Managing Local Energy and Environment Interfaces: AIMLocal Model Applications - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Managing Local Energy and Environment Interfaces: AIMLocal Model Applications


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Managing Local Energy and Environment
InterfacesAIM-Local Model Applications

• P.R. Shukla

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Introduction

• Modeling the dilemma of providing energy services
  and protecting the environment in a local region

SO2, NOX, SPM, CO2
Acid precipitation
Air pollutants
Energy Service Demand
Energy Technology
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AIM Local Model Methodology
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Model Formulation

• (1) Service demand constraint
• Al,j,i Service supply quantity by technologies
  and regions
• ?l,j,i Social service efficiency by
  technologies and regions
• Xl,p,i Operating quantity by technology
  combinations (l,p) and regions

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• (2) Operating capacity constraint
• ?l,i Operating efficiency by technologies and
  regions
• Sl,p,i Stock quantity by technology
  combinations and regions

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• (3) Energy supply constraint
• Energy consumption by fuels, technologies
  and regions
• ?k,l,i Energy efficiency improvement by
  operation style and maintenance

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• (4) Emission constraint
• Emissions
• Emission factors
• dl,p,im Pollutant release ratio by technology
  combinations and regions

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• (5) Cost functions
• Initial cost
• Operating cost
• Environmental cost

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• (6) Objective function

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Model Formulation in GAMS
An Example of Transport Problem
SETS
PARAMETERS
VARIABLES
EQUATIONS
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AIM-Local Database System
AIM workshop 2001
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Large Point Source and Area Source
3.Sector
Emission by point
Large Point Source
Emission by City
Emission by City and Sector
Emission by Region and Sector
Area Source
2.Region
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Structure of AIM-Local Database
Energy service tech. (LT) Air Pollution Control
(P) - Energy Cons.(K L P T), - Service Supply
(L J T) - Fixed Cost (L P T) - Removal Rate (L
P T) etc.
Energy Service Tech.(L T)
5. Service
6.Technology
Air Pollution Control(P)
Service Demand( I J )
7.Stock
Stock Quantity ( L T0 )
Subsidy ( I L T )
10.Counter- measure
Regulation( ME M T)
Technology Selection Module (AIM-Local GAMS ver.)
Share Potential( I L J T )
8.Share
Maintenance etc.( I LT )
Operating Rate ( I L T )
9.Performance
Tax( ME M T)
I LPS or Area L Energy Device P Removal
Porcess J Service K Energy M Gas (CO2, SO2,
NO2) T Time ME Group on measure
Energy Consumption CO2 Emission SO2/NO2
Emission ( I L T )
Energy Price Emission Factor ( K T )
4.Energy
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Input and Output

• Input
• (1) Energy
• Fuel type, Fuel price,
• Emission factors by fuels and technologies
• Energy resource constraints
• (2) Technology
• Initial cost, Operating cost
• Life-span, Capacity, Share
• Energy consumption by fuels for a unit production
• Pollutants removal technologies and combinations

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• (3) Service demand by regions and sectors
• Historical service data
• Future service demand forecast
• Economic development plans from the local
  government
• Development plans from the local industries
• (4) Air pollutant emission constraints
• Current air pollutant emissions
• Local environmental protection policies

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• Output
• (1) Aggregated results
• Total energy consumption by years
• Total costs by years
• Total CO2 emissions by years
• Total air pollutant emissions by years
• (2) Technology options
• CO2 emissions by technologies and years
• Air pollutant emissions by technologies and years
• Energy consumption by technologies and years

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• (3) Service output
• Service output by regions, sectors, technologies
  and years
• (4) Energy balance table
• Energy balance table for the local region by
  years (with energy information for sectors,
  technologies and fuel types)

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Model Features

• Simplified Structure
• Modeling local environmental constraints
• Direct benefit and co-benefit of counter measures
• Flexible model structure to cope with various
  practical situation in different regions
• GAMS programming
• GIS Interface

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Geographical Information System (GIS)
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Why GIS?

• Capture location sensitivity
• Provide layered information
• Analyze time slices
• Integrate location and time information in a
  consistent framework

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Spatial Data Characteristics

• Spatial data are characterized by information
  about position, connections with other features
  and details of non-spatial characteristics
• latitude and longitude as a geographical
  reference
• connection details such as which service roads,
  lifts and ski trails would allow the
  meteorologist access to the weather station
• non-spatial (or attribute) data, for instance
  details of the amount of snowfall, temperature,
  wind speed and direction

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Data Models
Raster data Model (sometimes referred to as
grid) Vector Data Model (an entity is a
component or building block used to help data
organization)
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GIS Database
Integrated GIS Database
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Examples of GIS Application to AIM-Local
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Beijing City

• Economic Features
• Per capita GDP 3 times of the national level
• Industry 60 of GDP
• Heavy Industry 80 of industrial GDP

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Beijing City Regional Details
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Source Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2000.
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Source Beijing Statistical Yearbook 2000.
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• Sources
• Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (1999).
• Beijing Municipal Government (1992).
• Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000b).

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• Sources
• Beijing Municipal Statistics Bureau (2000).
• Beijing Municipal Planning Commission (2000).
  
• Beijing Municipal Government (1992).

2000 2005 9.5 2006 2010 9.0 2011
2020 8.5
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• Large Point Sources data

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• Beijing Cement Plant

Technology dry kiln with pre-decomposition
process Capacity 2000 t/d Production 525
Portland cement, 0.74 Mt /a Location Changping
District, Beijing City
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• Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group
  Corporations

Refinery
Technology heavy oil based refinery
process Capacity 6.0 Mt /a Location Fangshan
District, Beijing City
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• Beijing Yanshan Petroleum and Chemical Group
  Corporations

Ethylene
Technology Diesel oil based process Capacity
0.45 Mt /a Location Fangshan District, Beijing
City
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• Beijing Shijingshan Thermal Power Plant

Technology coal boiler Capacity 4000 MW
Location Shijingshan District, Beijing City
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• Beijing Capital Steel Corporations

Capacity 8.00 Mt Location Shijingshan
District, Beijing City
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Area source data

• Residential sector
• Commercial sector
• Transportation sector
• Other sectors

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Results
Beijing Capital Steel Corporations
Beijing Shijingshan General Power Plant
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1995
SO2 intensity (t-SO2/km2)
2020 (case 1)
2020 (case 8)
2020 (case 6)
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1995
CO2 intensity (t-C/km2)
2020 (case 1)
2020 (case 6)
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Ahmedabad City, India

• High economic and demographic growth
• Industrial base
• Growing transport demand

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India
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Ahmedabad District
Note Figures in brackets show Urban share
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Ahmedabad Municipal Area
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Ahmedabad Municipal Area (South Zone)
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Ahmedabad Area CO2 Emissions 2030 (MT)
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Ahmedabad Area SO2 Emissions 2030 (MT)
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Ahmedabad LPS CO2 Emissions 2030 (kT)
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Ahmedabad LPS SO2 Emissions 2030 (kT)