Steps Toward a Final Capacity Metric and Target

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Steps Toward a Final Capacity Metric and Target

• Resource Adequacy Technical CommitteeAugust 24,
  2007

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Outline

• Current energy metric assumptions
• Resource assumptions
• Capacity metric assumptions
• Proposed revisions

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Energy Metric AssumptionsAnnual Average
Load/Resource Balance

• Load
• Averaged over all hours of the year
• Based on normal weather
• Includes net interregional firm contracts
• Resources include
• Uncommitted IPP generation (see next slide)
• Critical-year hydroelectric generation
• A 1,500 average megawatt planning adjustment
  (derived from the LOLP analysis) accounting for
  out-of-region spot markets and non-firm hydro
  generation

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Resource Assumptions

• Uncommitted IPPs
• From Nov-May full IPP capability is included
• From Jun-Oct only the capability from those IPPs
  that do not have intertie access are included
• Out-of-region spot market
• 3,000 MW max per hour from Nov-May
• Zero MW from Jun-Oct
• Non-firm hydro
• Some amount of hydro above critical generation
• Hydro flexibility (drafting below rule curves for
  short periods)

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Capacity Metric AssumptionsSurplus Sustained
Peaking Capability

• Load
• Averaged over the peak-load duration hours
• Based on normal weather
• Includes net interregional firm contracts
• Resources include
• Uncommitted IPP generation
• Critical-year hydroelectric generation
• A sustained peaking planning adjustment (derived
  from the LOLP analysis) accounting for
  out-of-region spot markets and non-firm hydro
  generation

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Proposed Revisions

• Energy Break up planning adjustment into
• Hydro greater than critical and
• Out-of-region market
• Capacity Define a planning adjustment for each
  month broken out into
• Hydro greater than critical and
• Out-of-region market

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Proposed Revisions

• Define significant curtailment events for
• Energy
• Capacity
• Run entire year in hourly mode
• Resources should be sufficient to limit a future
  years exposure to a significant event to no more
  than the desired likelihood (e.g. 5 percent)
• Assess energy and capacity monthly targets from
  this scenario