Current

1
Current Future Ecological Responses to Climate
Change
2090-2099 IPCC, 2007

• Dr. Heather Throop
• NMSU Biology

2
Climatology is easy
2090-2099 IPCC, 2007

• Complexities of understanding biological
  responses
• interactions between organisms
• short vs. long term patterns
• extremes, not averages, may be important

3
Climate Change Does Not Occur in a Vacuum

• Increasing urbanization and sprawl
• Landscape fragmentation
• Air water pollution
• Elevated atmospheric CO2

4
Ways to Study Ecological Impacts

• Observations
• Manipulative experiments
• Computer simulations

Natural Environment Research Council, UK
5

• 4th Assessment Report -- 2007
• Consensus report
• gt1200 authors
• gt2500 expert reviewers
• gt130 countries

6
There is medium confidence that approximately
20-30 of species assessed so far are likely to
be at increased risk of extinction if increases
in global average warming exceed 1.5-2.5ºC
(relative to 1980-1999). As global average
temperature exceeds about 3.5ºC, model
projections suggest significant extinctions
(40-70 of species assessed) around the
globe. IPCC, SPM 2007
7
Biological Impacts

• Physiology
• Phenology (timing)
• Community composition disease
• Range shifts

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Biological Impacts

• Physiology
• Phenology (timing)
• Community composition disease
• Range shifts

EXTINCTIONS
9
Phenology

• Timing of a biological activity
• Examples
• Spring leaf-out
• Fall leaf drop
• Migratory bird arrival

10
Earlier Spring Events

• Documented Shifts Earlier
• Flowering leafing, Europe N. America (1 - 3
  days earlier/decade)
• Butterfly breeding, UK
• Amphibian breeding, UK
• Bird migration breeding, Europe N. America

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Summary of spring phenology 61 studies, 694
species, past 50 years
Root et al. (2003) Nature
12
Pied Flycatcher, The Netherlands Mismatch
between timing of hatching food abundance ?
population declines
Early caterpillar peak
Late caterpillar peak
Both et al. (2006) Nature
13
Later Fall Events?

• Less clear than spring
• Delay of leaf color changes in Europe

14
Community Composition

• Climate changes may affect species differentially
• Changes in abundance of one species (including
  pathogens) may affect other species

15
Southern Switzerland
Walther et al. 2002 Nature
16
Climate change likely to increase
severity/frequency of disease outbreaks ?
population declines extinctions
Protozoan on monarchs
Fungus - sea fans
Distemper outbreak - lions
Fungus - leaves
C. D. Harvell et al. (2002) Science
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Hawaii 60 of 100 endemic bird species currently
extinct
Harvell et al. (2002) Science
Benning et al. (2002) Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci.
18
Coral Bleaching

• Corals highly vulnerable to thermal stress
• 1-3ºC sea surface temperature increases
  frequent bleaching, widespread mortality

Photos Wikipedia.org
19
Range Shifts

• Climate changes affect species range
• Changes in
• Latitude (towards poles)
• Elevation

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Range Shifts

• Summary including gt1,700 species
• recent biological trends match climate change
  predictions
• range shifts average
• 6.1 km/decade toward the poles
• OR 6.1 m/decade upward

Parmesan Yohe (2003) Nature
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Other Range Shifts

• Treeline Europe New Zealand
• Arctic alpine plants Alps, Alaska
• 1-4 m/decade
• Birds in Britain
• 19 km N in 20 years
• Foxes, Canada

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Can we count on range shifts as a solution?
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• I hope I have justified the conviction, shared
  by many thoughtful people from all walks of life,
  that the problem can be solved. Adequate
  resources exist. Those who control them have many
  reasons to achieve that goal, not least their own
  security. In the end, however, success or failure
  will come down to an ethical decision, one on
  which those now living will be defined and judged
  for all generations to come.
• E.O. Wilson (2001) The Future of Life