Shelter CymruDr. Christian N. Jardine - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Title: Shelter CymruDr. Christian N. Jardine


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Achieving 60 cuts in CO2 emissions from housing
by 2050(Save the planet Knock down a house?)

• Dr Christian N. Jardine
• Environmental Change Institute
• University of Oxford

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The Domestic Sector

• Reducing CO2 emissions from the domestic sector
  by 60 by 2050

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Energy Use Within The Home

• Nearly 2/3 of energy goes on space heating
• 1/4 of energy used for heating water
• Lights and appliances moderately small, but
  rising rapidly (digital etc.)

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Our context

• Four objectives of Energy White Paper 2003
• 60 reduction in carbon dioxide by 2050
• adequate and affordable warmth
• security of supply
• competitiveness
• Accounts for likely changes in population and
  climate

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GB residential energy trends, 1970-2001
Based on Shorrock and Utley (2003)
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A growing and ageing population

• population peaks around 2050
• design for lifetime standards and social
  inclusion
• an opportunity to save energy while improving
  quality of life

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Effect of household size on energy use
Source Fawcett et al 2000, based on analysis of
EHCS 1996 data
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Improving the Housing Stock
High Carbon
Low Carbon
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Demolition rates - UK
ODPM 2003
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Housing stock changes, 1996 2050
Net additions, 1996 2004
refurbish
New build, 2005 - 50
demolish
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Fabric improvements by 2050
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Technical Potential of Appliances

• Major savings to be made from
• Lighting (LEDs replace incandescent bulbs)
• Cold appliances (vacuum insulated panels)
• Consumer electronics continues to grow
• Profligate equipment (air conditioning, patio
  heaters, hot tubs, plasma TVs) not taken up

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Key Challenges

• Improve efficiency of cold appliances and
  lighting
• Ensure low-carbon product design
• Over-emphasis on energy efficiency

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Low- and Zero-Carbon technologies (LZC)

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LZC Deployment
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Beyond Central Heating

• A chance for change 45 years 3 replacement
  boiler cycles
• Gas boilers in just 20 of homes by 2050
  (compared to 90 now)
• Average 0.8 LZCs per home by 2050
• Residential sector is a net exporter of
  electricity (summer time)

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Domestic energy use to 2050

• Energy use declines marginally to 2050
• But CO2 emissions 43 of present levels
• All electricity and most heat from onsite
  microgeneration

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40 House summary
More space, heat, hot water, lights, appliances
133 housing stock
100
70 demand reduction
40 low- zero-carbon micro-generation (LZC)
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Towards a low-carbon housing strategy

• Needs strong leadership and a coherent policy
  framework
• Tighter building regulations and compliance
• Extensive refurbishment of existing properties
• Target property transactions as key to improving
  existing homes
• Strong EU policies establish energy conservation
  as product design principle
• Widescale LZC deployment replacement of central
  plant with distributed plant
• Diversity of LZC technologies energy security

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• Thank you for your attention

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UK Electricity Mix

• Coal, oil and gas lead to emissions of the
  greenhouse gas CO2
• Gas also burned for heating in the home

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Residential electricity use
ECI, Decade Second Year Report, 1995
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Spread of electricity and gas use
Gas
Electricity
BRE, Energy Use In Homes, 2005
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Spread of consumption
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Demand for air-conditioning in a warmer climate
EdinburghWorst Case 0
Manchester Worst Case 7
Cardiff Worst Case 29
London Worst Case 42
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Cooling strategies and carbon emissions