Patrick%20Carragher - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Patrick%20Carragher
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Incremental production in Columbia will be taken by USA ... But indigenous important bulwark against international supplied/price volatility ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: Patrick%20Carragher
1
Patrick Carragher
- Coal Supplies and Clean Coal Technology
2
Global Coal Demand (Thermal)
- Billion Tonnes
- 1980 3.0
- 2002 4.8
- 2030 (est) 6-7
3
UK Coal Production (Underground)
- Million Tonnes
- 1955 211
- 1983 105
- 1993 43
- 2005 10
4
UK Coal Production (Opencast)
- Million Tonnes
- 1983 14
- 1990 15.7
- 1996 16.6
- 2003 13.1
- 2005 10.2
- Decline due to presumption against
5
Global Trade
- Most coal production consumed locally
- International coal traded in 2003 - 720 mt
- Two main trading areas Asia and Europe
- Two trading types thermal and coking
- Main suppliers to international market
- Australia
- Indonesia
- South Africa
6
- Russia/Poland
- Columbia/Venezuela
7
Principal Suppliers to Europe
- Russia
- Australia
- Poland
- South Africa
- Incremental production in Columbia will be taken
by USA - Incremental production in Indonesia (and some
extent Australia) will be taken by China/Pacific
Rim
8
UK Market
- 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
- Electricity Generation 50.9 47.7 52.5 50.5 52.2
- Domestic 2.9 2.2 1.6 1.7 1.3
- Industry 1.5 2.2 1.6 2.1 2.0
- Coking 7.9 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.6
- Total 64.2 58.7 62.3 60.7 62.1
9
UK steam imports since 1999 mt
10
Imports by supplier ()
11
Can deep-mined coal compete?
- Costs 1.41/GJ now, have been as low as the
1.20s and as high as the 1.50s - Delivered prices are 1.80-ish and UKCs received
price is 1.39/GJ - Quality is poor compared to imports (Sulphur)
- A 2.00 Pound, or an import price collapse will
spell trouble for the UK production - Would the generators stay with the indigenous for
security?
12
Is there room at the ports?
13
Imports vs UK output mt
14
Imports Conclusions
- International market likely to remain tight
- Russia to remain main UK supplier provided high
price - No guarantee for indigenous UK coal production
- But indigenous important bulwark against
international supplied/price volatility - Opencast particularly vulnerable
15
Clean Coal
- Existing fleet 40 years old
- Pulverised fuel (pf technology)
- Environmental concerns of 1980s early 1990s acid
rain - Hence Large Ccombustion Plant Directive
16
Late 90s Environmental Focus on Carbon
- EU Emissions Trading Scheme
- National allocation plan
- Current fleet 29 GW (opted in) 20.5 GW
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- Opted in plant can run to 2016 possibly 2020
- Opted out plant must close by 2015
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New Technologies
- IGCC and Advanced Supercritical (ASC)
- Increase thermal efficiency
- Prospect of further development
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Clean Coal Task Group
- Reported in June and recommended retention of
current generating capacity with new Clean Coal
Technologies - However, Government assistance necessary on
number of levels - Price of carbon critical
- Market certainty for investment critical
20
Current Projects
- IGCC and ASC
- Power Fuel Hatfield - 800 MW
- Killingholme E.ON - 1000 MW
- Progressive Energy - Teeside (EOR?) - 800MW
- Progressive Energy - Valleys Project 450 MW
21
Supercritical
- RWE Tilbury - 1000 MW
- E.ON Kings North - 2X800 MW
- Scottish and Southern - Ferrybridge - 500 MW
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Carbon Capture and Storage
- All the above projects are CCS adaptable
- Peterhead (gas) EOR project
- Infrastructure essential for CCS
- New financial instruments
23
Conclusions
- Much progress made
- More to be done
- Government and EU support essential
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