Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment

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Communicating Changes in the Arctic Environment

• Nancy N. SoreideNOAA/PMEL, Seattle, WA
• J. E. Overland, J. A. Richter-Menge, H. Eicken,
  Helen Wiggins and and J. Calder

ARCUS State of the Arctic Meeting, March 16-19,
2010
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Communicating Changes in Arctic Environment

• The international Arctic Sea Ice Outlook
• A community-wide summary of the expected
  September Arctic sea ice minimum.
• The Arctic Report Card
• A concise, scientifically credible and accessible
  source of information on recent changes in the
  Arctic.
• Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global Impacts
• Summarizes important recent Arctic science
  results for a broader broader audience, beyond
  the science literature.

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Sea Ice OutlookA community-wide summary of
expected September Arctic sea ice minimum.

• Reports issued monthly throughout summer.
• Synthesize community-wide estimates
• Scientific rationale of the range of estimates of
  expected minimum of sea ice
• Not formal predictions for Arctic sea ice extent

http//www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/
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1996
1979-2000
2009

• All Outlook projected values for September 2009
  were less than the observed value
• But most were within the range of uncertainty

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Sea Ice Extent

• Although there was more sea ice in September 2009
  than in 2007
• The fall freezeup into November for 2009 matches
  that of 2007.

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The slow freezeup that was seen in satellite
observations of Arctic sea ice extent is also
seen in 2009 photos
Chukchi Sea, September 30, 2009
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Arctic Report Card Tracks recent environmental
changesUpdated annually
http//www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/
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AtmosphereHigher air temperatures in the lower
Arctic atmosphere contributing to changes in the
atmospheric circulation in the Arctic and
northern mid-latitudes
AtmosphereLarge scale wind patterns impacted by
loss of summer sea ice
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Sea Ice, Atmosphere, GreenlandConsistent
evidence of warming
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Biology, Ocean and LandShow many indications of
warming
BiologyHigh Arctic species impacted by loss of
sea ice
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Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global
ImpactsSummarizes important recent Arctic
science results for a broader audience

• References
• 1 Wang, M., and J.E. Overland (2009) A sea ice
  free summer Arctic within 30 years? Geophys. Res.
  Lett., 36, L07502, doi 10.1029/2009GL037820.
• 2 Overland, J.E., and M. Wang (2010) Large-scale
  atmospheric circulation changes associated with
  the recent loss of Arctic sea ice. Tellus, 62A,
  19.
• 3Honda, M., J. Inoue, and S. Yamane (2009)
  Influence of low Arctic sea-ice minima on
  anomalously cold Eurasian winters. Geophys. Res.
  Lett., 36, L08707, doi10.1029/2008GL037079.
• 4Strey, S.T., W. Chapman, and J. Walsh (2009)
  Effects Of An Extreme Arctic Sea Ice Minimum On
  the Northern Hemisphere Atmosphere During Late
  Autumn and Early Winter, Eos Trans. Eos Trans.
  AGU, 90(52), Fall Meet. Suppl., Abstract
  C41A-0421.
• 5 Schweiger, A.J., Lindsay, R.W., Vavrus, S., and
  J.A. Francis (2008) Relationships between Arctic
  sea ice and clouds during autumn. J. Climate, 21,
  47994810.
• 6 Serreze, M.C., Barrett, A.P., Stroeve, J.C.,
  Kindig, D.N., and M.M. Holland (2009) The
  emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification.
  The Cryosphere, 3, 1119.
• 7 Holland, M.M., C.M. Bitz, and B. Tremblay
  (2006) Future abrupt reductions in the summer
  Arctic sea ice. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33,
  L23503,doi10.1029/2006GL028024.
• 8 Budikova, D. (2009) Role of Arctic sea ice in
  global atmospheric circulation A review. Global
  Planet. Change, 68(3), 149163.

http//www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/
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Arctic Report Card2http//www.arctic.noaa.gov/rep
ortcard/
International Arctic Sea Ice Outlook1
http//www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/

• A community-wide summary of the expected
  September Arctic sea ice minimum.
• Reports are released monthly throughout the
  summer.

• Scientifically credible, annually-updated website
  designed for managers, scientists and citizens
• Peer-reviewed by topical experts of the Climate
  Experts Group (AMAP) of the Arctic Council.

The Future of Arctic Sea Ice and Global
Impacts2http//www.arctic.noaa.gov/future/

• Summarizes important recent Arctic science
  results for a broader broader audience

1 Supported in part through the National Science
Foundation (NSF) and the National Oceanic and
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 2 Supported by
the NOAA Climate Program Office through the
Arctic Research Program