Title: Transport and Sustainability
1Transport and Sustainability
- Seminar by Dr. George C. Eads
- Vice President, CRA International
- Canberra, Australia
- December 9, 2005
2Presentation outline
- The World Business Council for Sustainable
Development and the Sustainable Mobility Project - The SMPs definition of sustainable mobility
- Seven goals identified by the SMP for improving
the sustainability of mobility - Goal-by-goal review
- SMPs bottom line conclusion about whether
mobility can be made sustainable
3The World Business Council for Sustainable
Development (WBCSD)
- A coalition of 170 international companies united
by a share commitment to sustainable development
via the three pillars of economic growth,
ecological balance, and social progress - WBCSD members are drawn from more than 35
countries and 20 major industrial sectors - WBCSD issues reports that are the responsibility
of the entire membership also provides the
process, quality control, and outreach for
member-led sector projects - The Sustainable Mobility Project (SMP) was a
member-led sector project I was its lead
consultant, but report I will be summarizing was
issued on the responsibility of the members
4SMP members
5The SMP Final Report Mobility 2030
- Defines sustainable mobility and provides
indicators for measuring it - Provides a frank assessment of outlook if present
trends continue - Proposes seven goals for improving outlook
- Provides metrics for measuring attainment of
several of these goals
Using spreadsheet model developed jointly by
SMP and IEA
Report and supporting material (including
spreadsheet model and documentation)
available at www.sustainablemobility.org
6SMPs definition of sustainable mobility
- The ability to meet the needs of society to move
freely, gain access, communicate, trade and
establish relationships without sacrificing other
essential human or ecological values today or in
the future.
7SMPs indicators of sustainable mobility
- Access to mobility
- Monetary cost to users
- Travel time
- Reliability and comfort
- Safety
- Security
- Greenhouse gas emissions
- Impact on environment and public well-being
- Resource use
- Impact on public revenues and expenditures
- Equity implications
- Prospective rate of return to private business
Mobility users
Society as a whole, as represented by governments
Mobility providers
- Governments reflect at least three distinct
societal perspectives - As internalizer of externalities (7, 8 and
9) - As fiscal agent (10)
- As promoter of equity (11)
8SMPs seven goals for improving the
sustainability of mobility
- Reduce conventional emissions from transport to
levels where they do not constitute a significant
public health concern anywhere in the world - Limit GHG emissions from transport to sustainable
levels - Reduce the number of transport-related deaths and
injuries worldwide - Reduce transport-related noise
- Mitigate traffic congestion
- Narrow mobility opportunity divides
- Preserve and enhance mobility opportunities
available to the general population
9Goal 1 Eliminate transport-related conventional
emissions as a significant public health concern
anywhere in the world
- We believe that in the developed world this goal
will be achieved by 2030. Indeed, it might be
achieved as early as 2020.In the developing
world, it should be possible to reduce
transport-related conventional pollutants to well
below the levels in our reference case. It is
not realistic to expect the stated goal to be
achieved throughout the developing world as soon
as it is achieved in the developed world. - Mobility 2030 Overview, pp. 20-21
10Example Projected transport-related NOx
emissionsDeveloped world (left panel) and
developing world (right panel)
11Impact of lags of different length in adoption of
standards by the non-OECD countries
Non-OECD regions Nitrogen Oxide (NOx) emissions
by year depending on the time lag in implementing
developed world emissions standards
Time lag used in reference case
12Building blocks for reducing transport-related
emissions
- Advanced vehicle emissions control technologies
- Unleaded gasoline and lower sulphur fuels
- Four-stroke engines and advanced emissions
controls for two and three wheelers - Technologies for monitoring in-use performance
political will to use these technologies
13Challenges to achieving goal
- Affordability to consumers of advanced pollution
control equipment, especially in developing world - Time lags
- In the adoption of standards
- In fleet turnover
- Actual in-use performance
- Resolving issues of vehicle and fuel
interdependence - Political and cultural acceptance
14Goal 2 Limit transport-related GHG emissions to
sustainable levels
- We accept that societys long-term goal should
be nothing less than to eliminate transportation
as a major source of greenhouse gas emissions.
Yet even under the most favorable circumstances,
achieving this goal will take longer than the
time frame of this report - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 21.
15Share of worldwide GHG emissions associated with
transport activity
Source IEA WEO 2002 SMP calculations
Data for 2000
16Reference case transport-related GHG emissions
Projection by region
17Reference case transport-related GHG emissions
Projection by transport mode
18Building blocks for reducing transport-related
GHG emissions
- Transport-related GHG emissions ASIF
- Activity (volume of passenger and freight
travel) - Structure (shares by mode, utilization factors,
and vehicle type) - Intensity (fuel use per unit of vehicle
activity) - Fuel type (GHG characteristics of fuel used)
19A times S Transport demandSMPs
projections of future personal and goods
transport demand
20I times F Emissions per unit of transport
demandFuel and vehicle characteristics examined
by SMP
21Challenge to achieving goal
- Even if implemented worldwide, diesels and
hybrid ICEs fueled with conventional gasoline and
diesel fuel, or fuel cells fueled by natural
gas-derived hydrogen, can no more than slow the
growth in road transport CO2 emissions during the
period 2000-2050. Only the use of carbon-neutral
hydrogen in fuel cells and advanced biofuels in
ICE-powered vehicles can largely or totally
offset the growth in CO2 emissions produced by
the growth in road travel during the period
2000-2050.
22Illustration of challenge
-
- Project conducted two simulations
- Impact on well-to-wheel GHG emissions from road
vehicles of individual technologies at very high
levels of market penetration - Possible combination of strategies that would
return well-to-wheel road vehicle emissions to
their 2000 levels by 2050 - In both simulations, no account was taken of cost
or customer acceptance
23What are well to wheel emissions?
- GHG emissions are produced both during the
production and distribution of transport fuel
(well to tank emissions) and during the
combustion of the fuel (tank to wheels
emissions) - Total transport-related emissions are the sum of
the two (well to wheels emissions) - It is this sum that must be reduced
-
- Next chart shows the importance of using well
to wheels measure of emissions
24ICEs (SI and CI)
Hybrids
Fuel Cells
25Simulation 1 Impact of individual technologies
- Assumptions
- Diesel ICE technology (using conventional diesel
fuel) assumed to have 18 fuel consumption
benefit versus prevailing gasoline ICE
technology during entire period - Gasoline hybrids assumed to have 30 advantage
versus the prevailing gasoline ICE technology
diesel hybrids, a 36 advantage fuel cell
vehicles, a 45 advantage - Diesels and advanced hybrids reach 100 sales
penetration (worldwide) by 2030 in light-duty
vehicles and medium-duty trucks - Fuel cells reach 100 sales penetration
(worldwide) by 2050 hydrogen produced by
reforming natural gas, no carbon sequestration - For carbon neutral hydrogen, change WTT
emissions characteristics of the hydrogen used in
fuel cell case above - For biofuels, assume would be used in a world
road vehicle fleet similar in energy use
characteristics to the SMP reference fleet
Actual fleet-average in-use emissions not
theoretically possible emissions
26Results of simulation 1(Caution results for
individual technologies cannot be added together)
27Simulation 2 --- Combined technology strategy
- Applied five technology increments in order
shown (are additive, but order matters) - Dieselisation. For light-duty vehicles and
medium-duty trucks, rises to around 45 globally
by 2030. - Hybridisation. For light-duty vehicles and
medium-duty trucks increases to half of all ICE
vehicles sold by 2030. - Conventional and advanced biofuels. The quantity
of biofuels in the total worldwide gasoline and
diesel pool rises steadily, reaching one-third by
2050. - Fuel cells using hydrogen derived from fossil
fuels (no carbon sequestration). Mass market
sales of light-duty vehicles and medium-duty
trucks start in 2020 and rise to half of all
vehicle sales by 2050. - Carbon neutral hydrogen used in fuel cells.
Hydrogen sourcing for fuel cells switches to
centralized production of carbon-neutral hydrogen
over the period 2030-2050 once hydrogen LDV
fleets reach significant penetration at a country
level. By 2050, 80 of hydrogen is produced by
carbon-neutral processes. - Assumptions of effectiveness of technologies
identical to those used in Simulation 1
28Results of Simulation 2
Impact of increments 1 through 5
29The five technology/fuel increments do not
achieve goal of returning road vehicle well to
wheels GHG emissions to their 2000 level by 2050
- Two additional increments required
- Additional fleet-level vehicle energy efficiency
improvement. SMP reference case projects an
average improvement in the energy efficiency of
the on-road light-duty vehicle fleet of about
0.4 per year. We assume that the average annual
in-use fleet-level improvement rises by an
additional10 (i.e., from about 0.4 to about
0.6). - A 10 reduction in emissions due to better
traffic flow and other efficiency improvements in
road vehicle use.
Perhaps due to downsizing or other forms of
mix shifting
30Reducing transport-related GHG emissions -- the
way forward
- Important progress can be made during the next
two or three decades. Prior to 2030, where
economically practical and politically
acceptable, SMP members believe that the
following actions aimed at bending the
transport-related GHG emissions curve downward
should be undertaken - The energy efficiency of transport vehicles
should be improved consistent with customer
acceptance and cost-effectiveness. - The technological foundation should be laid for
the eventual elimination of the effects of fossil
carbon in transport fuel.... - Where new fuel infrastructures are required to
permit the eventual elimination of the effects of
fossil carbon in transport fuel, planning should
be undertaken and, if practical, construction
should begin. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 21
-
31Goal 3 Reduce Road-Related Deaths and Injuries
- All countries should pursue aggressive
strategies to reduce the number of
transport-related deaths and injuries,
especially deaths and injuries related to road
vehicles.Programs to reduce deaths and serious
injuries should address the full range of factors
contributing to vehicle-related deaths and
serious injuries, including driver behavior,
improvements in infrastructure, and the
development and deployment of improved
technologies for crash avoidance and injury
mitigation. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 22.
- relative to our reference case projections
32Reference case projections of road-related deaths
Reference Case 1
Reference Case 2
Source Analysis by Koornstra conducted for SMP
33There are sharp regional differences in who is
being killed today in road crashes
34Goal 4 Reduce transport-related noise
- While different localities can place quite
different priorities on the importance of dealing
with transport-related noise a common set of
elements from which communities might develop a
noise-reduction strategyincludes using road
surfaces that significantly dampen noise,
constructing noise barriers in noise-sensitive
areas enacting and enforcing regulations
restricting the modification of vehicles in ways
that create greater noise and/or allow such
vehicles to be operated in a manner that produces
unnecessary noise and continuing to improve the
noise performance of transport vehicles. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.
35Goal 5 Mitigate congestion
- Transportation congestion cannot be completely
eliminated without destroying transports vital
role in enabling economic growth. But its
effects can be substantially mitigated - Infrastructure capacity can be expanded to
accommodate demand-led growth.But in the SMPs
view, building additional transport capacity
should never be the only (or even the principal)
approach to mitigating congestion. (emphasis
added) - Infrastructure planning can be focused
increasingly on the elimination of choke points
that prevent critical elements of transport
infrastructure from being used efficiently. - Where practical and politically acceptable,
transport demand growth can be absorbed by making
better use of existing mobility systems and
infrastructure. Pricing strategies of various
types are being used in an increasing number of
places, although their use remains
controversial. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.
36Goal 6 Narrow the most serious mobility
opportunity divides
- Many of the worlds peoples are hampered in
their efforts to better their lives by poor
mobility opportunities. In some of the poorest
countries and regions, mobility opportunities are
a small fraction of what they are in the rest of
the world. - And in most countries, there are large
differences in the mobility opportunities enjoyed
by the average citizen and members of certain
groups the poorest, the handicapped and
disabled, the elderly, etc. - These mobility opportunity divides must be
narrowed if mobility is to become sustainable. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 23.
37One indicator of the size of the gap in mobility
opportunities between wealthier and poorer regions
38Two approaches to reducing mobility opportunity
divides between more developed and less developed
regions
- Improve road infrastructure so people everywhere
have access to all-weather roads - Provide inexpensive, safe, clean mobility systems
- Concern about possible increases in GHG
emissions should not be used as a reason to block
such improvements countries in the worlds more
developed regions must make room for mobility
improvements in the worlds less developed
regions
39Increase mobility opportunities available to
certaindisadvantaged groups in all countries --
even mobility rich countries
- Mobility opportunities available to certain
groups in almost every country are limited - The elderly
- The disabled
- The economically disadvantaged
- Certain disadvantaged racial and ethnic groups
- Deficit in mobility opportunities available to
these groups contributes to their social and
economic exclusion
40Two approaches to reducing mobility opportunity
divides within all countries even mobility
rich countries
- Where feasible, tailor conventional public
transport services to meet the needs of these
mobility-disadvantaged groups - Increase use of alternatives to conventional
public transport such as paratransit utilize ITS
technologies to improve the service
characteristics and reduce the costs of these
alternative systems
41Goal 7 Preserve and improve the mobility
opportunities available to the general population
- The mobility opportunities available today to
the general population of most developed-world
countries (and in many developing-world
countries) greatly exceed those of any period in
the past. However, the changes in urban living
pattern that Mobility 2030 notes as adversely
impacting the mobility opportunities of the
poorest, the elderly, the handicapped and
disabled, and the disadvantaged also threaten to
erode the mobility opportunities of many average
citizens. - In particular, the ability of conventional
public transport systems to perform their vital
role in personal mobility is being threatened. - During the next several decades, a primary goal
should be to preserve these mobility options. At
the same time, new mobility systems that could be
sustainable in a future urbanized/suburbanized
world need to be developed and their
implementation begun. - Mobility 2030 Overview, p. 25.
42Even where public transport is of very high
quality, itoften cannot come close to meeting
everyones total personal mobility needs
Personal transport modal usage in Paris (Central
Paris and first ring)
Percent of respondents
- Arrondissements I XX
- Departments of Hauts de Seine, Seine Saint
Denis, and Val de Marne - Source Renault
43Challenge becomes even greater once one moves
outside the urban core and trips to and from
that core
Daily Trips by Mode in the Paris Region
Ile de France region outside Central Paris and
First Ring
4413.2 of daily trips
5.9 of daily trips
14.3 of daily trips
Total 33.4 of daily trips
45Illustration Paris region as a whole
Total 66.6 of daily trips
8.8 of daily trips
22.8 of daily trips
35.0 of daily trips
46While conventional public transport systems will
continue to play a vital role in monocentric
urban areas, societies should develop new
mobility systems
- These systems should combine flexibility provided
by private vehicle with cost and efficiency
characteristics of public transport - Goal should be to fit characteristics of mobility
systems to the needs and desires of people rather
than the reverse - Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) systems
- Advanced paratransit
- Shared-use vehicle services (car sharing)
- Possibly in the future, fully automated systems
47Mobility 2030s bottom line conclusion
- Mobility can be made sustainable, but . . .
- There is no single magic technological
solution a portfolio of solutions is required - Some goals can be achieved by 2030, especially in
the Worlds more developed regions, but others
will take longer - Achieving sustainable mobility will require
coordinated efforts, starting now, by all
elements of society business, government,
public - Sustainable mobility cannot be achieved without
the active involvement of the developing world
48Thank you for your attention
49Global dialogue
Tokyo
Nagoya
50Assurance group
- Advice on quality and integrity of substance and
process - Members
- Rt Hon Simon Upton (Chair) New Zealand
- Mr. David Ashley Australia
- Professor John Heywood USA
- Professor Peter Jones Great Britain
- Professor Suzana Kahn Ribiero Brazil
- Profesor Martin Wachs USA
- Professor Akio Morishima Japan
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