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DeutschlandTREND: Die wirtschaftliche Lage
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1990 Restart Exit Polls by Infas and FGW for all national and state elections. 1996 Infratest dimap took over responsibility of Exit Polls for the ARD. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation
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Title: DeutschlandTREND: Die wirtschaftliche Lage
1
Exit Polls in Germany
Richard Hilmer Managing Director Infratest
dimap 3MC 2008 Session 28 Exit Poll Berlin,
26th of June 2008
2
History of Exit Polls in Germany
- 1978, June First Exit Poll by Infas for the
ARD (September 1978 first Exit Poll by
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (FGW) for the ZDF)
- 1979 Abandonment because of political debate
- 1990 Restart Exit Polls by Infas and FGW for
all national and state elections
- 1996 Infratest dimap took over responsibility of
Exit Polls for the ARD. Exit Polls realized
since 1997
- 3 for national elections
- 2 for european elections
- 40 for state elections
- 30 for local elections
- _______________________
- 75 Total
3
Targets of Exit Polls and how to reach them
- External Factors
- Voting System
- Official Support
- Party-System
- Turnout
- Absentee voting
- Competitive Environment
- Internal Factors
- Sampling
- Field work
- Selection process
- Questionnaire
- Modelling
- Main Targets
- measure voting behaviour of electorate and
selected subgroups - identify major motives
- analyse the voter flows
- precise prediction of the results in real time
- sideeffect showcase for capacity and efficiency
of MR
4
Targets of Exit Polls and how to reach them
- External Factors
- Voting System
- Official Support
- Party-System
- Turnout
- Absentee voting
- Competitive Environment
- Internal Factors
- Sampling
- Questionnaire
- Field work
- Selection process
- Modelling
- Main Targets
- measure voting behaviour of electorate and
selected subgroups - identify major motives
- analyse the voter flows
- precise prediction of the results in real time
- sideeffect showcase for capacity and efficiency
of MR
5
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
- adequate tools Questionnaire fitting to the
voting system
6
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
7
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
8
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
- adequate tools (fitting to the voting
system) - intensive interviewer training and support
- trouble avoiding/trouble shooting program
(precontacting officials / back up teams for
election day) - maximum of transparancy and anonymity in
surveys
9
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
ARD-Election-Box
10
Optimizing Exit Polls field work and data
processing
- adequate tools (fitting to the voting system)
- intensive interviewer training and support
- trouble avoiding/trouble shooting program
(precontacting officials/ back up teams for
election day) - maximum of transparancy and anonymity in
surveys - data delivery-processing
- absolute reliability
- automatic checking procedures
11
Optimizing Accuracy of Prognoses
12
Exit Polls New Challenges
- Declining Turn Outs
- Increasing number of absentee voters
- Increasing number of late deciders
- Especially problematic for pre-election surveys
- but also for comparison of precinct and absentee
voting in Exit Polls.
- Voting systems become more and more complicate
- Structural bias in sampling despite of a
response rate of 70 to 80
13
Optimizing Exit Polls - Sampling
1. Level Precincts (national election appr.
80.000)
- Random sampling
- Regional stratification
- Representation of past election result
- Differentiated coverage of strongholds weak
spots of major parties
(s)
14
Optimizing Exit Polls Selection of Voters
2. Level Selection of Voters
old approach
- sample every K-th voter
15
Optimizing Exit Polls Selection of Voters
2. Level Selection of Voters
New approach
- full voters survey (per time slice)
- Avoids structural bias
- Increase number of interviews (BTW 100.000
instead of 20.000) - Delivers more precise results and structures
- Better representation of precinct results
- Minimizes need for weighting/modelling
16
Optimizing Accuracy of Prognoses
17
Optimizing Accuracy of Prognoses
State Election in Hamburg 2008
18
Thank you!
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