Thinking Forward, Thinking Foresight

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Thinking Forward, Thinking Foresight

• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK
• Michael.Keenan_at_man.ac.uk
• Presentation for the conference Technology
  Foresight Improved Public Policies for Citizens
  within ERA, Bucharest, Feb 12th 2003

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Essential Elements of Foresight

• Structured anticipation and projections of
  long-term social, economic and technological
  developments and needs.
• Interactive and participative methods of
  exploratory debate, analysis and study, involving
  a wide variety of stakeholders, are also
  characteristic of Foresight (as opposed to many
  traditional futures studies that tend to be the
  preserve of experts).
• These interactive approaches involve forging new
  social networks. Emphasis on the networking role
  varies across Foresight programmes. It is often
  taken to be equally, if not more, important than
  the more formal products such as reports and
  lists of action points.

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Essential Elements of Foresight

• The formal products of Foresight go beyond the
  presentation of scenarios (however stimulating
  these may be), and beyond the preparation of
  plans. What is crucial is the elaboration of a
  guiding strategic vision, to which there can be a
  shared sense of commitment (achieved, in part,
  through the networking processes).
• This shared vision is not a utopia. There has to
  be explicit recognition and explication of the
  implications for present day decisions and
  actions.

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Reasons for emergence of national foresight in
the 1990s

• Distinguish between
• Science policy
• Industrial policy and company motives
• and between
• OECD countries
• Transition and emerging economies

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Science policy motives

• Policymakers seeking to set priorities in face of
  restricted budgets and international competition
• coinciding with biosciences revolution and
  consequences of ICT developments
• Increased policy focus on industry-science
  linkages creating interest in foresight as
  process to build networks

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Industrial policy motives

• Government perspective
• Means to extend horizons of industrial RD
• Logic chain foresight takes firms beyond
  business planning period, hence creates desire to
  innovate, hence increases RD and cooperation
  with the public research system
• Company perspective
• Companies trying to innovate in network economy
  have to manage interfaces with customers,
  suppliers, collaborators, regulators etc.
• Foresight as means of creating shared strategic
  vision which reduces uncertainty

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Transition and emerging economies

• Facing new social and economic situation with
  research system often in poor state and not
  well-connected to new priorities
• Foresight seen as means to help realign research
  system to new situation
• Also as means to raise profile of research in
  politics and economy

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Three generations of Foresight
FIRST GENERATION Technology forecasts
SECOND GENERATION Technology and markets
THIRD GENERATION Technology, markets and the
social dimension
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Key actors
FIRST GENERATION Experts
SECOND GENERATION Academics industry
THIRD GENERATION Academics, industry, Government
social stakeholders
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Programme structure
FIRST GENERATION Science technology
SECOND GENERATION Industry Service Sectors
THIRD GENERATION Thematic Socio-economic Problem
-solving
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Evolving economic rationale for Foresight
FIRST GENERATION Economic planning
SECOND GENERATION Market failure Firms
have Too short horizons
THIRD GENERATION System failure Insufficient
bridging institutions
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Configuring foresight according to rationale and
objectives

• National research priorities
• Multi-sector/field study with common methodology
  and prioritisation system
• Critical technologies exercise
• Building industry-academic networks
• Use foresight to identify strategic areas and
  focus on participative approaches
• Pre-select areas and conduct foresight within
  them with targeted participation

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Configuring (2)

• Realigning and raising profile of research system
• Senior stakeholder participation and political
  positioning
• Themes chosen to cut across old networks
• Increasing industrial horizons
• Thematic or sectoral focus
• Build from existing horizons

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Conclusions (1)

• Foresight is only one policy instrument and is
  not a panacea for all national problems
• International learning has advanced its
  development through 2nd 3rd generations in
  1990s
• Shift from market failure to systems failure
  rationale has emphasised need for foresight
  programmes to change behaviour permanently
• Choice of approach must suit national
  circumstances
• Strong design tension between networking and
  priorities

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Conclusions (2)

• Effects depend upon
• HIGH level commitment
• WIDE participation
• DEEP interaction and
• LONG term view of benefits

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Thank you!

• Dr. Michael Keenan
• PREST, University of Manchester, UK
• michael.keenan_at_man.ac.uk
• http//les1.man.ac.uk/PREST