Towards a framework for assessing climate change interventions through impact evaluation Martin Prowse, ODI

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Towards a framework for assessing climate change
interventions through impact evaluationMartin
Prowse, ODI
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Key messages

• The applicability of impact evaluation to
  assessing climate change interventions has not
  been widely considered
• However, some mitigation and adaptation measures
  show potential in the short term
• Mitigation Biofuel production, forest protection
  initiatives, and environmental labelling
• Adaptation Community-based adaptation
• Other measures show potential in the longer term
  (for example, projects within NAPAs)

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Overview I

1. To what extent has impact evaluation been applied
   to climate change interventions?
2. How can we assess if IE could be applied to
   climate change interventions?
3. What are the generic shortcomings of impact
   evaluation?

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Overview II

• 4. Four mitigation measures (green growth
  strategies, environmental labelling initiatives,
  biofuel production, forest protection)
• 5. Four adaptation measures (community-based
  adaptation, disaster risk screening, GEF LDCF,
  GEF SCCF)
• 6. Conclusions

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1. To what extent has impact evaluation been
applied to climate change interventions?

• In the context of impact evaluations of GEF
  projects, it is clear that the rigorous impact
  evaluation model is neither appropriate nor
  affordable
• Mixed experience from using IE-type approaches
• GEFs alternative Bambergers Shoestring
  Methodologies and a Theory of Change approach

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2. How can we assess if IE could be applied to
climate change interventions?

• Costly and time consuming
• Suited to small-scale interventions, not
  large-scale policy reforms
• Direct budget supports limits scope for ex ante
  IE
• How does IE intersect with country ownership?

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3. What are the shortcomings of impact
evaluation?

• Institutional inertia
• Moral and ethical concerns
• Technical capacity
• and institutional compliance

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4. Four mitigation measures

• Green growth strategies (carbon credits from
  offset projects in non-Annex I countries)
• Environmental labelling initiatives (which
  illustrate the carbon footprint of products)
• Biofuel production (of second-generation biofuels
  such as jatropha)
• Forest protection schemes (such as Reduced
  Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
  REDD)

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4. Four mitigation measures
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5. Four adaptation measures

• Community-level adaptation (an autonomous,
  bottom- up approach)
• ORCHID (disaster risk screening tool)
• GEF Least Developed Country Fund (provides
  adaptation finance to the poorest countries,
  especially through National Adaptation Plans)
• GEFs Special Climate Change Fund (again has a
  primary focus on adaptation)

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5. Four adaptation measures
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4. Community-based adaptation

• Autonomous bottom-up approach to adaptation
• Builds on local technical knowledge and coping
  strategies
• Incongruence with IE? (i.e. participatory
  standpoint vs. ultra-positivism)
• But with and without comparisons of CBA are
  possible

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ORCHID

• Mainstreaming climate risk management through
  appraising projects and programmes
• Probably not desirable to randomise organisations
  or programmes
• Might be possible to use quasi-experimental
  methods

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6. GEFs Least Developed Country Fund

• Provides finance to the poorest countries, mainly
  for adaptation
• Supported completion of NAPAs
• Common priorities water resources food
  security agriculture infrastructure.
• NAPAs variable quality, with focus on
  conventional development projects
• IE can assess such projects

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7. GEFs Special Climate Change Fund

• SCCF has a primary focus on adaptation
• Again, a focus on water resources, agriculture,
  infrastructure
• Plans a reminiscent of conventional development
  projects

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Conclusions

• The applicability of impact evaluation to
  assessing climate change interventions has not
  been widely considered
• However, some mitigation and adaptation measures
  show potential in the short term
• Mitigation Biofuel production, forest protection
  initiatives, and environmental labelling
• Adaptation Community-based adaptation
• Other measures show potential in the longer term
  (for example, projects within NAPAs)