David M. Legler

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CLIVAR Welcome Climate Diagnostics and Prediction
Workshop/CLIVAR Drought Workshop October 2008

• David M. Legler
• U.S. CLIVAR Office
• U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability
  Program
• www.usclivar.org
• legler_at_usclivar.org

Thanks to these additional sponsors
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CLIVAR (Climate Variability and Predictability)
CLIVAR is an multidisciplinary research effort
within the World Climate Research Programme
(WCRP) focusing on the variability and
predictability of the slowly varying components
of the climate system. CLIVAR coordinates
activities in support of its mission to observe,
simulate and predict Earths climate system, with
focus on ocean-atmosphere interactions, enabling
better understanding of climate variability,
predictability and change, to the benefit of
society and the environment in which we live.
http//www.clivar.org
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CLIVAR - Principal Research Areas
weeks - seasons - interannual seasons -
interannual - decadal decadal -
centennial
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CLIVAR Drought Workshop, Wed-Fri

• Observing and monitoring drought
• Drought impacts, products, and addressing user
  needs
• Simulating drought
• Mechanisms that contribute to drought
• Predictability of drought/prediction capabilities
• Understanding and attribution of drought and its
  impacts
• incorporating climate predictions /projections in
  the development and delivery of drought products
  to meet societal needs

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• DRICOMP (DRought In COupled Models) Project
• Follow-on to CMEP (Coupled Model Evaluation
  Project) which was the kernel that lead to a
  large international workshop (Hawaii) and many
  papers that contributed to the IPCC FAR.
• DRICOMP Evaluation of existing relevant model
  simulations
• CMIP3, Paleo Models, NARCCAP, SMIP, C20C

Aims Identify and characterize physical and
dynamical mechanisms leading to drought and the
mechanisms through which drought may change as
climate changes. Diagnose simulation of drought
in current models.
17 projects - supported by NOAA, NASA, NSF, and
DOE
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Drought Working Group (16 members CLIVAR,
GEWEX, Service Providers, International
Scientists)

• http//www.usclivar.org/Organization/drought-wg.ht
  ml

• Defining drought (observations and related model
  predictands)
• Coordinating key aspects of the (US) long-term
  drought research agenda outlined in the 2005
  drought workshop recommendations

• Coordinated Global Model Experiments Addressing
  the Role of SSTs and Soil Moisture in Regional
  Drought
• Multiple modelling groups performed identical
  idealized experiments to address issues of model
  dependence on the response to SSTs (and the role
  of soil moisture), and to look in more detail at
  the physical mechanisms linking the SST changes
  to drought
• All runs 50 years, fixed SST patterns added to
  seasonally varying SST climatology
• Participating groups/models NASA (NSIPP1),
  Lamont(CCM3), NCEP(GFS), GFDL (AM2.1), NCAR
  (CAM3.5), and COLA/Univ. of Miami/ (CCM3.0)

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WCRP Extremes
GEWEX and CLIVAR have agreed to catalyze
coordinate an international focus on drought

• Goals
• To summarize, compare and assess definition(s) of
  climate extremes and develop a common language
  amongst researchers and end users.
• To design an intercomparison framework through
  which both observations, model representations of
  extremes projections of climate can be assessed
  by which changes in climate extremes can be
  better evaluated.
• To accelerate progress on the prediction of
  climate extremes with a focus on developing
  capabilities and products which facilitate
  practical applications for stakeholders (end
  users/constituents) regions around the world.
• To assess and improve the observational and
  dataset framework for study of global extremes
• To determine how extremes are changing and
  varying and why (including their relationship to
  mean variables, physical factors, shape of pdf
  etc).

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Have a great workshop!
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U.S. CLIVAR Outlook
Two Major Opportunities Identified I
Drought II Decadal Variability Prediction

• US CLIVAR will continue to focus special effort
  in the interagency and intra-agency context on
  these topics
• US CLIVAR panels will continue their
  coordination, and other activities addressing
  major research needs, including many that
  intersect CPPA
• US CLIVAR welcomes ideas for new Working Groups
  (contact Panel co-chairs)
• CPPA community should continue working with US
  and Intl CLIVAR

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U.S. CLIVAR Organization
US CLIVAR Scientific Steering Committee
Inter-Agency Group (IAG) Federal Program Managers
Committee
U.S. CLIVAR Office
Best Practices Research Priorities Coordination
Predictability, Predictions Applications
Interface (PPAI)
Panels
Phenomenology, Observations, Synthesis (POS)
Process Studies Model improvement (PSMI)

• As of September 2008
• Ocean Salinity (completed)
• MJO (completedIntl development)
• Drought
• Western Boundary Current
• High-latitude fluxes
• Decadal Prediction (to be considered)
• IESA (to be considered)

International CLIVAR
Working Groups (short-term)
Working Groups