP to 200 HP Motor
hours of operation vary by industry sector
Motor loading from US DOE Motor Master
software Peak demand based on a
coincidence factor of 0.75
46Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- High Efficiency Motors - Calculation
Energy savings (kWh) (Motor HP / EPACT motor
efficiency) kW/HP hours of operation
motor loading (motor HP / premium motor
efficiency) kW/HP hours of operation
motor loading - Peak (kW) (motor HP kW/HP
coincidence factor / EPACT motor efficiency) -
(motor HP kW/HP coincidence factor / premium
motor efficiency)
47Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Agricultural Measures Low pressure
irrigation sprinkler nozzle Sprinkler
irrigation to micro irrigation conversion
Infrared film for greenhouses
Greenhouse heat curtain Variable
frequency drive for dairy pumps
Ventilation fans or box fans High
volume, low speed fans
48Non-Weather Sensitive Measures Non-Residential
Measures
- Agricultural Measures Methodology taken
from Express Agricultural Working Papers
Irrigation savings varied by crop type
49Questions/Comments?
50Development of DEER Products Weather Sensitive
Energy Savings
- Presenter
- Jeff Hirsch JJ Hirsch Associates
51Weather Sensitive MeasuresOverview
- Methods Used
- Sources of Information
- Calibration
- Simulation Cases
- Results Available
52Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- Using up-to-date DOE-2/eQUEST for simulation
- Improving engineering accuracy of prototypes
- Explicit simulations replace previous
simplifications - 16 Title 24 climate zones not CEC planning zones
- Complete analysis tool published
53Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- Using up-to-date DOE-2/eQUEST for simulation
- Hourly simulation of all elements
- Includes details of configurations
- Allows easy review and update
- Well understood and open tool
54Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- Improving engineering accuracy of prototypes
- More complete activity area definitions
- More complete HVAC definitions
- Coordination with IOU program methods
- eQUEST wizard definitions for flexibility
55Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- Explicit simulations replace previous
simplifications - Residential
- evap cooler, whole house fan, SEER perf.,
PStat, - Non- Residential
- refrigeration systems, HVAC loops/ducts
w/losses,
56Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- 16 Title 24 climate zones not CEC planning zones
- Sizing
- Peak load based on design day for each zone
- Peak demand
- Super critical peak days chosen for each zone
57Weather Sensitive MeasuresMethods Used
- Complete analysis tool published
- Allows examination of assumptions
(prototypes/measures) - Eases updating (EMV, research, new
codes/standards)
58Weather Sensitive MeasuresSources of Information
- Previous DEER studies
- Potential Studies
- RASS/CUES surveys
- EMV studies
- Published research
- Laboratory and field test work
59Weather Sensitive MeasuresCalibration
- Residential
- RASS used to update previous studies
- Non-residential
- Adjustments both at activity area and whole
building level - CEUS and EMV
60Weather Sensitive MeasuresSimulation cases
- Base case
- Vintage typical base on survey data
- Code base Case
- Minimally compliant or standard practice
- Measure Case
- Most common program tier's
61Weather Sensitive MeasuresResults Available
- Customer Savings
- energy and demand
- Above Code Savings
- Energy and demand
- Baselines and Normalizations
- Baseline and enduse
- Common units allow scaling
62Questions/Comments?
63DEER UpdateMeasure Cost Study
- Presenter
- Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue Consulting
64Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications
- Measure lists provided by Itron
- Developed cost specifications for each measure
- Includes more delineation in terms of sizes,
efficiencies and features - Measure cost specifications reflect product
availability and common installation practices - Measure cost team included best judgment
regarding size and efficiency breakdowns and
bracketing of energy analysis specs
65Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications (Cont.)
- Measure costs specifications encompass the sizes
and technical specs of measures used in the
energy analysis, but reflect availability of
products on the market - Consistent with and indexed to Itron measure
specs, but some specifications require a range of
values to allow for adequate sample - Cost team discerned between a wide range of
product options and narrowing pricing to
representative products options - Example A 90 AFUE single stage furnace was
priced but a 90 AFUE furnace with a variable
speed fan was not because the costs are very
different
66Defining Cost ParametersMeasure Cost
Specifications (Cont.)
- Cost data is first cost only -- life cycle or OM
costs/cost savings not included - Pricing reflects commonly available standard
products and excludes specialty, high-end items - Some price observations (outliers) were excluded
to assume a rational purchasing policy would be
used (who would pay THAT?) - Equipment and labor prices are specific to
California to extent possible but average across
state
67Defining Cost Parameters Key Cost Definitions
- Cost Observation a single price point for an
individual measure or measure configuration - Cost values are what a program participant would
pay to implement the measure consistent with
definitions in the CA Standard Practice Manual
(initial capital cost) - Cost units ( / ton, / HP, / square foot,
etc.) - Mostly the same although different for some
measures - Distinct field in detailed cost data appended to
Cost Basis designator in measure detail
68Defining Cost Parameters Key Cost Definitions
(cont.)
- Application indicates if the cost is for
- Retrofit (RET) - replacing a working system with
a new technology or installing a technology that
was not there before. - Replace-on-burnout (ROB) - replacing a technology
at the end of its useful life. - New construction or major renovation (NEW) -
installing a technology in a new construction or
major renovation project. - Cost Basis indicates if the cost is
- Incremental (INCR) - the differential cost
between a base technology and an energy efficient
technology. - Installed (FULL) - the full or installed cost of
the measure including equipment, labor, overhead
profit (OHP).
69Data Collection and Analysis ProcessOverview
- Created and implemented systematic data
collection processes and instruments - Clarified measure lists and specifications
through series of communications with Itron and
members of Advisory Group - Used 4 analytic methods in determining costs
- Labor cost estimates generally base on the
following equation - Manhours x Appropriate wage rate
- Used multiple data sources to collect cost data
- Organized data in Cost Analysis Workbooks
70Data Collection and Analysis ProcessAnalytic
Methods
- Simple average Average of all cost observations
discarding outliers in some cases where a
particular observation appeared out of line - Weighted average Uses one or more observed
market variables to weight raw cost data - Regression cost model Regression models using
relevant performance factors as independent
variables - Custom cost estimates Typical of engineered
and/or technically complex types of measure where
a unique equipment or system configuration needed
to be defined and a cost estimate built up for
the specific technical details of the measure
71Data Collection and Analysis ProcessLabor Cost
Estimates
- Labor cost estimates generally base on manhours
required to complete task times appropriate wage
rate - Wage rate based on trade (electrician, plumber,
etc.) and geographic location of activity - RS Means used to provide wage rate and location
adjustment multipliers
72Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost Data
Sources
- Website and on-site cost surveys of retailers
- Cost quotes from manufacturers, manufacturers
sales representatives, and distributors - Cost surveys of contractors and design
professionals. - Cost data from in California DSM program files,
particularly local programs - Secondary sources and reports
73Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks
- Excel based cost analysis workbook developed for
each measure. - Each workbook has 5 sections
74Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Raw Data
- Example of the Raw Data section of the High
Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer workbook
75Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Cost Results
- Example of the Results section of the High
Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer workbook
76Data Collection and Analysis Process Cost
Analysis Workbooks Statistical Summary
- Example of the Statistical Summary section of
the High Efficiency Electric Clothes Dryer
workbook
77Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005
- The scope of some measures has been expanded
- CFL size categories expanded
- More evaporative cooler options
- Windows expanded to include non-res. high
performance glazing - Several measures eliminated or reduced in scope
- Most T8 systems eliminated with the exception of
premium efficiency and dimming T8 ballasts - Eliminated coin-operated high efficiency clothes
washers and hot water heater tank wrap
78Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005
- New measures and measure categories have been
added - Vending machine occupancy sensor controls
- High-efficiency office copiers
- High-efficiency commercial cooking equipment
- Premium-efficiency motors
- Heat pump water heaters, point-of-use water
heaters, water circulation pump timeclocks - Swimming pool pumps
- Room AC and PTAC broken out as distinct measures
- Types and sizes of some applications has been
expanded
79Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005
2005 Cost Spec
- High-Efficiency Refrigerators Example
Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15.5 Top Side Bottom
20 Top Side Bottom
23 Top Side Bottom
25 Top Side Bottom
30 Top Side Bottom
2001 Cost Spec
Energy Analysis Spec
Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15 Top Side
20 Top Side
25 Top Side
30 Top Side
Capacity (cubic feet) Type
15.5 Top Side Bottom
23 Top Side Bottom
80Overview of Cost Data Changes from 2001 to 2005
- Examples of cost adjustments
- Average CFL prices decreasing
- Installed (full) cost of furnaces up by factor of
2 equipment up about 30 installation cost
estimate up by factor of 4 - Energy Star refrigerator prices down over 30 on
average
81Changes in Cost Data Some Examples CFLs
- Market trends changes CFLs
- Changes in the manufacturing base -- increase in
scale of imports resulting in lower cost products - Increasing product availability -- only 10 of
CFLs purchased in 2002 were from big 3 mfrs
(Philips, Osram, GE) with smaller mfrs getting
shelf placement with lower prices - Changes in distribution -- web sales increasing,
B2C sales increased from 59B in 2000 to 428B in
2004 - Prices trending down
- NWEEA estimates avg. price down from 14-28 in
1997 to 5-10 in 2002 - Compared to 2001 DEER, average CFL prices for low
volume purchases down by 29 high volume down by
48
82Changes in Cost Data Some Examples CFL
- Retail price spread for integral CFL lamps
83Cost Data Collection and Analysis Process
- Cost data available in four formats
- Cost data included in measure details from
website for each run ID - More detailed Cost Data file available under
Supporting Documents as a downloadable file - Organized by measure category
- More details and measure variations
- Cost Analysis Workbooks most detailed
- In hard copy in the final project report
84Cost Data Defining Cost Parameters
- How to find the most applicable cost information?
- Measure detail pages for each run ID - the per
unit equipment measure cost of 13.65 for all 90
residential furnaces - This provides an average cost based on a 100,000
Btu furnace - The Cost Data file under Supporting Documents
provides prices on a range of furnace sizes - This provides a range of costs for 90 AFUE
furnaces from 60,000 Btu to 140,000 Btu. Per
unit costs (/KBtu) ranges from 21.53 to 12.13,
respectively - The cost workbook section Can use either
statistical summary or individual price
observations - For example, the per unit equipment measure cost
for 90 AFUE 100,000 furnaces ranges from to
12.31 to 16.52 based on 9 observations
85Integration of Costs and Savings Data
- Itron developed a consolidated list of all
measures - Common units were identified and where possible,
made consistent between energy impacts and cost - Summit Blue developed point estimates for each
measure in the consolidated list and populated
the Consolidated Measure spreadsheet - Itron utilized this Consolidated Measure
spreadsheet as a series of look-up tables for
populating DEER
86Questions/Comments?
87Guide to DEER and Some ResultsWebsite and Test
Drive
- Presenters
- Gary Cullen Itron
- Jeff Hirsch JJ Hirsch Associates
- Floyd Keneipp Summit Blue
88Website Considerations
- Two Levels of Savings
- Customer savings - for system savings and early
replacement savings. - Above Code Savings - for all measures affected
by an energy code or standard (reportable savings
for replace on burnout.) - Common Units
- The energy and cost common units are distinct
- Over 90 of cases, they are the same
- When different, distinctly identified
89Website Considerations
- Application indicates if the cost is for
- Retrofit (RET) - replacing a working system with
a new technology or adding a technology. - Replace-on-burnout (ROB) - replacing a technology
at the end of its useful life - New construction or major renovation (NEW) -
installing a technology in a new construction or
major renovation - Cost Basis indicates if the cost is
- Incremental (INCR) - the differential cost
between a base technology and an energy efficient
technology - Installed (FULL) - the full or installed cost of
the measure including equipment, labor, overhead
profit (OHP)
90Website Navigation Opening Screen
91Website Navigation Browse Measures
92Website Navigation Select Subcategory
93Website Navigation Review Summary Page - Top
94Website Navigation Summary Page Information
- Area 1 - Summary Identification of 13 variables
- Area 2 Further Filtering Options
- Climate Zone, Building Type, Vintage, Savings
Unit - Area 3 Sorting Order
- Area 4 Download Measure Detain in Excel
- There are Excel spreadsheet limitations
95Website Navigation Review Summary Page - Bottom
96Website Navigation Summary Page Information
- At bottom is listing of how many measures are
included in this summary - A large number would indicate a need for further
filtering in order to do the download
97Website Navigation Detailed Measure Information
98Website Navigation Detailed Measure information
- Top
99Website Navigation Detailed Measure information
- Bottom
100Supporting Documents Section
- Website Users Guide
- Net-to-Gross Ratios Table
- Access Tables
- Glossary
- Cost Data
- Cost Data Users Guide
- New EUL Estimates 7-14-05 (SERA Report)
- Consolidated Measure Data
-
101Supporting Documents Section Consolidated
Measure Data
102Questions/Comments?
103DEER UPDATE PLAN
- Presenter
- Mike Rufo, Quantum Inc.
- Measure Savings Team
- Itron, J. J. Hirsch Associates, Quantum Inc,
Synergy - Measure Cost Team
- Summit Blue Consulting, Heschong-Mahone Group
104Planning for DEER Updates and Linkages to EMV
- Objectives
- ID and discuss DEER-related Issues
- ID and discuss DEER-related EMV needs
- Recommendations for future DEER updates
- Recommendations for improved EMV-DEER linkages
- Approach
- Interviews with Joint Staff, IOUs, others
- Review of EMV studies and plans
- Lessons learned from current and past studies
- Deliverables
- Report/chapter on issues and recommendations
- Prioritized list of detailed measurement needs
105Key Update Issues
- Guidelines/Requirements for DEER Use
- DEER Update Process
- Energy Savings Methods and Sources
- Baseline Calibration and Load Shapes
- Segmentation and Averaging
- Costing Issues
- Types of Data to Include
- Measure Coverage and Allocation of Resources
- Measure-specific and EMV Linkage Issues
- Documentation
106DEER Update Process
- Most suggest DEER be preferred (default) source
of program planning data, some JS prefer
mandatory - Deviations permitted if data not available in
DEER - If data in DEER, demonstrate why alternate data
superior - If not in DEER, increased regulatory review,
higher likelihood of ex post measurement of
savings - Comprehensively updated at least every three
years - Process put in place to allow updates to specific
values to occur more often (every year or half
year) Start Jan. 06 - Next comprehensive update should be completed by
end of 07 - Update based on availability of superior
information - Strive for expected value orientation
- Neither conservative nor optimistic
- But lean conservative in face of great
uncertainty and risk - Involve diverse group of experts
107Savings Methods and Calibration
- Three primary methods
- Engineering calcs, building simulations,
eval/field/lab data - All methods should be calibrated
- Calibration has several elements
- General baseline (e.g., EUIs/UECs, EFLH)
- Specific baseline (e.g., duct leakage, thermostat
behavior) - Savings (e.g., evaluation results)
- Load shapes (not a primary focus of current DEER)
- Key sources
- RASS, CEUS, tracking and billing data,
eval/field/lab data - Tradeoffs among accuracy, simplicity,
transparency
108Segmentation and Averaging
- General/default approach - reflect market average
- Extensive segmentation for weather sensitive
- Btype, vintage, CZ 1,680 combos
- Program managers desire data for sub-segments
- Less efficient portion of pop
- Groups with specific characteristics
- Inclusion of sub-segment data should be
considered - But with caution, can backfire (e.g., t-stats in
01 DEER) - PMs must have plausible approach to targeting
- For both segments and sub-segments
- Need to include market weights
- Default average results across segments
109Costing Issues
- Clearer measure specs and better/earlier
integration w. savings task - Systematize the pricing process to extent
possible - Index certain costing elements to industry
recognized pricing methods and resources - Conduct more frequent, targeted and less
expansive updates - Integrate cost data collection and reporting into
program delivery (and evaluation) if possible - Increase importance and resources for cost
analysis - Historically, costs are step-child to savings
- As important to TRC B-C ratio as savings
-
110Types of Data to Include
- Interviewees asked which of following to include
- energy savings, peak savings, load shape, cost,
effective useful life (EUL), net to gross ratio
(NTGR), penetration and saturation information,
potential study results - Most responded that all of above should be
included, several said with exception of NTGRs - Additional elements suggested included carbon,
total source BTU, and water impacts - We recommend including, at a minimum
- Energy peak savings, load shapes (could be
reduced form), costs, EULs, market weights tied
to segments - NTGR incorporation needs more consideration
111Measure Coverage and Allocation of Resources
- DEER has never included all measures
- Focus on prescriptive-type measures
- Focus on prototypical measures
- Scope/resource tradeoffs
- Limited criteria-based allocation of resources
- Small impact measures sometimes absorb
disproportionate resources - Future efforts should prioritize based on
- Contribution to program areas and portfolio,
potential - Cost-effectiveness and associated uncertainty
- List of measures to add compiled
- More effort needed on custom (EMV and DEER)
112Measure-specific and EMV Linkage Issues
- Many difficult measure issues
- Lack of appropriate and reliable evaluation data
- List developed of measure-specific evaluation
needs - Need evaluations to produce measure-, segment-,
and parameter-level results - (Pre-98 impact evals focused on program
realization rates) - Importance of pre-measurement
- Some issues beg for controlled experiments
- Integration between DEER and Protocols teams
- DEER team need for direct access to eval data
113Measure-Level Issues
114Documentation
- Strong desire for highly detailed documentation
- Parameters, assumptions, and sources
- Electronically-linked documentation also desired
- Explanations of database fields
- Appropriate warnings or caveats
- Quality of documentation tied to decision to use
- Given DEERs importance, level of documentation
needed greater than for many other projects - Adequate resources must be allocated
- Documentation must be timely
- Database preferred to website views due to volume
of data and need for analysis
115Questions/Comments?