Title: Philip Sutton Convener Greenleap Strategic Institute 29 October 2006 Version 1'b
1Philip SuttonConvenerGreenleap Strategic
Institute29 October 2006 (Version 1.b)
- Creating a
- Green Growth Strategy
- Workshop notes
Up-to-date notes can be found at
http//www.green-innovations.asn.au/green-growth/
Green-growth.htm
2Anchoring Green Growth Strategies on actually
achieving sustainability, very fast
3The real structure of the economy
4Conversion of Natures economy to the Human
economy
5Once the human economy gets large enough
(relative to the size of the earth) indirect
costs escalate at a hyper-exponential rate, and
both the natural environment and the human
economy become unsustainable
6There is a rapid switch in the ratio of Direct
vs Indirect Costs of developments as natures
economy shrinks and the human economy grows
7Climate change case study
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9400,000 year record of CO2 and temperature
Petit, J. et al. (1999). "Climate and atmospheric
history of the past 420,000 years from the Vostok
ice core, Antarctica", Nature, Volume 399 Number
6735 Pp. 429-436.
10Flows of emissions of CO2 from burning
fossil-fuels have risen rapidly since 1950
Gt CO2
Source World Resources Institute, CAIT
11Strong Global Warming Observed
Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research Based on Folland et al (2000) and Jones
and Moberg (2003)
12Global soil moisture trends 1948 - 2002
This depiction of linear trends in the Palmer
Drought Severity Index from 1948 to 2002 shows
drying (reds and pinks) across much of Canada,
Europe, Asia, and Africa and moistening (green)
across parts of the United States, Argentina,
Scandinavia, and western Australia. (Illustration
courtesy Aiguo Dai and the American
Meteorological Society.) National Center for
Atmospheric Research (NCAR) http//www.ucar.edu/ne
ws/releases/2005/drought_research.shtml
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14Global insurance losses1970 2005
Source Swiss Re sigma no1/2005
www.theclimategroup.org/assets/Bruce20Thomas20(0
6-0420pm).ppt
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16Additional short term threats
- Increased frequency and more intense fires
- Increased storms severity (cyclones, hurricanes,
tornados, hail storms) - Bigger sea storm surges
- Higher temperatures / heat stress
- Increased soil loss / dust storms
- Water shortages
- Migration of pests and diseases
- Loss of soil carbon
- Food shortages
172 ºC warming is thought to be a rough boundary
between dangerous and catastrophic climate
change
18Global average surface equilibrium temperature
change for various stabilization targets.
Source Azar, C., Rodhe, H., 1997. Targets for
Stabilization of Atmospheric CO2. Science 276,
1818-1819. . Dashed line a) refers to an estimate
of the maximum natural variability of the global
temperature over the past millennium, and dashed
line b) shows the 2oC temperature threshold.
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20Modelling the recent evolution of global drought
and projections for the 21st century with the
Hadley Centre climate model Eleanor J. Burke,
Simon J. Brown and Nikolaos Christidis Hadley
Centre for Climate Prediction and
Research October 2006
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22- Severe drought over 40 of land (agriculture
unviable on 30) - Near total loss of the Amazon
- Between 20 - 60 loss of all species on Earth
- Accelerating sea level rise
- Loss of Himalayan ice sheet (and seasonal snow
melt) - Loss of the Arctic and Antarctic sea ice
- Melting of the permafrost
23Crucial Prevention AspectAvoiding Catastrophic
Climate Change
24Dangerous catastrophic climate change
- We have already entered the realm of dangerous
climate change - It is thought that warming more than 2ºC over the
pre-industrial level will lead to catastrophic
climate change - There is a 20-30 chance that we will trigger 2ºC
warming with 400 ppm CO2 an atmospheric level
that will be reached in less than 10 years
unless massive cuts now.
25We need to treat climate change not as a
long-term threat to our environment but as an
immediate threat to our security andprosperity
It is now becomingincreasingly clear that it is
what we do in the next 15 years that matters
most. John Ashton, the UK's climatechange
envoy, 8 September 2006
26One scenario for stabilising atmospheric CO2 at
350 ppmv.
Enting, I., Wigley, T. and Heimann, M. (1994).
Technical Paper No. 31 Future emissions and
concentrations of carbon dioxide Key ocean /
atmosphere / land analyses. CSIRO Division of
Atmospheric Research Melbourne.
27There is too much CO2 in the air right now!
- We need to get to zero greenhouse gas emissions
as fast as possible (within 10 years) - We need to take excess CO2 out of the air as fast
as possible to bring the atmospheric level down
to between 300-280 ppm (precautionary principle)
28End ofclimate change case study
29A completely new development paradigm needed
- Green growth must be 100 decoupled from damage
and it must enable the restoration of natures
economy (our sector zero) to safe condition. - Economic development must now be truly
ecologically sustainable. - This is not comfortable political rhetoric it
has huge implications for how to change and
manage the economy and for how politics is
conducted.
30Key is to 100 de-link economic growth from
environmental impact / waste
31Homeostatic management
- Dynamically creating/maintaining a state of
sustainability - prevention (eg. Natural Step principles)
- recovery/restoration
32Key concepts
- We need to be clear about what we are trying to
sustain and the scale and urgency of the task - We have to apply double-practicality - get things
done and do things that actually solve problems - Sustainability requires having no major
trade-offs - We need to recognise that we are facing a global
sustainability emergency.
33Creating a Green Growth Strategy
34Economic growth relates to the service flow (of
the whole product), not to the physical
platform (which makes it possible for
dematerialisation to work)
35The conditions under which a truly sustainable
economy could have continuing economic growth
Continually rising service flow - to benefit a
stable population at a sustainable level
Fixed (or declining) stock of materials
maintained in a closed-cycle (with minuscule top
up from nature)
Stock enhanced while in use
New capital
Reuse recycle
Fixed (or declining) flow of renewable energy
36Old business-as-usual, new business-as-usual and
the sustainability-achieving economy
- The old business-as-usual economy is based on
physical expansion, resource throughput and only
(sometimes scant) attention to local
environmental problems - The new business-as-usual is beginning to
emerging in response to climate change and other
environmental crises it is using a new
generation of technologies to make a big
reduction in externalities but it does not
attempt to fully eliminate externalities so it
will face new crises down the track as the
economy grows - The sustainability-achieving green growth
paradigm is based on systematically eliminating
externalities so that economic growth does not
periodically recreate major crises.
37Fastest industrial restructuring
- Korea from agricultural nation to world
competitive manufacturing economy in 20 years - US after Pearl Harbor from worlds largest
consumer economy to worlds largest war economy
in 1 year
(complete infrastructure change)
(complete change to how infrastructure is used)
38Divide action into a crash program a long
run innovation program
- If any of the calibration or solution changing
issues require major changes to the economy
within a 5-20 year period, they need to be
managed through a formally recognised crash
program - Any issues that will have (a) a big impact on the
economy or (b) must be responded to, but can be
tackled over an extended time period, should be
part of a long run radical invention innovation
program.
39Analyse new economies using supply chains rather
than industry sectors regional economies
- The economy is going to have to change so much,
in so many detailed ways, that if we use industry
sectors regional economies as the basis for
analysis and solution building, we will lock in
old (bad) practice and vested interests - Information about transformed industry sectors
regional economies should be created by
aggregating data or ideas about the new supply
chains.
Includes the end of life chains as well to
make up a full lifecycle chain.
40Simplifying the task of dealing with multiple
issues at the level of industry/economy
restructuring
- Pick the issues that have the biggest impact that
cant be ignored or that we cant afford to
ignore (eg. climate change, peak oil, water, food
supply) - Use these issues to work out the maximum scale
speed of action necessary this calibrates the
restructuring (calibration issues) - Identify other important issues that ought to be
taken really seriously where if these issues
are taken into account solutions to the other
issues will need to be changed (eg. biodiversity)
(solution-changing issues) - Deal with all other issues at the level of
detailed implementation of the restructuring
program.
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42Near term economic growth is compatible with a
major once-off restoration of the environment
if..
- the total of all the physical platforms of all
economic output can be changed in character and
shrunk small enough physically to be compatible
with the maintenance of everything that needs to
be sustained, AND - the real value of economic output does not
collapse in the process of physical adjustment
and can keep rising during the transformation
period
43Economic growth is compatible with perpetual
prevention of damage to the environment and of
wastage of resources.
- if the total of all the physical platforms of all
economic output remains small enough and of the
right character physically to be compatible with
the maintenance of everything that needs to be
sustained, AND - the total service flow from economic output can
keep increasing within that constraint
44This means that once basic human physical needs
are met
- all future economic growth is generated through
net qualitative change, not physical expansion,
AND - compatible productivity boosting mechanisms are
tapped
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46What is the character of the physical platform
shrinkage and change?
- A Factor 20 or more dematerialisation (for
developed countries), and then maintenance of a
capped quantity of materials and energy for all
purposes (Developing countries will also need to
dematerialise inefficient sectors and
processes) - The creation of a virtually closed-loop economy
(everything recycled) - Stabilisation of population (after gentle
shrinkage??) - Declining use of oil from now
- Effectively zero greenhouse gas emissions
- Full transition to renewable energy
- Sequestration of past greenhouse gas emissions to
stay below or get below 400 ppm CO2 fast and to
trend towards 300 to 280 ppm over time - Major restoration of habitat for threatened
species - Move to zero toxic emissions
- etc.
47How can service flow be boosted in perpetuity?
- via improved qualities
- via more qualities
- that benefit the user and the environment/communit
y - achieving this depends on compatible sources of
productivity growth - and this depends on continuing innovation to
overcome diminishing returns
48Major sources of productivity growth that neednt
drive physical expansion and can co-exist with
physical contraction
- Lean production / closed-cycle production
- Increased knowledge information intensity /
intensified education - Internet communications
- Fast, needs-based leapfrogging-innovation system
driven by sustainability transition - Whole-system design
- Green chemistry / nanotechnology / biotechnology
(miniaturisation) - Physical proximity (new model of urban form)
- Reduced scale therefore opportunity to mass
produce/speed up creation of production capacity
infrastructure - Reduced environmental damage / reduced wastage
- Full employment
- Artificial intelligence
49Old Sources of productivity diminished by shift
from physically growing economy
New Sources of productivity boosted by shift to
environmentally sustainable economy
- Cheap physical resources and abundant supply
(materials, energy, water, land) (But this source
of productivity is being constrained anyway) - Quick and easy single-purpose decision-making on
most things (but leads often to poor/low wisdom
decision-making)
- Speed and ease of proximity (in urban design)
- Increased skills in whole-system design opening
up greater access to leapfrog innovation - Necessarily ubiquitous application of lean
thinking - Necessarily ubiquitous application of smart
technology and AI - Low levels of health/environment damage
- More highly skilled workforce / community
- Reduced real expenditure on raw materials
- Drag on economy released due to low unemployment
/ underemployment
50Can the necessary short-term physical
shrinkage/change be achieved without collapsing
economic growth?
- Arguably yes, if there is sufficient innovation
to keep boosting productivity, and - there is enough time, so that normal investment
levels can cover the restructuring, or - for a short-duration transition,
-
there is a big enough increase in investment,
with temporary shrinkage of discretionary
consumption, plus really effective redeployment
of sunk capital (cf. WW2 US)
51Theory of natural capital
- In perpetuity Natural capital as
infrastructure with service flow ecosystem
services and renewable resource flow - Once-off draw down / economic take off /
payback restoration/resequestration is the
payback those who benefit from the drawdown
(through economic take-off) should pay for the
restoration (eg. fossil energy use gt CO2
resequestration)
52Theory of rationing, ecotaxation related
instruments
- Rationing, ecotaxes ( related economic
instruments) are regulatory tools they should
be managed for regulatory effect in innovative
system revenue should fall if ecotaxes are
effective - The way revenue is recycled from auctioned
rations, ecotaxes etc. is critical to maximising
productivity and minimising inflation
53How can we avoid rebound?
- Through macroeconomic management using
- rations
- ecotaxes
- tradable permits
- regulation
- Rebound is a symptom of the failure of
macroeconomic management. - Rebound is also a symptom of 300 year old
institutional arrangements that cause resources
to become systematically cheaper than labour
intensive products (factor price problem).
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55Positive correlations
- In the developed world, generally the countries
and provinces with the strongest environmental
controls have the strongest economies. - In the developed world, generally the countries
and provinces with the strongest environmental
controls have the leading exports of related
technologies
56Questions for workshop(following)
57Questions Framing issues
- How much development do we need for social
reasons? (The more economic development we want
the stronger our environmental policies need to
be to get 100 decoupling.) - How big and how urgent does the environmental
restructuring program need to be? How will the
crash program and the long run innovation
program run? - How do we want to position our economies within
the world economy? - in relation to (a) the old
business-as-usual, (b) the new business-as-usual
and (c) the new sustainability-achieving elements
of the economy?
58Questions Backcasting strategy methodology
- Where are we now? (judged by success principles)
- Where do we want to be, when?(with the least
loss along the way)(based on success principles) - What do we have to do to get there, in time?
- For an effective start, what should we do now?
59More questions for workshop session - 3
- What would an appropriate green growth strategy
be for your society? - What are the supply chains that make up your
economy? How well do the end purposes and the
elements of the supply chains fit with an ideal
sustainability-achieving economy? - What changes need to be made to the supply chain
profile of your economy if it is to be
sustainability-achieving? - How should your economy relate to the old
business-as-usual, new business-as-usual and
sustainability-achieving elements of current or
new export markets?
60Tools to help with the questions(following)
61So, where do we want to be, when?
Pulling all the issues together
- we want to be in an environmentally sustainable
state as soon as possible, with the least loss
(to people and nature) along the way - exactly what that means should be determined by
careful assessment the ideas in this paper are
merely a crude illustration of such an assessment
process - the assessment process in this paper suggests
that - possibly we have an immediate issue to deal with
the peaking of world oil supply requiring major
and continuing demand reductions to rebalance
supply/demand - at the same time we need to make massively deep
cuts in greenhouse emissions (down to zero?) and
begin sequestration of past emissions - at the same time as these transitions are made,
solutions to other pressing environmental, social
and economic issues should be built in so that
timely solutions are not pre-empted and
opportunities for economies of renewal are not
lost this is comparable to the advantages that
have accrued to economies rebuilding after the
devastation of major wars
62Major end-state integrated goals
- To create an environmentally sustainable economy
very fast - To be the global pioneer of the full
environmentally sustainable economy paradigm - To create economies based on the new
quality-driven paradigm - Having used the low wage strategy to kick start
economic take-off, to end the dependence on this
strategy for driving economic growth - To spread the benefits of the new economy through
the whole of society
63What do we have to do to get there, in time? 1
- Educate decision-makers and innovators in areas
of society about the need for change, the
possibilities for change and the
methods/technologies for change - Build institutional capability to drive fast
structural change to achieve an environmentally
sustainable economy - Proactively seek the most environmentally
demanding customers in the global economy - Preferentially encourage the most creative
environmentally minded investors to be active in
the region - Develop very strong sustainability RD and
innovation programs - Make sure that all long-lived investments are
compatible with an environmentally sustainable
economy
64What do we have to do to get there, in time? 2
- Try to shorten the lifecycle of traditionally
very long-lived infrastructure - Lobby to establish international treaty
obligations to mandate the adoption of production
systems that are compatible with an
environmentally-sustainable economy - Build the most advanced environmentally
sustainable urban systems - Expand the domestic and regional economy and
build it on environmental sustainability
principles - Build a social movement to promote the rapid
achievement of an environmentally-sustainable
economy
65For an effective start, what should we do now?
Catalyse change
- create methods and scenarios for the fast
achievement of an environmentally sustainable
economy use these for discussion ( then
action) - create a network of professionals to build skills
and promote the idea, within mainstream society,
of creating an environmentally sustainable
economy - Promote the Race to Sustainability program as a
way of engaging societieshttp//www.green-innova
tions.asn.au/Race-to-Sustainability.htm
66The principle of eco-efficiency(dematerialisation
)
- Aim for Factor x improvements in eco-efficiency
- Dont lock into arbitrary Factor 4 or Factor 10
goals - Calculate afresh
See Dutch Sustainable Technology
Development book
67The principle of closed-cycle
- Power with renewable energy
68Strategies/initiatives forzero waste - 1
- Physical products and materials energy should
be managed to retain their entropic quality as
long as possible through combined processes such
as
- Maintenance / containment
- Repair
- Reuse (whole systems)
- Re-manufacture (component reuse plus)
- Reprocessing / waste warehousing
- Up-cycling
69A new waste hierarchy for a zero waste society
70Philip Sutton Green Innovations 19 May
2002 Version 2.e
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72How can we drive the change?
73Introducing broad-based ecotaxation
74Introducing broad-based ecotaxation
75Opportunities for economic growth in a physically
constrained world
Zone of intermediation
The living world(includes humans)
The social world
Benefit
Benefit
Expansion of coverage by service ofthe
population
Improvementof service quality
Carefully manage interface
Carefully manage interface
Impact
Impact
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77Managing for sustainability-promotion through
the business cycle
Spread new paradigm
Cost saving, risk management
Cost saving, risk management
customer loyalty measures
customer loyalty measures
Peak 2
Peak 1
Early movers explore
Early movers
explore
Reach consensus on new paradigm
Sell new paradigm products
Start new investments
Prepare initiatives
Start regulatory taxes
Lock in initiatives
Downswing 2
Downswing 1
Upswing 1
Trough 2
Trough 1
Year X
Year X1
Year X2
Year X3
Year X4
Year X5
Year X7
Year X9
Year X6
Year X8
78Modelling the green growth program
- To understand proposed or real economies that are
intended to be ecologically sustainable it is
essential to model both the money economy and
also the physical economy (from the macro to the
micro level - The green growth / sustainable economy
transformation will involve so many micro
initiatives that need to be assessed for their
aggregated macro effects that new modelling
technology will be needed - The only technique that can deal with this level
of necessary detail and policy flexibility is
agent based modelling. All players in society
will need to be able to access whole economy
agent based simulations to test their initiatives
to make sure that they add up to a sustainable
outcome.
79Making the Green Growth Strategypossible
803 stages to make the strategy feasible
Creating a mandate
Developing the mandate
Implementing the mandate
81Motivations - ethical
- Caring for local people
- Caring for future generations
- Caring for people globally
- Caring for nature, locally and globally
- For example 2400 years before current era,
during the Warring States period, Chinese
philosopher Mozi (??) argued that we need to act
on universal, not partial love. Compassion for
all life, human and non-human, is central to
Jainism, a philosophy of even greater antiquity
founded in India.
82Motivations (pragmatic) - threat
- Food security, risk of widespread famine
- Economic viability
- Risk of global depression, armed conflict.
- We stand in relationship to climate change and
its consequences where people stood, in 1900, in
relation to WW1 (and its aftermath - the
Depression, WW2 and the Cold War).
83Motivations (pragmatic) - opportunity
- Chance for viable/sustainable development
- Opportunity to seize competitive advantage
leapfrog to success - Chance to build a highly innovative and creative
culture - Opportunity to show leadership, wisdom and
courage.
84Strategies to promote the feasibility of the
Green Growth Strategy - 1
- Obtain a formal declaration of a State of
Sustainability Emergency - Develop a self-generating network of people to
promote effective action - Carry out widespread education training
- Work with innovators and professionals across
government, industry and general community - Create /or develop centres for innovation and
strategy development link globally - Use concurrent engineering methods (multiple
actions in parallel) to get faster development
and implementation of strategies.
85Strategies to promote the feasibility of the
Green Growth Strategy - 2
- Campaign to change the World Trade Organisation
rules so that countries can discriminate against
imports on the basis of their inferior methods of
production - Press the rich countries to establish a
multilateral new Marshall Plan for large scale
sustainability investment.
86Questions for workshop(following)
87Questions for workshop session
- What barriers do you see to a Green Growth
Strategy being feasible in your society? - How could a Green Growth Strategy be made
feasible for your society? - How can elites be engaged? How can the community
at large be engaged? - What combinations of motivations could be tapped
for greatest effect? - How can innovation and education processes be put
into motion in your society? - How can resources be mobilised to catalyse the
needed transformation?
88Thank you